OFFICIAL STATISTICS - A PLAYTHING OF POLITICS? : on the interaction of politics, official... statistics, and ethical principles

This book describes official statistics as a tool to hold up a mirror to society – but also as an instrument for those who can manipulate this mirror. It addresses the precarious interaction of politics, official statistics, and ethical principles. Three sets of themes can be derived from this relationship, which are the focus of this book: Political systems and guiding principles, official statistics as a science of the state, and ethical issues arising from them. Ultimately, the determining factor is the political system that exists in each case. The book contains eleven chapters. The first three focus on the key concepts of the book: power and morality, official statistics and policy making, and ethical principles for statistical work. Three further chapters focus on episodes that illustrate, as "drastic" examples, the misuse of official statistics over the past hundred years, covering the situation in the Soviet Union, the Third Reich and Greece. The remaining five chapters take up current topics that pose particular challenges to official statistics. These are the phenomena paraphrased by digitalisation, globalisation, happiness research, overpopulation, migration, the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change. The book is primarily aimed at statisticians working in national and international statistical institutions, but also at readers interested in statistics, national accounts, economic and statistics history, and ethical issues. Preface Acknowledgements Contents Abbreviations List of Figures List of Tables 1 Introduction 1.1 Political Systems and Models 1.2 Statistics and Government Action 1.3 Official Statistics and Ethics 1.4 Today’s Challenges 2 Power and Morality 2.1 Of the Good and Bad in Politics The Palazzo Pubblico in Siena The Allegory of Good Government The Allegory of Bad Government The Fresco Cycle as a Key Work The Fresco Cycle From Today’s Perspective Beccafumi’s Frescoes The Idea of Reason of State 2.2 Human Dignity and Human Rights Human Dignity Human Excellence and Human Misery The Dignity of the Human Being as a Person Human Rights The Role of Natural Law Liberty, Equality, Fraternity 3 On the History of Statistics and Policy-Making 3.1 Descriptive Statistics and State Studies Censuses and Tax Estimates Official Surveys University Statistics 3.2 Political Arithmetic John Graunt, William Petty, and Gregory King Johann Peter Süßmilch Lambert Adolphe Jacob Quetelet 3.3 Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics 3.4 National Accounts From the Beginnings in the 1930s to the Post-war Period Germany from 1925 Until After the War On the Economic Development in the German Democratic Republic Official Statistics in the German Democratic Republic The Architecture of an Integrated System Reconciliation of Statistical Data 4 Ethical Norms for Statistical Work 4.1 On the Concept of Ethics 4.2 Business Ethics Schools of Thought The Moral Philosophy of Adam Smith The Normative Individualist Approach of Karl Homann The Ethical Values Underlying the Social Market Economy 4.3 Ethical Principles in Official Statistics The United Nations Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics The European Statistics Code of Practice Ten Basic Principles of Official Statistics in Germany 4.4 Professional Ethics of a Statistician 4.5 Quality Measurement of Statistical Data Quality Management in Companies Quality Concepts in Statistics Approaches to Quality Management in Official Statistics Quality Standards of Official Statistics in Germany 4.6 Statistics, the Public, and Politics 5 Censuses in the Soviet Union and Afterwards 5.1 The Abortive 1920 Census and the Attempts Thereafter 5.2 Josef Stalin, the 1937 Census and the Consequences Inaccurate Projection of the Population Propaganda and Preparatory Work Preliminary Results The Consequences The Possibility of a Dignified Commemoration for the Victims of Bolshevism 5.3 The 2010 Census in Russia 5.4 Kazakhstan’s 2009 Census Accusations Against the ARKS Leadership A Kleptocratic Regime 6 Population Statistics and the Final Solution Under National Socialism 6.1 Perpetrators, Victims, and Bystanders 6.2 Official Statistics in the Weimar Republic and the Third Reich Jews of Faith and the 1933 Census The 1939 Census Friedrich Burgdörfer Roderich Plate The 1939 Census Results 6.3 On the Question of Statistical Confidentiality 6.4 The Wannsee Conference 6.5 Statistics on the Implementation of the Final Solution Richard Korherr and His Reports The Fate of Cora Berliner The Number of Jews Murdered 6.6 Government Policy Duties and Ethical Standards 7 Greece’s Reckoning with an Honourable Statistician 7.1 Greece’s Public Finances Before Joining the European Economic and Monetary Union Government Finance Statistics of Greece The EU Commission on Fiscal Statistics in Greece in 2004 Fake Data at the Beginning The EU Commission on Fiscal Statistics in Greece in 2010 7.2 Esye and Elstat The Search for a New Head of Elstat Andreas V. Georgiou and the Board of Directors of Elstat 7.3 Elstat, Eurostat, and the IMF Conspiracy Against the State The Most Absurd Accusations The IMF’s February 2017 Country Report on Greece Eurostat’s Criticism of Greece’s Government Finance Statistics 7.4 Andreas V. Georgiou as a Person Legally Convicted in Greece Reparation? Reactions Award and Acquittal A Never-Ending Story 7.5 The Irony of Fate 7.6 The Far-Reaching Survival of an Old System 8 Digitalisation and a Pandemic Digitalisation 8.1 Digitalisation and Its History 8.2 Measuring Digitalisation Capture of Digital Goods, Services, and Processes Current Data on Digitalisation Framework for Measurement of Digital Economy 8.3 Big Data Data Science I Am Measured, Therefore I Am Between Politics and Business 8.4 Improving the Digitalisation Performance 8.5 The Corona Pandemic—Its Outbreak, Response, and Impact The Outbreak of the Corona Virus Vaccines Against the Corona Virus Unvaccinated in the Pandemic The Corona Virus and Its Impact on the Economy 8.6 Strategies Combating a Further Spread Flatten the Curve Real-Time Flu Tracking Corona Virus and Digital Control On the Self-determination of the Human Being 8.7 Corona and Citizens’ Distrust The Corona Pandemic as a Threefold Crisis Bureaucracy is Omnipotent in Germany Misinformation and Disinformation 8.8 On Measuring the Pandemic Infections and Hospitalisations Measuring Excess Mortality Mortality Data and Reported Data 8.9 Reliable Statistical Reporting on Corona Pocking Around in the Data Fog A System of Central Corona Registers 9 Globalisation and Official Statistics 9.1 Multinational Enterprise Groups 9.2 Value Chains and Smile Curves 9.3 Statistical Standards in Times of Globalisation 9.4 An Integrated Approach of the SNA The Concept of Residency Beneficial Owner and Beneficial Ownership Intellectual Property 9.5 Improving the Existing Statistical System The Reconciliation of Primary Statistics The Principles of Border Crossing and of Transfer of Ownership Closing Data Gaps A Detailed Sector Breakdown 9.6 On the Development of New Statistical Concepts The SNA Approach and the Corporate Group Approach Large Cases Units, the EuroGroups Register, and Other Initiatives On the Transfer Pricing of Multinational Enterprises 9.7 Special Purpose Entities and Supranational Aggregates 9.8 Globalisation in Retreat? 10 Ireland’s Miraculous Economic Growth 10.1 Just a Stroke of the Pen? 10.2 Methods of Tax Avoidance as Causes for the Revision 10.3 The Importance of Globalisation The Irish Economy Today—Knowledge-Based, Open, and Multinational The Long Leap of the Celtic Tiger—The Development Since the 1990s The Crisis Years 2008 and 2009 10.4 On Ireland’s Economic Situation in Recent Years Relocation of the Headquarters of Large Corporations to Ireland Shifting Profits of Multinational Groups to Ireland via Transfer Pricing Transfer of Intellectual Property Good for Processing Abroad Ireland’s Information and Communication Technology The Activities of the Pharmaceutical Industry in Ireland The Activities of Aircraft Leasing Companies 10.5 On the Assessment of Globalisation Trends The GNI* Metric Alternatives to GNI* Sector Accounts for Ireland 10.6 Statistical Requirements 11 Happiness and Happiness Researchers 11.1 About the Happy Life 11.2 Happiness Research and Happiness Economics 11.3 Beyond GDP The Human Development Index Other Measures of Economic Welfare The Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Commission Report The Report of the Enquete Commission in Germany 11.4 The OECD Better Life Index 11.5 Eurostat’s Set of Indicators on Quality of Life 11.6 New Measures of Welfare Under Test—But Which Ones? 11.7 Searching for a Consistent and Comprehensive Indicator System 12 National Egoism or International Cooperation 12.1 Political Challenges 12.2 Official Statistics and Political Culture 12.3 Goodhart’s Law Argentina’s Problem with Price Statistics The World Bank’s Reputation has Been Called into Question India’s Grossly Overestimated Economic Growth China’s High Growth as an Evergreen 12.4 Undermining the Independence of Official Statistics The Canadian System of Macroeconomic Accounts Two Chief Statisticians Resigned Tanzania’s Move to Amend the Statistics Act 12.5 Statistics, National Egoism, and International Cooperation Increased International Cooperation in Statistics 13 Worldview Statistics 13.1 Visualisation of Statistical Data 13.2 The Rich and the Poor Unequal Distribution of National Income Distribution of Income and Wealth 13.3 Population Development and Migration Demographic Trends Germany’s Natural Population Movement and Net Migration Development of the Age Structure of the Population Worldwide Germany as a Country of Immigration Migration Losers and Winners Migration Worldwide Refugees and Asylum Seekers 13.4 Climate and Environment Weather and Climate Global Warming by Region Germany and Climate Change 13.5 Environmental Economic Accounts Objectives and Structure Economic Models on Climate Change and Climate Targets An Emissions Trading System 13.6 Sustainability United Nations Sustainable Development Goals On the Acceptance of Sustainability Goals 14 Conclusions Bibliography