[Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics] How Referendums Challenge European Democracy (Brexit and Beyond) ||

This book explains how citizens are using referendums to challenge decisions taken by the European Union. The opening chapters compare the two chief institutions of electoral democracy: parliamentary elections to decide who governs, and referendums to decide policies. The EU relies on international treaties for its authority to make policies. Chapters analysing referendum voting on Europe in Britain, Greece and the Netherlands show that cultural values can have a stronger influence than class. The book uses Brexit – the British referendum in which a majority voted for the UK leaving the European Union – as the leading example of a conflict between national voters and the EU. However, taking back control of policymaking does not ensure effective policymaking when success depends not only on what the British Parliament does but also on decisions taken in Brussels, Washington and elsewhere. Boris Johnson’s electoral success is insufficient to deliver all his promises in the world beyond Brexit. The EU is challenged too, as its policies increasingly depend on what happens on other continents. Preface: Spectres Haunting Europe About This Book Contents List of Contributors List of Figures List of Tables 1 How Democratic Elections Differ 1.1 Direct and Representative Democracy Compared 1.2 Are Referendums a Good Thing? Politicians Mix Principles and Pragmatism Political Scientists Divide: Indifferent, Against and For 1.3 Citizens Favour Referendums References 2 How Referendums Differ from Each Other 2.1 Why Referendums Are Held 2.2 Repeating a Referendum 2.3 Conditions for Holding a Referendum Vary Selection of Issues Importance of an Issue A Vote on a Principle or an Act of Parliament An Unbiased Question A Dichotomous or a Multiple Choice Setting a Turnout Threshold Legally Binding or Advisory Uncertainty of Outcome References 3 Europe’s Democratic Deficit and Democratic Surplus 3.1 The EU’s Structural Deficit Adding Weight to Democracy Lite? 3.2 A Surplus of Elections Dozens of National Elections National Referendums on EU Issues 3.3 Coping with Conflicting Legitimacies The EU Strategy: Conflict Avoidance Containing Eurosceptics Prime Ministers Face the Goldoni Problem References 4 A Paradigm Shift in National Referendums on Europe 4.1 Types of EU-Related Referendums 4.2 Rise of the Policy Referendum 4.3 Referendums on Disintegration References 5 When Institutions and Issues Change, Voting Changes 5.1 Same Voters, Different Institutions and Issues 5.2 Theories of Individual Voting Behaviour Class Left- and Right-Wing Ideologies National Culture Cosmopolitan Culture Partisanship and Anti-partisanship 5.3 Institutions and Issues Matter Class and Ideology Good Fit But Different Combinations of Influence 5.4 Voters Are Discriminating Appendix References 6 How Politicians Ought to Talk About Europe: Lessons Learned from Experimental Evidence 6.1 Stop Believing in the Existence of a Rhetorical Silver Bullet 6.2 Know How Much Room for Manoeuvre You Have 6.3 Issue-Linking European Integration to Popular Goals 6.4 Use Valid Issue Links 6.5 Don’t Expect Too Much of Your Party Label References 7 Comparing Voting in National Referendums on EU Issues 7.1 Context and Framing of the Referendums Britain The Netherlands Greece 7.2 Hypotheses and Data 7.3 Comparative Results References 8 Britain: Still Searching for a Role in the World 8.1 Looking Back Churchill Macmillan to Heath Thatcher to Blair 8.2 Looking in All Directions 8.3 What Role for a Post-Brexit Britain? Switzerland with Nukes Pivot Away from Europe An EU–UK Special Relationship A Global European Balancer Adrift and Lost at Sea References 9 Forecasting the Economic Consequences of Brexit 9.1 Treasury Forecasts of the Short-Term Impact of Brexit 9.2 Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts 9.3 Long-Term Forecasting of the Economic Impact of Brexit 9.4 Did the Brexit Vote Influence the Economy? 9.5 Conclusions References 10 Policy-Making in a Bounded Democracy 10.1 A Vote for Change Voters See the World as Risky A Campaign of Fear and Hope A Politically Binding Result 10.2 No Agreement About Brexit in Practice Conflicting Views About What Brexit Ought to Mean 10.3 A Domestic Foreign Policy Outcome Not in British Hands May Decides Any Deal Is Better Than No Deal References 11 The Failure of Parliamentary Government 11.1 Parliament Asserts Its Authority Negatively Negative Numbers 11.2 Opinion Polls No Substitute for Elections What Opinion Polls Have Shown The Lack of an Institutional Link 11.3 Electing MEPs: The Referendum Re-run References 12 A New Prime Minister Meets Old Constraints 12.1 Winning Downing Street Taking Over the Conservative Party No Majority to Govern The Bounds of Brussels 12.2 Winning a Referendum Against Parliament Johnson Plays to His Strengths A Majority for Getting Brexit Done 12.3 Getting Brexit Done–Up to a Point Leaving the EU Does Not Get Brexit Done References 13 Beyond Brexit in a World of Interdependence 13.1 A Global Britain Is Still a Bounded Democracy Conflicting Readings of an Unwritten Constitution What Role in the World for a Post-Brexit Britain? 13.2 The EU Is Bounded by Interdependence Too Multi-national Treaties Place Bounds on the Legitimacy of National Elections Globalisation Places Bounds on the Exercise of EU Powers References 'On both sides of the Channel, apparently secure democratic institutions are in trouble. Political legitimacy has been eroded by the unresolved conflicts between popular and representative democracy, and between often-complacent elites and increasingly sceptical electorates. The Brexit drama has not caused these problems, but it has reflected and severely deepened them, especially in Britain. Richard Roses compelling, unsparing examination lays these problems bare. His analysis should be heeded by students and practitioners of politics alike. -Peter Kellner, Political Journalist and Co-founder of YouGov, UK 'Direct democracy has come to play an increasingly important role in the dynamic of European integration, including the dramatic departure of a member state, the UK. This volume is a must-read on referendums and the structural limits of EU democracy. -Brigid Laffan, Director, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute, Italy 'Richard Rose and his colleagues bring together the study of democratic elections, the institutions of the EU and the politics of Brexit. The analysis is consistently insightful and the references remarkably topical. To understand how political legitimacy is fragile in bounded democracies, this is an invaluable book. -Albert Weale, Emeritus Professor of Political Theory and Public Policy, UCL, UK This book explains how citizens are using referendums to challenge decisions taken by the European Union. The opening chapters compare the two chief institutions of electoral democracy: parliamentary elections to decide who governs, and referendums to decide policies. Chapters analysing referendum voting on Europe in Britain, Greece and the Netherlands show that cultural values can have a stronger influence than class. The book uses Brexit as the leading example of a conflict between national voters and the EU. However, taking back control of policymaking does not ensure effective policymaking wh en success depends not only on what the British Parliament does but also on decisions taken in Brussels, Washington and elsewhere. The EU is challenged too, as its policies increasingly depend on what happens on other continents. Richard Rose has received many European awards for his books on comparative elections, public policy and British and European Union politics. He is Founder-Director of the Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, UK The European Union's founders learned about politics in the late nineteenth century, long before democracy became the touchstone for legitimacy. They relied on the traditional authority of the state to negotiate agreements with other countries. Robert Schuman, Konrad Adenauer and Alcide de Gaspari saw themselves as trustees of the common interests of Europeans. European institutions were launched for the people, not by the people. Reliance on traditional authority meant that elites saw no need for extensive public debate or a referendum to justify national governments signing the treaties that created European institutions.