Oil Mortality in Post-Fossil Fuel Era Nigeria : Beyond the Oil Age

This book provides an insight into the complexities of weaning Nigeria from its fossil fuels addiction while growing the economy on low carbon trajectory. Nigeria faces a carbon catch 22 with the proliferation of renewable energy alternatives and scale-up of electric vehicles. The dilemma Nigeria is confronted with is to grow its fossil-led economy or face the challenge of its fossil infrastructure becoming stranded assets. It is a roadmap for plotting an environmentally benign path out of the country’s economic, social and environmental crises. This book is, therefore, a valuable resource for students, Civil Society Organizations, policymakers, academics and climate change adaptation practitioners who are interested in finding an environmentally sensitive path out of Nigeria’s economic cul-de-sac fostered by the decarbonization of the global energy economy. Findings of this study will trigger a national conversation on the looming exit from fossil fuels. In doing so, accelerate the integration of renewable energy into the Nigerian national development plan while building a carbon neutral society. Lessons learnt from the handling of Nigeria’s precarious circumstance will be of immense benefit to other oil prospecting, oil producing and non-producing nations who are interested in finding an equitable way of pursuing two inversely related goals of meeting their decarbonization commitments while simultaneously growing their economies in the post-Paris era. Preface 6 Acknowledgements 10 Observations 11 Key Takeaways for Government 12 Contents 13 List of Figures 16 List of Tables 17 List of Maps 18 1 Dawn of a New Age 19 The Gathering Storm 19 Analytic Hub of the Study 23 Cross-Cutting Challenge of Modern Age 28 Technological Shift: A Snapshot 31 Oil: Black Gold or Devil’s Excrement? 35 Electric Vehicles Versus Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles Debate 39 Oil: A Disaster Waiting to Happen? 41 An Apocalyptic Vision of Oil Age 43 2 COVID-19 and Nigeria 51 Origin of Coronavirus 51 Economic Implications for Nigeria 52 Effect of Coronavirus on the Global Economy 53 Implications of Fossil-Fuel Exit Strategy and COVID-19 for Nigeria 55 Where Did We Go Wrong? 58 Common Solution for Climate Change and COVID-19 60 3 Political Economy of Fossil Fuel Exit 64 A Time to Change the Game 64 Economics of Natural Resources Production 70 Emergence of Green Growth in Nigeria 77 Energy, the Environment and Global Warming 79 Nigeria’s Carbon Catch-22 85 Impact of Oil on Nigerian Economy 88 Cost of Oil in Nigeria 96 State of the Environment in Oil Producing States 98 4 Fossil Fuel Exit: Which Way Nigeria? 106 Changing Landscape of Climate Policy in Nigeria 106 Oil Sector Regulatory Regime 110 Petroleum Industry Bill: Peril or Prosperity? 112 Implications of the PIGB for Nigeria’s Future Without Oil 112 Nigeria’s Energy Status 115 Low Carbon Transition: Myth or Reality? 120 Building a Post-Fossil Fuel Future 123 Resource Curse: Myth or Reality? 124 Detractors to Building Nigeria’s Low Carbon Future 128 The Search for an Alternative 134 5 Making the Post-vision 20:2020 and NDC Blueprints Efficient as Phase-Out Strategies 142 Preparing for the Post-fossil Fuel Era 142 The Outcome of ERGP 144 NDC and Nigeria’s Decarbonisation 146 Criticisms of the Paris Commitment 149 Challenges of NDC Implementation 151 NDC and Post-COVID-19 Recovery 152 6 Roadmap to Nigeria’s Future Without Oil 157 Diversification as Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy 157 Transcending Policy Implementation Gap on Economic Diversification 160 Refocusing Policy Towards Looming Economic Doldrums 165 Making the Future Without Oil Energy Efficient 172 Towards an Inclusive Green Growth Society 178 Bamboo: Tool for Building a Post-Fossil Society? 181 Limitations of Bamboos to Strengthening the Low Carbon Growth 184 Imperative for a National Policy on Bamboo Cultivation 186 Bamboos for Sustainable Development 188 7 Gender Relations and Forest Resource Management in Post-COVID-19 Age 191 Changing Role of Gender in the Post-COVID-19 Age 191 Constraints to Gender Sensitive Forest Resources Management 195 Gender and Forest Resources Management in the Coronavirus Age 197 The Post-COVID-19 FRM We Want 199 8 Green Economic Recovery in Post-COVID-19 Era 202 Economic Stimulus for Post-COVID Era 202 Green Economic Recovery Tools in Post-COVID-19 Era 204 Economic Stimulus Package in COVID-19 Era 206 Clean Energy Transition 207 Constraints to Clean Energy Future in Nigeria 208 Maximizing Clean Energy Transition in the Green Economic Recovery Plan 212 Pathways to Clean Energy Future in Post-COVID-19 Era 213 Nigeria: Now What Next? 215 9 Aligning the New NDC with NESP 219 Overview of the Extent NESP Aligns with NDC 219 Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan: An Overview 220 Objectives of the NESP 222 Gaps in the Nigeria Economic Sustainability Plan 223 Impediments to Synchronizing the NDC to NESP 229 Analysis of Aligning the NDC and NESP 232 Bridging the NDC and NESP Fissure 236 The Way Forward 237 10 Beyond Oil Age 240 The Way Ahead 240 The New Normal 243 The Post-Carbon/COVID-19 Future We Want 244 Appendices 252 Appendix 1 252 Appendix 2 254 Appendix 3: Priorities of Agriculture Promotion Policy 262 References 264 Front Matter ....Pages i-xxv Dawn of a New Age (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 1-32 COVID-19 and Nigeria (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 33-45 Political Economy of Fossil Fuel Exit (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 47-88 Fossil Fuel Exit: Which Way Nigeria? (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 89-124 Making the Post-vision 20:2020 and NDC Blueprints Efficient as Phase-Out Strategies (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 125-139 Roadmap to Nigeria’s Future Without Oil (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 141-174 Gender Relations and Forest Resource Management in Post-COVID-19 Age (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 175-185 Green Economic Recovery in Post-COVID-19 Era (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 187-203 Aligning the New NDC with NESP (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 205-225 Beyond Oil Age (Augustine Sadiq Okoh)....Pages 227-238 Back Matter ....Pages 239-254