Peace, Security and Defence Cooperation in Post-Brexit Europe : Risks and Opportunities

Highlighting the challenges and prospects of European security cooperation, this volume examines the impact of Brexit on strategic aspects of security, peace, defence and foreign policy for both the European Union and the UK. It applies theoretical and methodological approaches from international relations and security studies to analyse the causal mechanisms of security cooperation, and covers topics including innovative security technologies, defence procurement, EU-NATO relations, new capabilities frameworks (such as PESCO, EDF and EII), the role of French-German military cooperation, and the implications of Brexit for European deterrence or the Northern Ireland peace process. The findings contribute to a better understanding and management of anticipated challenges and sources of instability in post-Brexit Europe. Foreword 5 Acknowledgements 7 Contents 8 List of Contributors 10 Part I: Turning the Tables: The Collaborative Potential of Future EU-UK Relations in Peace, Security and Defence 11 Chapter 1: UK-EU Military Cooperation and Brexit from a Neoclassical Realist Perspective: No Big Deal? 12 1 Introduction 12 2 Neoclassical Realism: The Analytical Framework 14 3 Realism and EU Security and Defence 15 4 The UK and the CSDP: Systemic and Domestic Pressures 17 5 UK-EU Military Cooperation Post-Brexit: Deal, No Deal, Big Deal? 22 6 Conclusion 28 References 30 Chapter 2: Channel Trouble? Challenges to UK-EU Security Collaboration After Brexit 37 1 Introduction 37 2 Whither the Easy Scenario? 39 3 The Intergovernmental Nature of the EU Security and Defence Policy 42 4 Continued Membership of NATO 44 5 Depoliticised Nature of Security and Defence 46 6 Waning British Interest in the CSDP 49 7 Underlying Commonality of Interests 51 8 Conclusions: Towards the Future Relationship 53 References 54 Part II: Beyond Brexit: Rethinking the Future of Europe 58 Chapter 3: The French-German Military Cooperation and the Revival of European Defence After Brexit: Between Reality and Politi... 59 1 Introduction 59 2 The Return of the `French-German Engine ́ in European Defence: A New Bilateral Hegemon for CSDP? 61 2.1 Old Wine in New Bottles? The Historical Role of the French-German Engine in European Defence 62 2.2 Brexit as an Opportunity for Bilateral Activism in European Defence 63 2.2.1 A Multiplication of Bilateral Initiatives in the Area of Military Capacities 64 2.2.2 A Specific Focus on the Budgetary Questions in European Defence Policy 68 3 France and Germany: An Ambivalent Engine for CSDP Faced with Strategic Divergences 69 3.1 Different Visions of What European Strategic Autonomy Means in Paris and Berlin 70 3.1.1 A Slightly Different Conception of Strategic Autonomy 71 3.1.2 Different Strategic Representations of European Defence Policy 72 3.2 Divergence About the Use of Force and Political Constraints 74 3.2.1 A Different Vision of the Role of Military Force in Conflict Management 74 3.2.2 A Political and Operational Uncertainty in Germany 76 4 The Effects of Brexit on European Defence and Its French-German Engine 77 4.1 The `No Deal ́ Scenario and Its Consequences for EU Defence Cooperation 77 4.2 The Future of European Security and Defence Post-Brexit in Case of `A Deal ́ Between the UK and the EU 79 References 81 Chapter 4: The Effects of Brexit on the Good Friday Agreement and the Northern Ireland Peace Process 84 1 Introduction 84 2 The Context of the Good Friday Agreement 85 3 The Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement Pre-Brexit 88 4 The Brexit Debate in Northern Ireland 89 5 Brexit and Changing Political Dynamics 91 6 Brexit and the Peace Process 94 7 The Withdrawal Agreement and the Future 95 8 Conclusion 97 References 98 Chapter 5: Alliance Persistence, Military Security and the 2016 Brexit Referendum: The Case of Estonia and the United Kingdom 101 1 Introduction 101 2 Theoretical Framework. Assessing Military Alliance Strength 104 3 British-Estonian Military Alignment 2014-2018 108 4 Common Threats 109 5 Mutual Reliability 110 6 Mutual Utility 113 7 Results and Implications 114 References 117 Part III: New Sources of Legitimation and Power in European Peace and Security 121 Chapter 6: The EU ́s Technological Power: Harnessing Future and Emerging Technologies for European Security 122 1 Introduction 122 2 Conceptualising the European Military-Industrial Complex 126 3 Key Future Technologies for Defence 130 4 Conclusion 139 References 140 Chapter 7: Collaborative Naval Procurement and Grand Strategy Post-Brexit 144 1 Introduction 144 2 Patterns of British Participation in European Collaborative Naval Armament Projects 146 3 Patterns of Naval Collaboration and Grand Strategy 149 3.1 EU and UK Grand Strategy Post-Brexit 151 3.2 Return of the National Interest? 153 4 Collaborative Armament Project Patterns, European Defence Industrial Integration and Brexit 155 4.1 PESCO, EDF, Intergovernmental Armament Collaboration and Brexit 156 4.2 Brexit and European Defence Industry Consolidation 159 5 Conclusion 162 References 163 Chapter 8: European Nuclear Deterrence and Security Cooperation: Post-Brexit Relations and Challenges 166 1 Introduction 166 2 The Historical Overview of Nuclear Weapons Policies in the European Context 167 3 Nuclear Deterrence 171 3.1 Categories of Nuclear Weapons in Europe 172 3.2 The United States and the Atlantic Partnership 173 3.3 NATO ́s Extended Deterrence and Its Decision-Making Process 175 4 Nuclear Cooperation 179 4.1 NATO-EU Relations Framework 179 4.2 UK-French Nuclear Cooperation 182 5 Challenges to Nuclear Cooperation? The Security Effects of Brexit 184 5.1 The Case of a `Deal ́ 185 5.2 The Case of `No Deal ́ 186 6 Conclusion 188 References 189 Part IV: Post-Brexit Strategy: Towards New Paradigms of European Resilience, Stability and Security 194 Chapter 9: Conceptualising European Security Post-Brexit: Turbulence, Complexity and Interdependence 195 1 Introduction 195 2 Multiple Sources of Uncertainty 197 3 A Multilevel World Order 200 4 EU and NATO as Complex Adaptive Systems 206 5 The Role of Prediction 208 6 Theorising Security Cooperation Post-Brexit: The Micro-Macro Nexus in Security Governance 211 7 Conclusion 215 References 218 Chapter 10: Conclusion: The Future of Europe-Towards a New Paradigm of European Security and Resilience 220 1 Turning the Tables: The Collaborative Potential of Future EU-UK Security and Defence Relations 220 2 Beyond Brexit: Rethinking the Future of Europe 225 3 New Sources of Legitimation and Power in European Security and Foreign Policy 231 4 Post-Brexit Strategy: Towards New Paradigms of European Resilience, Stability and Security 237 References 242 Front Matter ....Pages i-xi Front Matter ....Pages 1-1 UK-EU Military Cooperation and Brexit from a Neoclassical Realist Perspective: No Big Deal? (Lee David Turpin)....Pages 3-27 Channel Trouble? Challenges to UK-EU Security Collaboration After Brexit (Monika Sus, Benjamin Martill)....Pages 29-49 Front Matter ....Pages 51-51 The French-German Military Cooperation and the Revival of European Defence After Brexit: Between Reality and Political Myth (Delphine Deschaux-Dutard)....Pages 53-77 The Effects of Brexit on the Good Friday Agreement and the Northern Ireland Peace Process (John Doyle, Eileen Connolly)....Pages 79-95 Alliance Persistence, Military Security and the 2016 Brexit Referendum: The Case of Estonia and the United Kingdom (Jonas J. Driedger)....Pages 97-116 Front Matter ....Pages 117-117 The EU’s Technological Power: Harnessing Future and Emerging Technologies for European Security (Raluca Csernatoni)....Pages 119-140 Collaborative Naval Procurement and Grand Strategy Post-Brexit (Michael Friederich Kluth)....Pages 141-162 European Nuclear Deterrence and Security Cooperation: Post-Brexit Relations and Challenges (Adérito Vicente)....Pages 163-190 Front Matter ....Pages 191-191 Conceptualising European Security Post-Brexit: Turbulence, Complexity and Interdependence (Effie Charalampaki)....Pages 193-217 Conclusion: The Future of Europe—Towards a New Paradigm of European Security and Resilience (Cornelia-Adriana Baciu, John Doyle)....Pages 219-244