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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was released on April 17, 2007 by Random House. The book focuses on the extreme impact of certain kinds of rare and unpredictable events (outliers) and humans tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events retrospectively. This theory has since become known as the black swan theory. The book also covers subjects relating to knowledge, aesthetics, and ways of life, and uses elements of fiction in making its points. The first edition appeared in 2007 and was a commercial success. It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times best-seller list. Probability Cover 1 Copyright page 10 Contents 13 Prologue 21 On the Plumage of Birds 21 What You Do Not Know 23 Experts and "Empty Suits" 24 Learning to Learn 25 A New Kind of Ingratitude 26 Life Is Very Unusual 28 Plato and the Nerd 29 Too Dull to Write About 30 The Bottom Line 31 Chapters Map 32 Part One: Umberto Eco's Antilibrary, Or How We Seek Validation 33 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic 35 Anatomy of a Black Swan 35 On Walking Walks 38 "Paradise" Evaporated 39 The Starred Night 39 History and the Triplet of Opacity 40 Nobody Knows What's Going On 41 History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps 42 Dear Diary: On History Running Backward 44 Education in a Taxicab 46 Clusters 47 Where Is the Show? 49 8 3/4 Lbs Later 50 The Four-Letter Word of Independence 52 Limousine Philosopher 53 2 Yevgenia's Black Swan 55 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute 58 The Best (Worst) Advice 58 Beware the Scalable 60 The Advent of Scalability 61 Scalability and Globalization 63 Travels Inside Mediocristan 64 The Strange Country of Extremistan 65 Extremistan and Knowledge 66 Wild and Mild 67 The Tyranny of the Accident 67 4 One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker 70 How to Learn from the Turkey 72 Trained to Be Dull 75 A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge 76 A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem 77 Sextus the (Alas) Empirical 78 Algazel 79 The Skeptic, Friend of Religion 80 I Don't Want to Be a Turkey 81 They Want to Live in Mediocristan 81 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation! 83 Zoogles Are Not All Boogies 85 Evidence 87 Negative Empiricism 88 Counting to Three 90 Saw Another Red Mini! 91 Not Everything 92 Back to Mediocristan 93 6 The Narrative Fallacy 94 On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes 94 Splitting Brains 96 A Little More Dopamine 99 Andrey Nikolayevich's Rule 100 A Better Way to Die 102 Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past 102 The Madman's Narrative 103 Narrative and Therapy 105 To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision 106 Dispassionate Science 107 The Sensational and the Black Swan 108 Black Swan Blindness 109 The Pull of the Sensational 111 The Shortcuts 113 Beware the Brain 114 How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy 115 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope 117 Peer Cruelty 118 Where the Relevant Is the Sensational 119 Nonlinearities 120 Process over Results 121 Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards 123 The Antechamber of Hope 124 Inebriated by Hope 124 The Sweet Trap of Anticipation 125 When You Need the Bastiani Fortress 126 El desierto de los târtaros 126 Bleed or Blowup 128 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence 132 The Story of the Drowned Worshippers 132 The Cemetery of Letters 134 How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps 137 A Health Club for Rats 139 Vicious Bias 140 More Hidden Applications 140 The Evolution of the Swimmer's Body 141 What You See and What You Don't See 142 Doctors 144 The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova 144 "I Am a Risk Taker" 147 I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias 149 The Cosmetic Because 151 9 The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd 154 Fat Tony 154 Non-Brooklyn John 155 Lunch at Lake Como 157 The Uncertainty of the Nerd 159 Gambling with the Wrong Dice 161 Wrapping Up Part One 163 The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface 163 Distance from Primates 164 Part Two: We Just Can't Predict 167 From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré 168 10 The Scandal of Prediction 169 On the Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count 170 Black Swan Blindness Redux 173 Guessing and Predicting 174 Information Is Bad for Knowledge 174 The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit 177 What Moves and What Does Not Move 177 How to Have the Last Laugh 180 Events Are Outlandish 181 Herding Like Cattle 182 I Was "Almost" Right 183 Reality? What For? 186 "Other Than That," It Was Okay 188 The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets 190 The Character of Prediction Errors 191 Don't Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep 192 Get Another Job 195 At JFK 195 11 How to Look for Bird Poop 197 How to Look for Bird Poop 197 Inadvertent Discoveries 198 A Solution Waiting for a Problem 201 Keep Searching 202 How to Predict Your Predictions! 203 The Nth Billiard Ball 206 Third Republic-Style Decorum 206 The Three Body Problem 208 They Still Ignore Hayek 211 How Not to Be a Nerd 213 Academic Libertarianism 215 Prediction and Free Will 215 The Grueness of Emerald 217 That Great Anticipation Machine 221 12 Epistemocracy, a Dream 222 Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat 223 Epistemocracy 224 The Past's Past, and the Past's Future 225 Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness 226 Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies 227 The Melting Ice Cube 228 Once Again, Incomplete Information 229 What They Call Knowledge 230 13 Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? 233 Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap 233 Being a Fool in the Right Places 235 Be Prepared 235 The Idea of Positive Accident 235 Volatility and Risk of Black Swan 236 Barbell Strategy 237 "Nobody Knows Anything" 238 The Great Asymmetry 242 Part Three: Those Gray Swans Of Extremistan 245 14 From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back 247 The World Is Unfair 247 The Matthew Effect 248 Lingua Franca 250 Ideas and Contagions 252 Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan 252 A Brooklyn Frenchman 253 The Long Tail 255 Naïve Globalization 257 Reversals Away from Extremistan 259 15 The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud 261 The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian 261 The Increase in the Decrease 263 The Mandelbrotian 264 What to Remember 266 Inequality 266 Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule 267 Grass and Trees 268 How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe 269 Love of Certainties 271 How to Cause Catastrophes 272 Quételet's Average Monster 272 Golden Mediocrity 273 God's Error 274 Poincaré to the Rescue 275 Eliminating Unfair Influence 275 "The Greeks Would Have Deified It" 276 "Yes/No" Only Please 276 A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From 277 Those Comforting Assumptions 282 "The Ubiquity of the Gaussian" 283 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness 285 The Poet of Randomness 285 The Platonicity of Triangles 288 The Geometry of Nature 288 Fractality 289 A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan 291 Pearls to Swine 292 The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning) 294 The Problem of the Upper Bound 298 Beware the Precision 298 The Water Puddle Revisited 299 From Representation to Reality 300 Once Again, Beware the Forecasters 302 Once Again, a Happy Solution 302 Where Is the Gray Swan? 304 17 Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places 306 Only Fifty Years 307 The Clerks' Betrayal 307 Anyone Can Become President 309 More Horror 310 Confirmation 313 It Was Just a Black Swan 313 How to "Prove" Things 314 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony 318 Ludic Fallacy Redux 318 Find the Phony 319 Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society? 320 The Problem of Practice 321 How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin? 321 Where Is Popper When You Need Him? 322 The Bishop and the Analyst 323 Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism 324 Part Four: The End 325 19 Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 327 When Missing a Train Is Painless 329 The End 329 Epilogue: Yevgenia's White Swans 331 Acknowledgments 333 Glossary 339 Notes 343 Prologue 343 1 The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic 343 3 The Speculator and the Prostitute 344 4 One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker 344 5 Confirmation Shmonfirmation! 346 6 The Narrative Fallacy 346 7 Living in the Antechamber of Hope 346 8 Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck: The Problem of Silent Evidence 349 9 The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd 351 10 The Scandal of Prediction 352 11 How to Look for Bird Poop 353 12 Epistemocracy, a Dream 353 13 Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot Predict? 353 14 From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back 356 15 The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud 356 16 The Aesthetics of Randomness 356 17 Locke's Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places 356 Fractals, Power Laws, and Scale-free Distributions 358 18 The Uncertainty of the Phony 360 19 Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 361 Bibliography 363 A 363 B 364 C 367 D 369 E 371 F 371 G 372 H 374 I 375 J 375 K 376 L 377 M 378 N 380 O 381 P 381 Q 383 R 383 S 384 T 387 U 388 V 388 W 389 Y 390 Z 390 Index 391 About the Author 399 About the Type 401 probability;,uncertainty;,mathematics;,science;,critical,thinking probability,uncertainty,mathematics,science,critical thinking The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Examines The Role Of The Unexpected, Discussing Why Improbable Events Are Not Anticipated Or Understood Properly, And How Humans Rationalize The Black Swan Phenomenon To Make It Appear Less Random. Prologue -- Umberto Eco's Antilibrary, Or How We Seek Validation. The Apprenticeship Of An Empirical Skeptic ; Yevgenia's Black Swan ; The Speculator And The Prostitute ; One Thousand And One Days, Or How Not To Be A Sucker ; Confirmation Shmonfirmation! ; The Narrative Fallacy ; Living In The Antechamber Of Hope ; Giacomo Casanova's Unfailing Luck : The Problem Of Silent Evidence ; The Ludic Fallacy, Or The Uncertainty Of The Nerd -- We Just Can't Predict. The Scandal Of Prediction ; How To Look For Bird Poop ; Epistemocracy, A Dream ; Appelles The Painter, Or What Do You Do If You Cannot Predict? -- Those Gray Swans Of Extremistan. From Mediocristan To Extremistan And Back ; The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud ; The Aesthetics Of Randomness ; Locke's Madmen, Or Bell Curves In The Wrong Places ; The Uncertainty Of The Phony -- The End. Half And Half, Or How To Get Even With The Black Swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's White Swans -- Postscript Essay: On Robustness An Fragility, Deeper Philosophical And Empirical Reflections. Learning From Mother Nature, The Oldest And The Wisest ; Why I Do All This Walking, Or How Systems Become Fragile ; Margaritas Ante Porcos ; Asperger And The Ontological Black Swan ; (perhaps) The Most Useful Problem In The History Of Modern Philosophy ; Fourth Quadrant, The Solution To That Most Useful Of Problems ; What To Do With The Fourth Quadrant ; Ten Principles For A Black-swan-robust Society ; Amor Fati: How To Become Indestructible. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Originally Published In Hardcover And In Slightly Different Form In The United States ... By Random House In 2007--title Page Verso. Includes Bibliographical References (pages 401-429) And Index. A Black Swan Is A Highly Improbable Event With Three Principal Characteristics: It Is Unpredictable; It Carries A Massive Impact; And, After The Fact, We Concoct An Explanation That Makes It Appear Less Random, And More Predictable, Than It Was. The Astonishing Success Of Google Was A Black Swan; So Was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Black Swans Underlie Almost Everything About Our World, From The Rise Of Religions To Events In Our Own Personal Lives. Why Do We Not Acknowledge The Phenomenon Of Black Swans Until After They Occur? Part Of The Answer, According To Taleb, Is That Humans Are Hardwired To Learn Specifics When They Should Be Focused On Generalities. We Concentrate On Things We Already Know And Time And Time Again Fail To Take Into Consideration What We Don't Know. We Are, Therefore, Unable To Truly Estimate Opportunities, Too Vulnerable To The Impulse To Simplify, Narrate, And Categorize, And Not Open Enough To Rewarding Those Who Can Imagine The 'impossible.' For Years, Taleb Has Studied How We Fool Ourselves Into Thinking We Know More Than We Actually Do. We Restrict Our Thinking To The Irrelevant And Inconsequential, While Large Events Continue To Surprise Us And Shape Our World. Now, In This Revelatory Book, Taleb Explains Everything We Know About What We Don't Know. He Offers Surprisingly Simple Tricks For Dealing With Black Swans And Benefiting From Them.--jacket. Part One - Umberto Eco's Antilibrary, Or How We Seek Validation -- Part Two - We Just Can't Predict -- Part Three - Thos Gray Swans Of Extremistan -- Part Four - The End. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Includes Bibliographical References (p. [331]-358) And Index. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For the author black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world ABOUT THIS BOOK A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.