Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics)

This 2002 study examines the process by which the seemingly impossible in 1987 - the disintegration of the Soviet state - became the seemingly inevitable by 1991, providing an original interpretation not only of the Soviet collapse, but also of the phenomenon of nationalism more generally. Probing the role of nationalist action as both cause and effect, Beissinger utilizes data and case studies from across the USSR during its final years to elicit the shifting relationship between pre-existing structural conditions, institutional constraints, and event-generated influences in the nationalist explosions that brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union. As Beissinger demonstrates, the 'tidal' context of nationalism - i.e., the transnational influence of one nationalism upon another - is critical to an explanation of the success and failure of particular nationalisms, why some nationalisms turn violent, and how a crescendo of events can overwhelm states, periodically evoking large-scale structural change in the character of the state system. Half-title......Page 3 Series-title......Page 5 Dedication......Page 6 Title......Page 7 Copyright......Page 8 Contents......Page 9 Illustrations......Page 11 Tables......Page 13 Acknowledgments......Page 15 1 From the Impossible to the Inevitable......Page 19 Structural Facilitation, Institutional Constraint, and Contentious Event......Page 30 Order, Event, and Tides of Nationalism......Page 36 Plan of the Book and Summary of the Arguments......Page 52 Research Strategies and Evidence......Page 59 2 The Tide of Nationalism and the Mobilizational Cycle......Page 65 Historical Background......Page 67 From Institutions to the Streets......Page 75 Defining a Tide Within a Cycle......Page 87 The Diffusion and Normalization of Contention......Page 97 The Mobilizational Effect on Institutions......Page 110 Summary and Conclusion......Page 119 3 Structuring Nationalism......Page 121 Nationalism in Time......Page 122 Nationalism in Space......Page 125 Nationalism in Space-Time (I): The Temporal Spread of Nationalist Contention......Page 141 Nationalism in Space-Time (II): The Systematic Effects of Event-Specific Processes......Page 147 Summary and Conclusion......Page 163 4 “Thickened” History and the Mobilization of Identity......Page 165 The Mobilization of Identity as Political Process......Page 168 Secessionist Mobilization within the Glasnost’ Tide of Nationalism......Page 177 Baltic Nationalisms and the Politics of Emboldening and Persuasion......Page 184 Emulation, Emboldening, Repulsion: The Rise of Georgian Separatism......Page 196 The Gradual Emergence of a Secessionist Consciousness Among Armenians......Page 204 Riding a Mobilizational Tide: The Ukrainian National Revolution......Page 208 Summary and Conclusion......Page 216 5 Tides and the Failure of Nationalist Mobilization......Page 218 Conceptualizing Outcomes Within a Tide of Nationalism......Page 220 The Structural Underpinnings of Failures of Action......Page 226 Exploring Anomalous Cases......Page 240 Tide and Structure in Time and Space......Page 251 Tides, Structure, and Failures of Mobilizational Effect......Page 255 Tides and the Strategic Appropriation of Nationalism......Page 270 Summary and Conclusion......Page 287 6 Violence and Tides of Nationalism......Page 289 The Limits of Structural Explanations of Mobilized Nationalist Violence......Page 294 Tides, the Institutionalization of Mobilization, and Nationalist Violence......Page 302 The State and the Origin of Waves of Nationalist Violence......Page 311 From Mobilized to Organized and Sustained Violence......Page 323 Summary and Conclusion......Page 335 7 The Transcendence of Regimes of Repression......Page 338 The Brezhnevian Regime of Repression......Page 348 Glasnost’ and the Legal Regulation of Revolt......Page 352 First Attempts to Reestablish Order......Page 360 The “Tbilisi Syndrome”......Page 365 The Shifting Mobilization/Repression Relationship......Page 372 Why Severe Force Was Not Seriously Contemplated......Page 384 Why Force Could Not Have Saved the USSR......Page 389 Summary and Conclusion......Page 401 8 Russian Mobilization and the Accumulating “Inevitability” of Soviet Collapse......Page 403 Russians and the Tide of Nationalism......Page 408 From the Streets to Dvoevlastie......Page 419 The Accumulating “Inevitability” of Disintegration......Page 434 The Denouement......Page 443 The Termination of the Soviet State......Page 448 Summary and Conclusion......Page 459 9 Conclusion: Nationhood and Event......Page 461 Appendix I Procedures for Applying Event Analysis to the Study of Soviet Protest in the Glasnost’ Era......Page 478 Appendix II Sources for the Compilation of Event Data in a Revolutionary Context......Page 490 Western News Sources and Publications......Page 499 Official Soviet or Post-Soviet News Sources and Publications......Page 500 Émigré News Sources and Publications......Page 501 Unofficial Soviet, or Post-Soviet, News Sources and Publications......Page 502 Index......Page 507 ISBN-13: 9780521806701 Half-title 3 Series-title 5 Dedication 6 Title 7 Copyright 8 Contents 9 Illustrations 11 Tables 13 Acknowledgments 15 1 From the Impossible to the Inevitable 19 Structural Facilitation, Institutional Constraint, and Contentious Event 30 Order, Event, and Tides of Nationalism 36 Plan of the Book and Summary of the Arguments 52 Research Strategies and Evidence 59 2 The Tide of Nationalism and the Mobilizational Cycle 65 Historical Background 67 From Institutions to the Streets 75 Defining a Tide Within a Cycle 87 The Diffusion and Normalization of Contention 97 The Mobilizational Effect on Institutions 110 Summary and Conclusion 119 3 Structuring Nationalism 121 Nationalism in Time 122 Nationalism in Space 125 Nationalism in Space-Time (I): The Temporal Spread of Nationalist Contention 141 Nationalism in Space-Time (II): The Systematic Effects of Event-Specific Processes 147 Summary and Conclusion 163 4 “Thickened” History and the Mobilization of Identity 165 The Mobilization of Identity as Political Process 168 Secessionist Mobilization within the Glasnost’ Tide of Nationalism 177 Baltic Nationalisms and the Politics of Emboldening and Persuasion 184 Emulation, Emboldening, Repulsion: The Rise of Georgian Separatism 196 The Gradual Emergence of a Secessionist Consciousness Among Armenians 204 Riding a Mobilizational Tide: The Ukrainian National Revolution 208 Summary and Conclusion 216 5 Tides and the Failure of Nationalist Mobilization 218 Conceptualizing Outcomes Within a Tide of Nationalism 220 The Structural Underpinnings of Failures of Action 226 Exploring Anomalous Cases 240 Tide and Structure in Time and Space 251 Tides, Structure, and Failures of Mobilizational Effect 255 Tides and the Strategic Appropriation of Nationalism 270 Summary and Conclusion 287 6 Violence and Tides of Nationalism 289 The Limits of Structural Explanations of Mobilized Nationalist Violence 294 Tides, the Institutionalization of Mobilization, and Nationalist Violence 302 The State and the Origin of Waves of Nationalist Violence 311 From Mobilized to Organized and Sustained Violence 323 Summary and Conclusion 335 7 The Transcendence of Regimes of Repression 338 The Brezhnevian Regime of Repression 348 Glasnost’ and the Legal Regulation of Revolt 352 First Attempts to Reestablish Order 360 The “Tbilisi Syndrome” 365 The Shifting Mobilization/Repression Relationship 372 Why Severe Force Was Not Seriously Contemplated 384 Why Force Could Not Have Saved the USSR 389 Summary and Conclusion 401 8 Russian Mobilization and the Accumulating “Inevitability” of Soviet Collapse 403 Russians and the Tide of Nationalism 408 From the Streets to Dvoevlastie 419 The Accumulating “Inevitability” of Disintegration 434 The Denouement 443 The Termination of the Soviet State 448 Summary and Conclusion 459 9 Conclusion: Nationhood and Event 461 Appendix I Procedures for Applying Event Analysis to the Study of Soviet Protest in the Glasnost’ Era 478 Appendix II Sources for the Compilation of Event Data in a Revolutionary Context 490 Western News Sources and Publications 499 Official Soviet or Post-Soviet News Sources and Publications 500 Émigré News Sources and Publications 501 Unofficial Soviet, or Post-Soviet, News Sources and Publications 502 Index 507

This study examines the process of the disintegration of the Soviet state.

Foreign Affairs

In another important addition to Russian studies, Beissinger does more than simply trace the rise of nationalism within the republics of the Soviet Union, including Russia, by subjecting more than 6,000 public demonstrations from 1987 to 1991 to careful statistical analysis. He also shows how the process escalated, spread, and flowed together until it became a tide dictating political choices and historical outcomes. The Soviet Union's demise, he argues, was not inevitable, but through the force of events it became so. Indeed, by superbly reconstructing the state of play in 1989-90, he demonstrates that the state was doomed long before the August 1991 coup. But his complex account of how the political environment, institutions, and events interacted to produce the tide does not leave much room for the wisdom and folly of leaders. Could the collapse of the Soviet Union have been prevented? By 1989 or 1990, probably not. A year or two earlier? The answer is not here.

This study examines the process by which the seemingly impossible in 1987--the disintegration of the Soviet state--became the seemingly inevitable by 1991. It provides an original interpretation of not only the Soviet collapse, but also of the phenomenon of nationalism more generally. Probing the role of nationalist action as both cause and effect, Beissinger utilizes extensive event data and detailed case studies from across the U.S.S.R. during its final years to elicit the shifting relationship between pre-existing structural conditions, institutional constraints, and event-generated influences in the massive nationalist explosions that brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union. This study examines the process of the disintegration of the Soviet state. The author uses data and case studies from across the USSR to elicit the shifting relationship between existing structural conditions and institutional constraints "On May 18, 1991, two Soviet cosmonauts blasted off from the Baikonur cosmodrome for a routine four-month mission abroad the Mir space station."