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"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world. This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the world of business--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. — From the Trade Paperback edition. Preface (vii)......Page 9 Contents (xxv)......Page 25 Prologue (xxxix)......Page 38 Part I. Solon's Warning: Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction (1)......Page 46 1. If You're So Rich, Why Aren't You So Smart? (5)......Page 49 2. A Bizarre Accounting Method (22)......Page 66 3. A Mathematical Meditation on History (43)......Page 87 4. Randomness, Nonsense, and the Scientific Intellectual (70)......Page 114 5. Survival of the Least Fit—Can Evolution Be Fooled by Randomness? (79)......Page 123 6. Skewness and Asymmetry (97)......Page 141 7. The Problem of Induction (116)......Page 160 Part II. Monkeys on Typewriters: Survivorship and Other Biases (133)......Page 176 8. Too Many Millionaires Next Door (139)......Page 181 9. It Is Easier to Buy and Sell than Fry an Egg (149)......Page 191 10. Loser Takes All—On the Nonlinearities of Life (172)......Page 214 11. Randomness and Our Mind: We Are Probability Blind (182)......Page 224 Part III. Wax in My Ears: Living with Randomitis (219)......Page 261 12. Gamblers' Ticks and Pigeons in a Box (226)......Page 267 13. Carneades Comes to Rome: On Probability and Skepticism (234)......Page 275 14. Bacchus Abandons Antony (245)......Page 286 Epilogue. Solon Told You So (250)......Page 291 Postscript. Three Afterthoughts in the Shower (253)......Page 293 Acknowledgments for the First Edition (263)......Page 303 A Trip to the Library: Notes and Reading Recommendations (278)......Page 306 Preface (269)......Page 307 Prologue (271)......Page 309 Chapter 1 (272)......Page 310 Chapter 2 (273)......Page 311 Chapter 3 (274)......Page 312 Chapter 4 (276)......Page 314 Chapter 5 (277)......Page 315 Chapter 6 (278)......Page 316 Chapter 7 (279)......Page 317 Chapter 8 (280)......Page 318 Chapter 10 (281)......Page 319 Chapter 11 (283)......Page 321 Chapter 13 (288)......Page 326 Chapter 14 (290)......Page 328 References (293)......Page 330 Index (307)......Page 344 About the Author (317)......Page 354 About the Type (318)......Page 355 Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Talebs landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we dont understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes . Contends that randomness and probability have a large impact on life, claims that people regularly fail to recognize that role, and tells how to differentiate between randomness in general and the financial markets in particular. This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck