Next Civilization : Digital Democracy and Socio-Ecological Finance - How to Avoid Dystopia and Upgrade Society by Digital Means

"Digital transformation" sounds harmless, given that the explosion in data volumes, processing power and Artificial Intelligence has driven humanity and the entire world to a point of no return. We will surely see a new civilization, but we are at a crossroads. The future needs to be re-invented, decisions must be taken. After the automation of factories and the creation of self-driving cars, the automation of society is on its way. But there are two kinds of automation: a centralized top-down control of the world and a distributed control approach, supporting local self-organization. Using the power of today’s information systems, governments and big tech companies seem to engage in the first approach. Might they even build a „digital Crystal Ball“ that knows almost everything, including your personality, and a super-intelligent "digital God“ to control what we do? We are much closer to such „science fiction scenarios“ than you probably think. In this much expanded second edition of "The Automation of Society is Next: How to Survive the Digital Revolution" (2015), the author discusses lessons learned on digital democracy, aspects of transhumanism and far-reaching thoughts about life in the digital age and what it may mean to be human in the future. Acknowledgements......Page 6 Prologue......Page 7 Contents......Page 14 1.1 Living in the Age of “Big Data”......Page 22 1.2 Data Sets Bigger Than the Largest Library......Page 23 1.3 Will a Digital Revolution Solve Our Problems?......Page 24 1.4 Big Data Gold Rush for the Twenty-First Century’s Oil......Page 25 1.5 Will Artificial Intelligence Overtake Us?......Page 26 1.6 When Big Data Starts to Steer Our Lives......Page 27 1.8 Wise Kings and Benevolent Dictators, Fueled by Big Data......Page 28 1.9 Do We Need to Sacrifice Our Personal Freedom?......Page 29 1.11 Two Scenarios: Coercion or Freedom......Page 31 1.12 A Better Future Ahead of Us......Page 33 1.13 On the Way to a Smarter Digital Society......Page 35 References......Page 36 2 Complexity Time Bomb......Page 37 2.1 Phantom Traffic Jams......Page 38 2.3 Systemic Instability......Page 39 2.4 Beware of Strongly Coupled Systems!......Page 40 2.5 Cascading Effects in Complex Networks......Page 42 2.7 From Bankruptcy Cascades to Financial Crisis......Page 43 2.8 A World Economic Crisis Results......Page 44 2.9 Fundamental (“Radical”) Uncertainty......Page 47 2.11 Systemic Interdependence......Page 48 2.12 Have Humans Created a “Complexity Time Bomb”?......Page 49 2.13 Unintended Wars and Revolutions......Page 50 2.15 Conclusion......Page 51 2.17 Appendix 2: Loss of Synchronization in Hierarchical Systems......Page 52 References......Page 53 3 Social Forces......Page 55 3.1 Measuring the World 2.0......Page 56 3.3 Flu Prediction Better Than Google......Page 58 3.4 Creating a Planetary Nervous System as a Citizen Web......Page 60 3.5 Sociophysics: Revealing the Hidden Forces Governing Our Society......Page 61 3.6 Social Forces Between Pedestrians......Page 62 3.7 Self-Organization of Unidirectional Lanes in Pedestrian Counter-Flows......Page 63 3.8 Walking Through a “Wall” of People Without Stopping......Page 64 3.10 Most Pedestrian Facilities Are Inefficient......Page 65 3.11 Crowd Disasters......Page 67 3.12 Countering Crowd Disasters......Page 69 3.13 Forces Describing Opinion Formation and Other Behaviors......Page 70 3.15 Reducing Conflict......Page 72 3.16 What We Can Learn from Jerusalem......Page 73 3.18 Why “Social Capital” Is so Terribly Important......Page 74 3.19 Trust and Power......Page 75 3.20 Appendix 1: Nervousnet: A Decentralized Digital Nervous System......Page 77 References......Page 79 4 Google as God?......Page 82 4.1 Technology to Empower a “Wise King”?......Page 83 4.2 A Digital “Crystal Ball”?......Page 84 4.3 The Digital “Magic Wand”: A Remote Control for Humans?......Page 85 4.4 A New World Order Based on Information?......Page 86 4.5 Nudging: When the State Takes Care of Our Decisions......Page 87 4.6 Google as God?......Page 90 4.7 Errors or First and Second Kind: Doing Good Isn’t Easy......Page 91 4.8 Limitations of the “Crystal Ball”......Page 93 4.9 Limitations of the “Magic Wand”......Page 94 4.10 Complexity Is the Greatest Challenge......Page 95 4.11 Appendix 1: Democracy and Freedom—Outdated Concepts?......Page 97 4.12.2 Parameter Sensitivity......Page 99 4.12.3 Instability, Turbulence and Chaos: When All the Data in the World Can’t Help......Page 100 4.12.6 Herding......Page 101 4.13 Appendix 3: Will New Technologies Make the World Predictable?......Page 102 References......Page 103 5.1 The China Model......Page 104 5.2 Can Corporate Control Fix the World?......Page 106 5.3 The Digital Revolution on Its Way......Page 107 5.4 Computers More Intelligent Than Humans?......Page 108 5.5 When Will We See Artificial Superintelligences and Superhumans?......Page 109 5.6 Everything Will Change......Page 112 5.7 The Third Economic Revolution......Page 113 5.8 The New Logic of Prosperity and Leadership......Page 114 5.9 Creating a Resilient Society......Page 115 5.11.1 Crime......Page 118 5.11.3 Economic Risks......Page 119 5.11.4 Social and Societal Risks......Page 120 5.12 Appendix 2: Why Privacy Is Still Needed......Page 121 References......Page 122 6.1 Big Data......Page 124 6.2 Surveillance Capitalism......Page 125 6.3 Digital Crystal Ball......Page 127 6.5 World Simulation (and “Benevolent Dictator”)......Page 128 6.6 Attention Economy......Page 129 6.7 Conformity and Distraction......Page 130 6.8 Censorship and Propaganda......Page 131 6.9 Targeting and Behavioral Manipulation......Page 132 6.10 Citizen Score and Behavioral Control......Page 134 6.11 Digital Policing......Page 135 6.12 Cashless Society......Page 136 6.13 Reading and Controlling Minds......Page 137 6.14 Neurocapitalism......Page 138 6.15 Human Machine Convergence......Page 140 6.16 Algorithm-Based Dying and Killing......Page 141 6.17 Technological Totalitarianism and Digital Fascism......Page 143 6.18 Singularity and Digital God......Page 144 6.19 Apocalyptic AI......Page 145 References......Page 148 7 Digitally Assisted Self-Organization......Page 149 7.1 Self-Organization “like Magic”......Page 150 7.2 The Physics of Traffic......Page 152 7.3 A Capacity Drop, When Traffic Flows Best!......Page 153 7.5 Assisting Traffic Flow......Page 154 7.6 Creating Favorable Collective Effects......Page 155 7.7 Cars with Collective Intelligence......Page 156 7.8 Self-Organizing Traffic Lights......Page 157 7.9 How to Outsmart Centralized Control......Page 158 7.10 A Pilot Study......Page 161 7.11 Lessons Learned......Page 162 7.12 Industry 4.0: Towards Smart, Self-Organizing Production......Page 163 7.13 Making the “Invisible Hand” Work......Page 165 7.14 Information Technologies to Assist Social Systems......Page 166 7.15 Appendix 1: Faster-Is-Slower Effect......Page 167 7.16 Appendix 2: The Challenge of Fairness......Page 168 References......Page 169 8 How Society Works......Page 171 8.2 When Everyone Wants More, but Loses......Page 172 8.4 Scared by Future “Revenge”......Page 173 8.6 The Birth of Moral Behavior......Page 174 8.7 Containing Crime......Page 176 8.9 The Surprising Role of Success-Driven Migration......Page 177 8.10 Common Pool Resource Management......Page 179 8.11 Why and How Globalization Undermines Cooperation and Social Order......Page 180 8.13 Costly, Trustworthy Signals......Page 181 8.14 Building on Reputation......Page 182 8.15 A Healthy Information Ecosystem by Pluralistic Social Filtering......Page 183 8.16 Merit-Based Matching: Who Pays More Earns More......Page 184 8.17 Social Technologies......Page 185 8.18 Digital Assistants......Page 186 8.19 Appendix 1: Creating a Trend for the Better......Page 187 8.20 Appendix 2: Towards Distributed Security, Based on Self-Organization......Page 188 8.20.1 Community-Based Moderation......Page 189 References......Page 190 9 Networked Minds......Page 192 9.2 Sex, Drugs and Rock ‘n Roll......Page 194 9.4 Lessons Learned......Page 195 9.5 Suddenly, “Irrational Behavior” Makes Sense......Page 196 9.7 Being Social Is Rewarding, Too......Page 197 9.8 The Evolution of “Networked Minds”......Page 198 9.9 Making Mistakes Is Important!......Page 201 9.10 “Networked Minds” Require a “New Economic Thinking”......Page 203 9.12 Diversity Wins, not the Best......Page 204 9.13 Future Decision-Making Institutions......Page 205 9.14 How to Produce Collective Intelligence......Page 206 9.15 What We Can Learn from IBM’s Watson Computer......Page 207 9.16 Collective Intelligence Versus Superintelligence......Page 208 9.17 There Is More to Come: New Rewards, Virtual Worlds......Page 209 9.18.1 Ultimatum and Dictator Games......Page 210 9.19 Appendix 2: A Smarter Way of Interacting, not Socialism......Page 211 References......Page 212 10 The Economy 4.0......Page 214 10.2 Personalized Education......Page 215 10.3 Science and Health, Fueled by Big Data......Page 216 10.4 Banking and Finance......Page 218 10.5 In the Wake of Big Data, the Pillars of Democracies Are Shaking......Page 219 10.6 Industry 4.0......Page 220 10.7 New Avenues in Production, Transportation, and Marketing......Page 221 10.8 Where Are We Heading? New Forms of Work......Page 224 10.10 Prosumers—Co-Producing Consumers......Page 225 10.11 Top-Down Versus Bottom-Up Organization......Page 226 10.12 Allowing Diverse Resources to Come Together Quickly......Page 229 10.13 Towards a More Resilient Society......Page 230 10.14 A New Kind of Economy Is Born......Page 231 10.15 Emergence of a Participatory Market Society......Page 233 10.16 Supporting Collective Intelligence......Page 234 10.17 Preparing for the Future......Page 235 10.18 Appendix 1: Re-Inventing Innovation......Page 236 10.18.1 Micropayments Would Be Better......Page 238 10.19.1 We Could All Be Doing Well......Page 239 References......Page 240 11 The Self-Organizing Society......Page 241 11.1 Cybernetic Society Versus Synergetic Society: Why Top-Down Control Will Fail......Page 243 11.2 Omnibenevolence Doesn’t Exist—It’s an Illusion, Despotism......Page 244 11.3 Time for a New Approach......Page 245 11.4 How to Make the “Invisible Hand” Work......Page 247 11.5 The Secrets of Self-Organization......Page 248 11.6 Cultures as Collections of Invisible Success Principles......Page 249 11.7 Locality as Success Principle of the Universe......Page 250 11.8 Cities as Agents of Change......Page 251 11.9 City Olympics to Improve the World......Page 252 11.11 How to Manage Our Future: Some Proposals for Immediate Action......Page 253 11.12 Let’s Get Started!......Page 260 11.13 Appendix 1: Where Might the Digital Revolution Take Us?......Page 261 11.14 Appendix 2: Future Governance: Options Rather Than Compromises......Page 263 References......Page 264 12.1 The “Benevolent Dictator” Is Dead......Page 265 12.2 The Concept of Digital Democracy......Page 269 12.3 Participatory Resilience......Page 273 12.4 Beyond Smart Cities......Page 275 12.5 “City Olympics”......Page 277 12.6 Open Everything, Making, and Citizen Science......Page 279 12.7 Open Source Urbanism......Page 281 References......Page 283 13.1 The Failing Financial System......Page 285 13.2 Democratic Capitalism......Page 288 13.3 A Better Tax System......Page 290 13.4 Universal Basic Income......Page 291 13.5 From Participatory Budgeting to Crowd Funding for All......Page 292 13.6 A New Monetary System......Page 293 13.7 Participatory Steering Boards......Page 295 13.8 Socio-Ecological Finance System......Page 297 References......Page 299 14.1 AI on the Rise......Page 300 14.1.1 AI as God?......Page 301 14.1.2 Singularity......Page 302 14.1.3 Transhumanism......Page 303 14.1.4 Is AI Really Intelligent?......Page 304 14.1.5 What Is Consciousness?......Page 306 14.2.2 Correlation Versus Causality......Page 307 14.2.3 Trustable AI......Page 308 14.2.5 Data Protection?......Page 309 14.2.6 Scoring, Citizen Scores, Superscores......Page 310 14.2.7 Automation Versus Freedom......Page 312 14.2.8 Learning to Die?......Page 314 14.2.9 A Revolution from Above?......Page 315 14.3.1 Human Rights......Page 316 14.3.2 Happiness Versus Capitalism......Page 317 14.3.3 Human Dignity......Page 318 14.3.4 Informational Self-determination......Page 319 14.3.6 Democracy by Design......Page 321 14.3.7 Fairness......Page 323 14.3.8 Network Effects for Prosperity, Peace and Sustainability......Page 324 14.4 Appendix 1: Success Principles for Our Future......Page 325 References......Page 327 Epilogue......Page 329 Further Reading......Page 332 About the Author......Page 335 Reference......Page 337