OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2: VOLUME 2010 ISSUE 2 (N.88 NOVEMBRE 2010) (AGRICULTURE ET ALIMENTATION, ENVIRONNEME)

The __OECD Economic Outlook__ analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2012 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the __Outlook__ provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments. In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled "Fiscal consolidation: Requirements, timing, instruments and institutional arrangements. It addresses the following questions: How much budget consolidation is required in individual OECD countries to stabilise the ratio of government debt to GDP and what are the requirements to bring gross debt ratios to 60% of GDP? What factors should determine the appropriate speed of consolidation? What instruments should be employed for consolidation and what kind of public spending should be cut and what kind of taxes should be raised? What fiscal rules and institutions are most likely to foster consolidation? Table of Contents Summary of projections Editorial: Rebalancing Policy Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation Overview Table 1.1. The global recovery will remain moderate Forces acting on the OECD economies Figure 1.1. World trade growth remains solid Figure 1.2. Financial conditions indices have improved markedly Figure 1.3. Price-earnings ratios remain below long-run averages Figure 1.4. Bank lending may be bottoming Figure 1.5. Business investment has started to pick up Figure 1.6. The profitability of non-financial corporations has improved Box 1.1. Household balance sheets and the saving rate Figure 1.7. Car sales are generally below trend levels Figure 1.8. Housing markets continue to recover Box 1.2. Housing market developments Table 1.2. Real house prices remain fragile in some countries Figure 1.9. Unemployment rates remain high Table 1.3. Labour market conditions will improve slowly Growth prospects Figure 1.10. Global growth continues be led by the non-OECD economies Box 1.3. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections Table 1.4. World trade remains robust and imbalances will widen gradually Figure 1.11. Underlying inflation is set to remain subdued Figure 1.12. Global imbalances will remain pronounced Box 1.4. Risks associated with current low bond yields Figure 1.13. Banks in some euro area countries have become dependent on central bank facilities Table 1.5. The activity effects of exchange rate depreciations Policy responses and requirements Table 1.6. Fiscal positions will improve in coming years Figure 1.14. Accumulated debt and evolution of underlying deficits Figure 1.15. Sovereign bond spreads in the euro area remain elevated Box 1.5. Fiscal rules and arrangements in the euro area Figure 1.16. Gross debt ratios under announced government consolidation plans Box 1.6. Estimating the macroeconomic impact of Basel III capital requirements Table 1.7. The largest banks hold less capital to generate a higher return on equity Table 1.8. Growth-enhancing structural reforms can also help to reduce fiscal and external imbalances Bibliography Chapter 2. Development in Individual OECD Countries United States Japan Euro area Germany France Italy United Kingdom Canada Australia Austria Belgium Chile Czech Republic Denmark Finland Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Chapter 3. Developments in Selected Non-member Economies Brazil China India Russian Federation Estonia Indonesia South Africa Chapter 4. Fiscal Consolidation: Requirements, Timing, Instruments and Institutional Arrangements Introduction Fiscal consolidation requirements in a stylised long-term scenario Box 4.1. The consequences of previous banking crises for public debt Box 4.2. Assumptions underlying the baseline scenario Table 4.1. Potential output in the baseline scenario Table 4.2. A macroeconomic summary of the baseline scenario Fiscal consolidation requirements Table 4.3. Fiscal trends in the baseline assuming a stylised fiscal rule Box 4.3. Uncertainty around output gap estimates and fiscal consolidation Box 4.4. Fiscal policy assumptions used in the stylised scenario Table 4.4. Consolidation requirements to stabilise debt over the long-term Box 4.5. Evidence on the effects of fiscal imbalances on interest rates and economic growth Table 4.5. Projected changes in ageing-related public spending for selected OECD countries Figure 4.1. Total consolidation required from 2010 to achieve alternative debt targets The timing of consolidation Table 4.6. Short-term fiscal multipliers Table 4.7. The effect of fiscal consolidation on GDP Figure 4.2. The effect of more rapid consolidation on growth Figure 4.3. The effect of more rapid consolidation on government debt Instruments of consolidation Box 4.6. What factors drive consolidation? Experience in the OECD Table 4.8. Consolidation instruments and objectives Table 4.9. Fiscal effects of consolidation instruments Figure 4.4. General government wage consumption Table 4.10. Value of open tenders and government spending in selected countries Figure 4.5. General government subsidies Figure 4.6. VAT revenue ratio in 2007 Figure 4.7. Income support in OECD countries in 2007 Figure 4.8. Disability benefit recipient rates Figure 4.9. General government tax receipts Figure 4.10. Property and indirect taxes in the OECD area Figure 4.11. Effect of 1% higher potential employment on the primary balance Institutional settings that foster fiscal consolidation Table 4.11. Fiscal rules applied in OECD countries Bibliography Special chapters in recent issues of OECD Economic Outlook Statistical Annex Country classification Irrevocable euro conversion rates National accounts reporting systems, base years and latest data updates Annex Tables Annex Table 1. Real GDP Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP Annex Table 10. Output gaps Annex Table 11. Compensation per employee in the private sector Annex Table 12. Labour productivity in the total economy Annex Table 13. Unemployment rates: commonly used definitions Annex Table 14. Harmonised unemployment rates Annex Table 15. Labour force, employment and unemployment Annex Table 16. GDP deflators Annex Table 17. Private consumption deflators Annex Table 18. Consumer price indices Annex Table 19. Oil and other primary commodity markets Annex Table 20. Employment rates, participation rates and labour force Annex Table 21. Potential GDP, employment and capital stock Annex Table 22. Structural unemployment and unit labor costs Annex Table 23. Household saving rates Annex Table 24. Gross national saving Annex Table 25. General government total outlays Annex Table 26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts Annex Table 27. General government financial balances Annex Table 28. General government cyclically-adjusted balances Annex Table 29. General government underlying balances Annex Table 30. General government underlying primary balances Annex Table 31. General government net debt interest payments Annex Table 32. General government gross financial liabilities Annex Table 33. General government net financial liabilities Annex Table 34. Short-term interest rates Annex Table 35. Long-term interest rates Annex Table 36. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar) Annex Table 37. Effective exchange rates Annex Table 38. Export volumes of goods and services Annex Table 39. Import volumes of goods and services Annex Table 40. Export prices of goods and services Annex Table 41. Import prices of goods and services Annex Table 42. Competitive positions: relative consumer prices Annex Table 43. Competitive positions: relative unit labour costs Annex Table 44. Export performance for total goods and services Annex Table 45. Shares in world exports and imports Annex Table 46. Geographical structure of world trade growth Annex Table 47. Trade balances for goods and services Annex Table 48. Investment income, net Annex Table 49. Total transfers, net Annex Table 50. Current account balances Annex Table 51. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP Annex Table 52. Structure of current account balances of major world regions Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services Annex Table 54. Import penetration Annex Table 55. Quarterly demand and output projections Annex Table 56. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections Annex Table 57. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries Annex Table 58. Household wealth and indebtedness Annex Table 59. House prices Annex Table 60. House price ratios Annex Table 61. Central government financial balances Annex Table 62. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt Annex Table 63. Monetary and credit aggregates: recent trends Annex Table 64. Macroeconomic indicators for selected non-member economies