Multiregional Flood Footprint Analysis : An Appraisal of the Economic Impact of Flooding Events

The climate is changing, bringing with it increasing natural disasters around the world. The progress of societies lies in their ability to adapt to the new climatic conditions. Effective climate-adaptation strategies must be based in the sound analysis of the costs of the disasters, as well as the potential benefits and beneficiaries of adaptation strategies. This book offers an appraisal method to capture the total economic costs of flooding events: the Multiregional Flood Footprint Analysis. It captures the economic costs directly caused by physical destruction, and disruptive implications in production propagated through inter-industrial linkages in the current context of a global economy. The proposed method uses the fundamentals of the Input-Output analysis (IOA) in a multiregional dimension. It concludes that damages from natural disasters in one part of the globe may affect many economic sectors in the rest of the world, increasing the need for global adaptation strategies. Acknowledgments 6 Contents 7 List of Figures 9 List of Table 10 Chapter 1: Introduction 11 Chapter 2: Theoretical and Methodological Background 12 2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 Applications of Standard IO Analysis to Disasters 14 2.2.1 Supply IO Model: The Ghosh Model 15 2.2.2 Reinterpretation as a Price Model 16 2.2.3 Hypothetical Extraction 17 2.2.4 Applications to Disasters 18 2.3 Economic-Ecological IO Model 19 2.4 Multiregional and Interregional IO 21 2.4.1 Interregional IO Model (IRIO) 21 2.4.2 Multiregional IO (MRIO) Model 24 2.4.2.1 The Basic Model 24 2.4.2.2 Applications to Disasters 26 2.5 IO Approach for Disaster Impact Analysis: Indirect Cost Appraisal 27 2.5.1 Modelling the Risks 27 2.5.2 Time-Dynamic Extensions 28 2.5.3 Modelling Imbalances 28 2.5.4 Recent Developments 29 Chapter 3: The Flood Footprint Analysis: A Proposal 31 3.1 Flood Footprint for a Single Region 31 3.1.1 Sources of Post-disaster Inequalities 32 3.1.1.1 Labour Productivity Constraints 33 3.1.1.2 Capital Productivity Constraints 33 3.1.1.3 Post-disaster Final Demand 34 3.1.2 Post-disaster Recovery Process 35 3.1.2.1 Rationing Scheme 36 3.1.2.2 Imports 37 3.1.2.3 Recovery Process 38 3.1.3 Flood Footprint Modelling Outcomes 39 3.1.3.1 Direct and Indirect Costs 39 3.1.3.2 Flowchart for Flood Footprint Modelling 40 3.1.4 Regionalisation of IO Technical Coefficients 43 3.2 Methodology for the Multiregional Flood Footprint Analysis (MFFA) 45 3.2.1 The Model 45 3.2.2 Main Constraints 48 3.2.2.1 Production Constraints 48 3.2.2.2 Labour Productivity Constraints 48 3.2.3 Production Constraints by Capital 49 3.2.4 Changes in Final Demand 49 3.2.5 Post-disaster Recovery Process 50 3.3 Final Remarks 52 Chapter 4: Case Applications 53 4.1 Single-Region FFA: The Case of the 2007 Floods in Yorkshire and the Humber, UK 53 4.1.1 The Floods 54 4.1.1.1 Data Gathering and Codification 54 4.1.1.2 Economic Data 54 4.1.1.3 Disaster Data 55 4.1.2 Model Results 57 4.1.2.1 Total Economic Losses for Yorkshire and the Humber Region 57 4.1.3 Sectoral Analysis 59 4.1.4 Case Summary 60 4.2 Single-Region FFA for Multiple Regions: The Case of the 2010 Windstorm Xynthia in Europe 61 4.2.1 The Windstorm 61 4.2.2 The Model ́s Results 62 4.2.2.1 Direct and Cumulative Indirect Impacts 62 4.2.2.2 Industrial Direct Damages 63 4.2.2.3 Residential Direct Damages 63 4.2.2.4 Indirect Damages 64 4.2.2.5 Windstorm Footprint 64 4.2.2.6 Sectoral Distribution 64 4.2.2.7 National Distribution of Damages by Industrial Sector 64 4.2.3 Summary 65 4.3 Adaptation Benefits: The Case of Blue-Green Infrastructure in Newcastle, UK 67 4.3.1 BGI for Flood Risk Management 68 4.3.2 Methodology Rationale 69 4.3.3 Data Gathering and Codification 70 4.3.3.1 Hazard Information 70 4.3.3.2 Infrastructure Information 71 4.3.3.3 Damage Functions 71 4.3.3.4 Economic Data for Flood Footprint Model 72 4.3.3.5 Disaster Data 72 4.3.4 The Model ́s Results 73 4.3.4.1 BGI Benefits 74 4.3.4.2 Sectoral Distribution of Benefits 75 4.3.5 Summary 75 4.4 MFFA: Projected Case for Rotterdam, the Netherlands 76 4.4.1 Contextual Information of Rotterdam 77 4.4.1.1 General Information 77 4.4.1.2 Historical Flood Risk Context 78 4.4.1.3 Urban Planning Context 79 4.4.1.4 Institutional Context 79 4.4.2 The Data 80 4.4.2.1 Disaster Information 80 4.4.2.2 Economic Information 81 4.4.2.3 Economic Data for Rotterdam 82 4.4.3 Results of the Multiregional Flood Footprint Analysis 82 4.4.3.1 Direct and Indirect Damage 82 4.4.3.2 Recovery Path 83 4.4.3.3 Regional Distribution 84 4.4.3.4 Sectoral Distribution 85 4.4.4 Summary 86 Chapter 5: Concluding Remarks 88 5.1 Contribution to Knowledge 88 5.2 Key Method Development 88 5.2.1 Extension 89 5.2.2 Applicability 89 5.2.3 Adaptability 90 5.3 Policy Implications 90 5.4 Implications for Stakeholders and Policy Makers 91 5.5 Limitations of the MFFA 91 5.6 Future Research 92 References 93