On the Edge : The Art of Risking Everything

NAMED A MOST-ANTICIPATED BOOK OF 2024 BY FT, The Guardian, and The Sunday Times From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise , the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise , Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates “the River,” the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range... “Engaging and entertaining... a glimpse of the economy of the future.” —Tim Wu, New York Times Book ReviewFrom the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates “the River,” the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. Most of us don't have traits commonly found in the River: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers—paired with an instinctive distrust of conventional wisdom and a competitive drive so intense it can border on irrational. For those in the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it. People in the River have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—and the flaws in their thinking— is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power bro­kers and risk-takers. NAMED A MOST-ANTICIPATED BOOK OF 2024 BY FT, The Guardian, and The Sunday TimesFrom the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of riskand the players raising the stakes In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shapeand dominateso much of modern life.These professional risk takerspoker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectorscan teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21stcentury. By embedding within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindsetincluding the flaws in their thinkingis key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers. The Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida, features one nightclub, seven pools, fourteen restaurants, a thirty-foot high indoor waterfall, dozen of pieces of bedazzled rock-and-roll memorabilia, two hundred gaming tables, 1,275 guest rooms, three thousand slot machines, and a glimmering guitar-shaped hotel that shoots beams of neon blue light twenty thousand feet into the sky. Motivation Introduction Gambling Optimization Perception Consumption Competition Halftime Inspiration: Thirteen Habits of Highly Successful Risk-Takers Risk Acceleration Illusion Quantification Miscalculation Termination Foundation Acknowledgments, Methods and Sources Glossary: How to Speak Riverian Notes Index How some people — including poker players, hedge fund managers and venture capitalists — analyze and navigate risk, and why it’s important.