Oil and the Political Economy in the Middle East : Post-2014 Adjustment Policies of the Arab Gulf and Beyond

This book contains the first comprehensive analysis of the Middle Eastern political economy in response to the oil price decline in 2014. The introductory and concluding chapters also touch upon the oil price crash in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss some of the relevant responses by Middle Eastern actors. Its findings connect oil market dynamics with an understanding of sociopolitical changes. Inspired by rentierism, the volume presents original studies on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Results show a large diversity of country-specific policy adjustments. Among the most pertinent findings are that migrant workers in the Arab Gulf are the main social losers in the post-2014 period, while citizens were capable of repelling burdensome adjustment policies. For Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, the expectation that they could benefit from the oil price decline in 2014 has not been fulfilled. Three conceptual dimensions for the theoretical advancement of rentierism are highlighted: first, in the light of increasing exploitation and coercion, by bringing state–class relations back into the discussion; second, by paying closer attention to the role of institutions during periods of policy adjustment; third, by exploring the issue of rentier-state autonomy vis-à-vis society in a more nuanced way. Overall, this collection signifies that rentierism still prevails with regard to both empirical dynamics in the Middle East and academic discussions on its political economy. The downhill slide in the global price of crude oil, which started mid-2014, had major repercussions across the Middle East for net oil exporters, as well as importers closely connected to the oil-producing countries from the Gulf. Following the Arab uprisings of 2010 and 2011, the oil price decline represented a second major shock for the region in the early twenty-first century – one that has continued to impose constraints, but also provided opportunities. Offering the first comprehensive analysis of the Middle Eastern political economy in response to the 2014 oil price decline, this book connects oil market dynamics with an understanding of socio-political changes.Inspired by rentierism, the contributors present original studies on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The studies reveal a large diversity of country-specific policy adjustment strategies: from the migrant workers in the Arab Gulf, who lost out in the post-2014 period but were incapable of repelling burdensome adjustment policies, to Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, who have never been able to fulfil the expectation that they could benefit from the 2014 oil price decline.With timely contributions on the COVID-19-induced oil price crash in 2020, this collection signifies that rentierism still prevails with regard to both empirical dynamics in the Middle East and academic discussions on its political economy. Front matter 1 Dedication 7 Contents 9 Figures 11 Tables 13 Contributors 15 Preface 18 Acknowledgements 19 Note on transliteration 20 Abbreviations 21 Pressured by the decreased price of oil: Post-2014 adjustment policies in the Arab Gulf and beyond 23 Upgrading towards neoclassical rentier governance: Bahrain’s post-2014 oil price decline adjustment 58 Stalled reform: The resilience of rentierism in Kuwait 80 Oil price collapse and the political economy of the post-2014 economic adjustment in the Sultanate of Oman 101 Qatar: Leadership transition, regional crisis, and the imperatives for reform 124 The nexus between state-led economic reform programmes, security, and reputation damage in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 146 Federal benefits: How federalism encourages economic diversification in the United Arab Emirates 167 Egypt’s twisted hydrocarbon dependency: A case of persistent semi-rentierism 186 Oil and turmoil: Jordan’s adjustment challenges amid local and regional change 214 Lower oil prices since 2014: Good news or bad news for the Lebanese economy? 235 Oil and the political economy in the Middle East: Overcoming rentierism? 259 Index 291 This is the first comprehensive analysis of the Middle East political economy in response to the oil price decline in 2014. Based on a heuristic framework inspired by rentierism, the volume contains original studies on Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. -- .