New estimates of fertility and population in the United States : a study of annual White births from 1855 to 1960 and of completeness of enumeration in the censuses from 1880-1960

Census decennial enumerations are utilized to achieve two useful estimates: (l) Annual series of estimates of births, birth rates, and fertility rates for the white population of the U.S. from 1855 to the present (the first set of data on an annual basis); (2) Adjusted single-year age distributions of native white population and estimated undercounts by five-year age groups for the white population for each census since 1880. Originally published in 1963. The **Princeton Legacy Library** uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905. Preface Contents Part I. Introduction and Outline of Methods 1. Introduction 2. General Statement of Methods Adjustments for age heaping Estimates of mortality Mortality adjustments for war time losses Under-enumeration at particular ages for each sex Estimates of the native white population by sex and single years of age, 1880-1950 Estimates of the total white population by age and sex 1880-1950 Allowance for under counting of females 15-29 Births estimated by backward projection compared with births calculated from registrations Estimated birth rates and fertility rates Adjusting 1900-1950 mortality rates for under-enumeration Part II. Principal Results: Annual White Births and Birth Rates; The Long-Term Trend in Fertility; Completeness of Enumeration 3. White Births and Birth Rates in the United States since 1855 Birth deficits in war time Peacetime fluctuations in the birth rate 1870-1915 Comparison of United States and Australian birth rates, 1860-1960 4. Long-Term Fertility Trends in the United States Compared to Those in Selected European Countries Trends in the birth rate of the United States and certain European countries A comparison of trends in total fertility 5. Estimates of Census Enumeration Errors Features of the undercounts Comparison with an earlier estimate of undercounts Implications of the undercounts Evaluation of the assumption that females 15-29 were almost completely enumerated The effect of adjusted survivorship rates on estimated undercounts Part III. Techniques of Analysis and Estimation 6. The Relation between Total Fertility and the Birth Rate Fertility measures defined Relations among fertility measures Trends in total fertility vs trends in the birth rate in the United States, 1800-1960 The proportion 15-44 in stable age distributions The effect of declining fertility on the age distribution 7. Adjusting for Age Heaping The use of age ratios The linear trend in age heaping Preliminary estimates of deviant size of cohort Adjusted trend lines and final estimates of deviant size of cohort Possible changes in age heaping as a result of old age assistance The use of age heaping estimates in estimating the actual size of cohorts Special adjustments for age heaping in recent censuses 8. Estimating Annual Births and Birth Rates Conversion to calendar-year estimates Adjusting for infant mortality Adjusting for the 1918 influenza epidemic Adjusting the males for war losses Estimating births from the 1890 census Combining the female estimates Combining the male estimates Final adjustment to the 1917-1934 estimates 9. Estimating Census Enumeration Errors Adjustment of the April I-March 31 birth series Estimating the expected census populations Estimating the population 0-4 in the 1940 census and the population 0-14 in the 1950 census Estimating the expected 1960 white population Adjusting mortality rates for under-enumeration Estimating the alternative set of census enumeration errors Terminating the alternative estimates Convergence of continued estimates Appendices A. Special Adjustments 1. Differences in census date and question on age a. Effect on age ratios and estimates of age heaping b. Effect on estimates of annual births c. Effect on estimates of under-enumeration 2. Differences and corrections of reported census age distributions for native whites a. Age unknown b. The 1890 census c. The 1920 census d. The 1930 census e. The 1940 census f. The 1950 census Β. Construction of Life Tables Construction of model life tables for the 19th century Construction and adjustment of decade life tables for the 20th century C. Detailed Tables Census decennial enumerations are utilized to achieve two useful estimates: (l) Annual series of estimates of births, birth rates, and fertility rates for the white population of the U.S. from 1855 to the present (the first set of data on an annual basis); (2) Adjusted single-year age distributions of native white population and estimated undercounts by five-year age groups for the white population for each census since 1880. Originally published in 1963. The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905