On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting And The Bullwhip Effect In Supply Chains (foundations And Trends(r) In Technology, Information And Ope)

On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains focuses on supply chain co-ordination. The bullwhip effect is used as the key example of supply chain inefficiency. The authors focus both on the managerial relevance of the bullwhip effect and the methodological issues making it essential reading for both managers and researchers. 1601981325......Page 1 Contents......Page 10 Modern Supply Chains......Page 12 Empirical Evidence of Bullwhip......Page 14 Causes of the Bullwhip Effect......Page 19 The Link Between the Bullwhip Effect and Supply Chain Costs......Page 21 Methodological Approaches to Studyingthe Bullwhip Problem......Page 28 Continuous Time Methods......Page 29 Discrete Time Methods......Page 31 Other Approaches......Page 33 A Smoothing Replenishment Rule for a Stationary i.i.d.......Page 36 Analysis of the Smoothing Rule Under Stationary Demand......Page 40 A Smoothing Replenishment Rule Under ARMA(1,1) Demand......Page 46 The Generalized Out Policy Under ARMA Demand......Page 49 Minimum Mean Squared Error Forecasting......Page 55 Transferring the Inventory Decisions to the Upstream Levels......Page 58 Coordination of Replenishment Rules in a Multi-Echelon Setting......Page 62 The Retailer's Order and Inventory Variance......Page 63 The Manufacturer's Order and Inventory Variance......Page 64 The Sequential Optimization Scenario: The Self-Serving Focus......Page 66 The Global Optimization Problem: Supply Chain Coordination......Page 69 Linking the Variance Ratios to Costs in the Supply Chain......Page 73 Practical Considerations......Page 77 Summary......Page 79 The Square Root Law for Bullwhip......Page 82 Multi-Product Scenarios......Page 83 Multi-Echelon Supply Chain Scenarios......Page 84 Concluding Remarks......Page 86 References......Page 88 Abstract Modern supply chains The bullwhip effect: the dynamics of supply chains Empirical evidence of bullwhip Causes of the bullwhip effect The link between the bullwhip effect and supply chain costs Methodological approaches to studying the bullwhip problem Continuous time methods Discrete time methods Other approaches Replenishment rules, forecasting, and the demand process A smoothing replenishment rule for a stationary i.i.d. demand process Analysis of the smoothing rule under stationary demand A smoothing replenishment rule under ARMA (1,1) demand with exponential smoothing The generalized out policy under ARMA demand with exponential smoothing forecasts Minimum mean squared error forecasting Transferring the inventory decisions to the upstream levels: vendor managed inventory as a variance reduction tool Coordination of replenishment rules in a multi-echelon setting The retailer's order and inventory variance The manufacturer's order and inventory variance The sequential optimization scenario: the self-serving focus The global optimization problem: supply chain coordination Linking the variance ratios to costs in the supply chain Practical considerations Summary New directions in bullwhip research The square root law for bullwhip Multi-product scenarios Stochastic lead-times Multi-echelon supply chain scenarios Concluding remarks References Updates. In this review we focus on supply coordination and use the bullwhip effect as the key example of supply chain inefficiency. We emphasize the managerial relevance of the bullwhip effect and the methodological issues so that both managers and researchers can benefit.