National Project Management: The Sunshine Project and the Rise of the Japanese Solar Industry (Advances in Japanese Business and Economics Book 25)

This book clarifies the challenges and outcomes of the Sunshine Project, a national project in Japan for developing new energy that was launched about 40 years ago at the time of the first oil crisis in the early 1970s and ended, as planned, in the early 2000s. The Sunshine Project was the government’s national project for developing new energy technologies such as solar energy and other natural energy sources—what we call renewable energy today. The book considers why policies were successful in some areas but did not have the intended effect in other areas. It explains how technology innovation was employed to achieve energy policy goals and to tackle environmental issues. If we can present suggestions for how to structure national projects, it may also be possible to identify ways for industry, government, and academia to come together to find solutions not only to environmental energy problems, but also to other social problems. Herein lies the goal of this book. Although the development of new energy is the main subject of the book, the author also scrutinizes the governmental decision-making process involved in planning policy, the creative process, and the design of systems of collaboration between industry, government, and academia as well as cases where corporations have developed commercial versions of new energy products. The main part of the book consists of three case studies interspersed with two reflective chapters. The first case study describes the Sunshine Project from the perspective of project management based on the perspective of government. The second case study is a detailed examination of the routines in all organizations, whether industry, government, or academia, and of the autonomy of the project organization. The third case study increases the degree of detail to focus on the smallest unit of analysis, the intentions and motivations of key individuals participating in the project. Preface 6 Acknowledgements 20 Contents 24 About the Author 29 1 Defining the Problem: Solutions Based on Innovative Answers to Social Problems 30 1.1 Unintended Consequences of National Projects 30 1.2 A Peek Inside Projects Based on Industry–Government–Academia Collaboration 32 1.3 Solutions Based on Innovative Answers to Social Problems 34 1.4 Twists and Turns in the Development of Renewable Energy 36 1.5 Research Angles on National Projects 38 1.6 The History of National Projects 41 1.7 The History of Industrial Policy in Japan 43 1.8 Technology Policy Tools at the MITI AIST 46 1.9 The Sunshine Project 51 References 53 2 What is the Sunshine Project: Overview of the Project 54 2.1 Introduction 54 2.2 Project Budget 55 2.3 Corporate Investment in Photovoltaic Energy 60 2.4 Outcomes of New Industry Development 63 2.5 Substituting Oil with New Energy 65 References 68 3 Case Study: Managing Technology Development 70 3.1 The Origins of the Sunshine Project 70 3.1.1 Draft Proposal Preceding the Oil Crisis 70 3.1.2 Symptoms of an Energy Crisis 71 3.1.3 Energy Conservation Policies and Setting Up the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy 74 3.1.4 The Emergence of Long-Term, Large-Scale Projects 76 3.1.5 The Club of Rome Warning 77 3.1.6 The Energy Crisis Transformed into Reality 79 3.2 The Start of the Solar Energy Project 82 3.2.1 Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic Energy: A Two-Pronged Strategy 82 3.2.2 Taking Advantage of Specialized Technologies at Corporations 84 3.2.3 The Outcome of the Photovoltaic Energy Project of the 1970s 86 3.3 Establishing NEDO and Accelerating Plans Due to the Second Oil Shock 88 3.3.1 The Need for a Project Implementation Unit 88 3.3.2 Testing Solar and Photovoltaic Plants 94 3.4 The Emergence of Amorphous Materials 97 3.4.1 The Emergence of Amorphous Solar Cells 97 3.5 The Crude Oil Price Slumps and the Project Is Restructured 101 3.5.1 The Unexpected Slump in Crude Oil Prices 101 3.5.2 New Energy Development: Outcomes 104 3.6 Project Outcomes 105 3.6.1 Managing Technology Development 105 3.6.2 Competition in a Tri-Polar Structure 108 3.7 Environmental Issues and the New Sunshine Project 110 3.8 Project Contributions 112 3.8.1 Infrastructure Development 112 3.8.2 The Significance of the Sunshine Project 114 References 117 4 From the Rational Model to the Natural System Model: Changing Perspectives I 119 4.1 Case Study Summary 119 4.2 The Rational Explanation for Case Studies 121 4.3 National Project Research 125 4.4 Case Study Shortcomings 129 References 131 5 The Legitimacy of System Survival 133 5.1 The Origins of the Sunshine Project 133 5.1.1 Long-Term and Large-Scale Plans to Avoid Risk 133 5.1.2 The Fight for Survival in the Electricity Sector 135 5.1.3 Inflating Project Proposals to Obtain a Budget 137 5.1.4 Inflating the Project Proposal 140 5.1.5 The Process of Consulting with Committees 146 5.1.6 The Oil Shock—A Godsend 147 5.2 The Start of the Solar Power Project 151 5.2.1 Heat and Light—Association with Sunshine 151 5.2.2 Expectations of Prospective Corporations 152 5.2.3 Participation in the Sunshine Project by Corporations with Little Appetite for Commercial Development 154 5.2.4 AIST Policy of Transition to Domestic Production 156 5.3 Accelerating the Project and Establishing NEDO Due to the Second Oil Crisis 159 5.3.1 Insistence on Setting Up a Semigovernmental Corporation 159 5.3.2 Leaning Toward Coal Energy for Reasons of Budget Justification 164 5.4 Amorphous Materials Emerge 169 5.5 The Slump in Oil Prices and Project Reorganization 171 5.5.1 The Decline in NEDO Initiatives 171 5.5.2 The Contradictory Nature of NEDO’s Public Status and Policy of Utilizing Private Sector Resources 174 5.6 AIST’s Policy Change 178 5.7 Environmental Issues and the New Sunshine Project 183 5.8 NEDO’s Forgets Its Mission, and Becomes Institutionalized as Its Existence Is Taken for Granted 184 References 190 6 From the Natural System Model to the Society Development Model: Changing Perspectives II 192 6.1 Summary of Case Study 2 192 6.2 Organizational and Institutional Descriptions of Cases 194 6.3 National Project Research 201 6.4 Aspects of Cases Lacking Sufficient Explanation 205 References 207 7 The Politics of Creating New Significance 209 7.1 The Origins of the Sunshine Project 209 7.1.1 The Hesitancy of the Research and Development Officials 209 7.1.2 Dreams and Cold Shoulders for the Solar Energy Researchers 211 7.1.3 Creating New Significance for New Energy 215 7.1.4 An Alliance of Development Officials and Researchers 218 7.1.5 The Cooperation of Dokō Toshio 221 7.1.6 Snowballing PR and Expansion of the Project PR 222 7.2 The Start of the Solar Energy Project 227 7.2.1 Backdated Rearrangement of Company Research Proposal Themes 227 7.2.2 Sharp: In Search of a New Method for Manufacturing Silicon 228 7.2.3 Matsushita Electric Industrial: Compounds or Silicon? 231 7.2.4 Kyocera: Opposition to the Sunshine Project 234 7.3 Acceleration of the Project Due to the Second Oil Crisis and the Establishment of NEDO 237 7.3.1 Conception of the Rainbow Project 237 7.3.2 NEDO as a Think-Tank for Collaboration Between Industry, Government, and Academia 238 7.4 The Emergence of Amorphous Materials 245 7.4.1 The Amorphous Researchers Group 245 7.4.2 Sanyo Electric Pledges to Develop Amorphous Solar Cells for Practical Use 252 7.5 Falling Crude Oil Prices and Reorganization of the Project 259 7.6 Project Outcomes 263 7.6.1 Sharp and Kyocera’s Response 263 7.6.2 Technology Development Policies of Sharp, Kyocera, Sanyo and Matsushita 264 7.6.3 Company Interests Become More Evident 267 7.7 Environmental Issues and the New Sunshine Project 273 7.8 Conclusion 278 References 281 8 Organizational Analysis from Multiple Perspectives: Conclusions 283 8.1 Summary of Case Study 3 283 8.2 Explanations for the Case from the Perspectives of Politics and Social Construction 285 8.3 Significance of Analysis Using Three Models 294 8.4 Application of the Third Model—From Political Conflicts to Social Construction Based on Agreements 297 8.5 Organizational Analysis from Multiple Perspectives: Multiple Conceptual Lenses 300 8.6 Levels of Systems 302 8.7 Controllability in Uncontrollable Matters: Agreements on Images of the Future 307 References 308 9 Developments After the Project 311 9.1 Sudden Changes After the Completion of the Sunshine Project 311 9.2 Changes in the Competitive Environment from the Middle of the 2000s 315 9.3 Strategies Adopted by Each Company 319 9.3.1 Sharp: Hedging Risks with Multiple Development Approaches and Advancing into the Upstream and Downstream Sections of Value Chains 320 9.3.2 Kyocera: Concentration on Polycrystalline Silicon and Consumer Products 324 9.3.3 Sanyo Electric: Focusing on High-Performance HIT Solar Cells 325 9.4 Trends Among Overseas Companies: How Long Will Their Rapid Advance Continue? 327 9.4.1 Q Cells 327 9.4.2 Suntech Power 328 9.4.3 First Solar 329 9.5 Conclusion 331 References 333 Bibliography 334 Publications 334 Documents 342 Newspapers and Magazines 343 Websites, Databases, Etc. 344 Interviews Conducted by the Author 344 Names of People 345 Index 348 Subject Index 352 Front Matter ....Pages i-xxix Defining the Problem: Solutions Based on Innovative Answers to Social Problems (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 1-24 What is the Sunshine Project: Overview of the Project (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 25-40 Case Study: Managing Technology Development (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 41-89 From the Rational Model to the Natural System Model: Changing Perspectives I (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 91-104 The Legitimacy of System Survival (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 105-163 From the Natural System Model to the Society Development Model: Changing Perspectives II (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 165-181 The Politics of Creating New Significance (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 183-256 Organizational Analysis from Multiple Perspectives: Conclusions (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 257-284 Developments After the Project (Minoru Shimamoto)....Pages 285-307 Back Matter ....Pages 309-331