New World Order and Small Regions : The Case of South Caucasus

The book provides a comprehensive understanding of the unfolding geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus in the age of increased great power competition across Eurasia. Recent research on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus focuses either on interstate relations among Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia or on each of regional actor's (Russia, Turkey and Iran) ties with the region's one or all three states. Little attempt has been made to see the region's shifting geopolitical importance from a global perspective: growing US-China rivalry and shifting balance of power in Eurasia; recalibration of the US' military and diplomatic vision in western Eurasia to adjust to the Chinese challenge. The book argues, from a theoretical point of view, that the increased competition in the region fits into the global pattern of unfolding great power competition, when military and economic calculations drive regional powers to increase their influence on immediate neighborhoods sidelining the collective West from the negotiating table and the emerging new security architecture. Emil Avdaliani is Professor of International Relatios at European University, Tbilisi, Georgia and the head of Middle East Studies at Geocase. He is also columnist at CEPA, RUSI, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and Georgia Today Preface Contents 1 Introduction 2 Shifting Global Balance of Power and the South Caucasus The Nature of Liberal Crisis Emergence of Eurasia as a Rival Bloc—Shifting Balance of Power Chinese Vision Other Eurasian Powers The Future World Order—Different Pathways China’s Vision of Future World Order Final Thoughts References 3 Multipolar World and the Return of Great Power Competition to the South Caucasus References 4 Turkey’s Evolving Approach to the Black Sea and the South Caucasus Region Ukraine—Rupture Point for Turkey’s Black Sea Vision Turkey’s Ukraine Policy Turkey’s Growing Assertiveness in the South Caucasus Assertive Turkey and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Turkey’s Assertiveness and Eurasianism Final Thoughts References 5 Iran’s Changing Strategic Position in the South Caucasus Iran and Connectivity in the South Caucasus Iran and Changing Balance of Power Around Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Relations with Russia Final Thoughts References 6 From Central Asia to the Black Sea: China and the South Caucasus Important Geographic Bridge The South Caucasus Countries and the BRI Hopes for a New Regional Player Dashed China and Foreign Actors in South Caucasus From Central Asia to the Black Sea—A Caucas-Asian Perspective Final Thoughts References 7 Russia’s “Return” to the South Caucasus Geography Informs Russia’s Grand Strategy in the South Caucasus Russia and the South Caucasus—Eurasian Outlook and Order-Building Russia’s Order-Building in the South Caucasus Decline of Russia’s Prestige The Crisis of “Separatist Empire” The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh Final Thoughts References 8 Conclusion: The Future of the South Caucasus References Index