Natural Experiments of History

Some central questions in the natural and social sciences can't be answered by controlled laboratory experiments, often considered to be the hallmark of the scientific method. This impossibility holds for any science concerned with the past. In addition, many manipulative experiments, while possible, would be considered immoral or illegal. One has to devise other methods of observing, describing, and explaining the world. In the historical disciplines, a fruitful approach has been to use natural experiments or the comparative method. This book consists of eight comparative studies drawn from history, archeology, economics, economic history, geography, and political science. The studies cover a spectrum of approaches, ranging from a non-quantitative narrative style in the early chapters to quantitative statistical analyses in the later chapters. The studies range from a simple two-way comparison of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which share the island of Hispaniola, to comparisons of 81 Pacific islands and 233 areas of India. The societies discussed are contemporary ones, literate societies of recent centuries, and non-literate past societies. Geographically, they include the United States, Mexico, Brazil, western Europe, tropical Africa, India, Siberia, Australia, New Zealand, and other Pacific islands. In an Afterword, the editors discuss how to cope with methodological problems common to these and other natural experiments of history.

In eight case studies by leading scholars in history, archaeology, business, economics, geography, and political science, the authors showcase the "natural experiment" or "comparative method"—well-known in any science concerned with the past—on the discipline of human history. That means, according to the editors, "comparing, preferably quantitatively and aided by statistical analyses, different systems that are similar in many respects, but that differ with respect to the factors whose influence one wishes to study." The case studies in the book support two overall conclusions about the study of human history: First, historical comparisons have the potential for yielding insights that cannot be extracted from a single case study alone. Second, insofar as is possible, when one proposes a conclusion, one may be able to strengthen one's conclusion by gathering quantitative evidence (or at least ranking one's outcomes from big to small), and then by testing the conclusion's validity statistically.

Prologue: Natural Experiments Of History / Jared Diamond And James A. Robinson -- Controlled Comparison And Polynesian Cultural Evolution / Patrick V. Kirch -- Exploding Wests : Boom And Bust In Nineteenth-century Settler Societies / James Belich -- Politics, Banking, And Economic Development : Evidence From New World Economies / Stephen Haber -- Intra-island And Inter-island Comparisons / Jared Diamond -- Shackled To The Past : The Causes And Consequences Of Africa's Slave Trades / Nathan Nunn -- Colonial Land Tenure, Electoral Competition, And Public Goods In India / Abhijit Banerjee And Lakshmi Iyer -- From Ancien Regime To Capitalism : The Spread Of The French Revolution As A Natural Experiment / Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson, And James A. Robinson -- Afterword: Using Comparative Methods In Studies Of Human History / Jared Diamond And James A. Robinson. Edited By Jared Diamond, James A. Robinson. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Prologue / Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson -- Controlled comparison and Polynesian cultural evolution / Patrick V. Kirch -- Exploding Wests : boom and bust in nineteenth-century settler societies / James Belich -- Politics, banking, and economic development : evidence from New World economies / Stephen Haber -- Intra-island and inter-island comparisons / Jared Diamond -- Shackled to the past : the causes and consequences of Africa's slave trades / Nathan Nunn -- Colonial land tenure, electoral competition, and public goods in India / Abhijit Banerjee and Lakshmi Iyer -- From ancien régime to capitalism : the spread of the French Revolution as a natural experiment / Daron Acemoglu, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson -- Afterword: Using comparative methods in studies of human history / Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson. Some central questions in the natural and social sciences can't be answered by controlled laboratory experiments. This book looks at the use of natural experiments or the comparative method.