Perilous Prospects : The Peace Process And The Arab-israeli Military Balance

In this book, the author supplies the first account of the military and security concerns arising out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the recent assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, considering a number of possible futures for the region and their effects on the peace process. Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- List of Tables and Illustrations -- Acknowledgments -- 1 INTRODUCTION -- The "Conventional Balance -- Counting Total Forces -- 2 MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS SALES -- Differences in Economic Size and Level of Military Effort -- Problems in Dollar Comparisons of Military Expenditures and Arms Sales -- What Can Be Learned from Comparisons of Military Expenditures -- Comparisons of Arms Sales and Imports -- The Impact of US Military Assistance -- 3 QUANTITATIVE COMPARISONS: COMPARING MILITARY FORCES BY COUNTRY -- Understanding the Details Behind Quantitative Comparisons of Total Forces -- The Inevitable Limits of Quantitative Comparisons -- 4 THE IMPACT OF QUALITATIVE FACTORS AND THE "REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS -- The Israeli Organizational and "Cultural" Edge -- The Arab Organizational and "Cultural" Problem -- The Qualitative Weaknesses in Arab and Third World Military Forces -- The Qualitative Advantages of Israeli Forces -- The Limits of Israel's Qualitative "Edge -- 5 POSSIBLE WAR FIGHTING OUTCOMES: A DYNAMIC NET ASSESSMENT -- 6 CASE ONE: THE PEACE PROCESS FAILS AND A NEW "INTIFADA" TAKES PLACE -- Palestinian Paramilitary Groups -- The Role of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad -- Other Patterns in Terrorist Activity -- The Palestinian Authority Response -- Conflict in Gaza -- Conflict on the West Bank -- The Palestinian and Israeli Security Problem -- If Peace Should Fail: The Balance of Forces on the West Bank -- The Role of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iran, and Hizbollah in a Conflict in Gaza or the West Bank -- The Impact of the Peace Process on the Military Balance -- 7 CASE TWO: A SYRIAN GRAB FOR THE GOLAN -- Comparing Total Syrian and Israeli Forces: Syrian Capabilities -- Comparing Total Syrian and Israeli Forces: Israeli Capabilities An Attack Through the Golan Heights Before a Peace Settlement with Syria -- An Attack Through the Golan Heights After a Peace Settlement with Syria -- Creating a Secure Peace on the Golan -- The Lebanese Dimension -- 8 CASE THREE: THE COLLAPSE OF THE PEACE PROCESS AND CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND JORDAN -- Jordanian Support of Palestinian Forces in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israel -- Jordanian "Rescue" of Palestinians in the West Bank: Jordanian Re-Occupation of the West Bank -- Arms Control and Security Implications -- 9 CASE FOUR: A JORDANIAN-SYRIAN ALLIANCE-THE EASTERN FRONT -- 10 CASE FIVE: ISLAMIC UPHEAVAL-EGYPTIAN CRISIS WITH ISRAEL -- Egyptian War Fighting Strengths -- Egyptian War Fighting Liabilities -- An Egyptian-Israeli Conflict and the Geography of the Sinai -- Arms Control in the Sinai -- Egypt's Impact on Peace Negotiations and Arms Control -- 11 CASE SIX: A BROAD ISLAMIC UPHEAVAL-EGYPT, JORDAN, AND SYRIA ARE JOINED BY OTHER ARAB STATES -- 12 CASE SEVEN: LIBYAN, IRANIAN, AND IRAQI CONVENTIONAL FORCES -- Libyan Capabilities -- Iranian Capabilities -- Iraqi Capabilities -- The Impact of Libyan, Iranian, and Iraqi Conventional Capabilities -- 13 CASE EIGHT: DETERRENCE FAILS-A MAJOR USE OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION -- Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction -- Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction -- Egyptian Weapons of Mass Destruction -- Libyan, Iranian, and Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction -- The War Fighting Implications of Weapons of Mass Destruction -- The Evolving War Fighting and Arms Control Implications of Weapons of Mass Destruction -- The Arms Control Implications of Weapons of Mass Destruction -- 14 ANALYTIC AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- Self-Stabilizing Deterrence -- Implications for Arms Control -- 15 SOURCES AND METHODS -- Sources -- Methods -- Notes -- Bibliography -- About the Book and Author

Nobody understands the delicate and dangerous balance of power in the Middle East better than Anthony Cordesman. In Perilous Prospects, he supplies the first account of the military and security concerns arising out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the recent assassination of Prime Minister Rabin.Cordesman considers a number of possible futures for the region, and their effects on the peace process, ranging the outbreak of a new intifada, to war between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights. He also provides an analysis of the internal security requirements of both Israel and a new Palestinian state, which are the key to any lasting settlement.Offering hard-headed analysis combined with hope for the future, Perilous Prospects is both timely and provocative.

Nobody understands the delicate and dangerous balance of power in the Middle East better than Anthony Cordesman. In Perilous Prospects, he supplies the first account of the military and security concerns arising out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the recent assassination of Prime Minister Rabin. Cordesman considers a number of possible futures for the region and their effects on the peace process, ranging from the outbreak of a new intifada to war between Israel and Syria over the Golan Heights. He also provides an analysis of the internal security requirements of both Israel and a new Palestinian state, which are the key to any lasting settlement. An account of the security concerns arising out of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the fallout of the Gulf War, and the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin. The book focuses on the role of armed forces, diplomacy, and arms-control options needed to keep the peace process on track.