Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction : Proceedings of the International Symposium on Earthquake Prediction in the North Anatolian Fault Zone held in Istanbul, March 31–April 5, 1980

Studies of the sources of earthquakes, the only way towards a successful prediction, requires a broad interdisciplinary approach and cooperation between scientists in various fields of earth sciences. Seismotectonic studies, observation of strain accumulation and investigation of the physical state and temporal changes of rock properties in the earthquake source region are mainly the lines to be followed. Modelling of earthquake generatingprocesses constrained by the complexity of precursory phenomena is a necessary basis of prediction research. The North-Anatolian fault zone is an area of extremely high earthquake risk. Large and destructive earthquakes have occurred during the last decades. A clearly defined migration of earthquake foci indicates that destructive earthquakes are most likely to occur in a most populated and industrialized part of Turkey. The chances "to capture an earthquake" by proper selection of observation sites and networks and to find criteria for earthquake prediction by observation of earthquake generating processes seem rather promising in the case of the North-Anatolian fault zone. An international and interdisciplinary conference was held in Istanbul. Experts in the fields of geophysics, geology and geodesy from many countries in Europe and overseas concerned with earthquake research and hazard assessment took part. They met to present results of earlier research, to discuss current research activities relevant to earthquake prediction in the North-Anatolian fault zone and to work out and organize a program for earthquake prediction research in the most riskful part of the fault zone. Front Matter....Pages I-XVIII Front Matter....Pages 1-1 Tectonics of the North Anatolian Transform Fault....Pages 3-22 Paleo-, Tardi- and Neotectonic Mechanisms of the Present North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Light of the Structural History of the Eurasian Margin in the Pontic Ranges....Pages 23-42 Structural Evidence for Left-Lateral Displacement on the North Anatolian Fault Zone During the Plio-Pleistocene....Pages 43-44 Geology of an Area in and Around the Northern Anatolian Transform Fault Zone Between Bolu and Akyazi....Pages 45-65 Comparisons Between the North Anatolian Fault of Turkey and the San Andreas Fault of California....Pages 67-85 Front Matter....Pages 87-87 Identification of Swarm Activity Using the MARNET Telemetered Seismometer-Network....Pages 89-93 Earthquake Activity on the North Anatolian Fault Zone....Pages 95-113 A Rational Approach for the Probabilistic Assessment of the Seismic Risk Associated with the North Anatolian Fault....Pages 115-127 Seismotectonic Aspects of the North Anatolian Fault Zone Between Bolu and Havza....Pages 129-135 Relationship Between Fault Geometry and Some Earthquake Epicentres within the North Anatolian Zone....Pages 137-142 Preliminary Studies of Seismic Risk in Turkey, and the Occurrence of Upper Bounded and Other Large Earthquake Magnitudes....Pages 143-172 Faults and Recently Active Breaks Along the North Anatolian Fault Zone Between Gerede and Ilgaz....Pages 173-184 Some Aspects of the Seismicity in the North Anatolian Fault Zone....Pages 185-191 A Comparative Analysis of the Seismotectonic Characteristics of the North Anatolian Fracture Zone and the Fracture System of Inner Dinarides....Pages 193-206 Fatigue Crack Propagation Along the Anatolian Faults and Levant Coast and Earthquake Prediction....Pages 207-221 Some Aspects of the North Anatolian Fault Zone Derived from the Comparison of its Instrumental Data with Historical Information....Pages 223-238 A Statistical Analysis of the Major and Microearthquakes Along the East-Anatolian Fault....Pages 239-257 Front Matter....Pages 259-259 Possible Use of Tilt and Tidal Measurements for Earthquake Prediction....Pages 261-267 Normal Earthquake Gravitational Precursors from Earth-Tide Data....Pages 269-277 Creep Measurements in the Ismetpaşa Region of the North Anatolian Fault Zone....Pages 279-292 Front Matter....Pages 293-293 Possible Use of the Turkish National Triangulation Network for the Study of Crustal Movements in the North Anatolian Fault Zone....Pages 295-299 Θ 2 Testing for Survey of Recent Crustal Deformation in Akyazi/Adapazari....Pages 301-305 Detection of Crustal Motion by Repeated Geometric Observations....Pages 307-314 Land Deformation Control Network in the Epicentral Region of the 1978 Earthquakes in Northern Greece....Pages 315-324 Methods of Variance Analysis for the Evaluation of Geodetic Control Nets in Relation to Crustal Movements....Pages 325-333 A Geometric-Gravimetric Estimation Procedure for Most Accurate Determination of Relative Point Displacements in Local Areas — Proposal and First Study of Sensitivity....Pages 335-350 Suggestions for High Precision Gravity Measurements in Geodynamic and Earthquake Prediction Research....Pages 351-358 Front Matter....Pages 359-359 Physical Parameters in the Earthquake Source Region and Their Temporal Changes....Pages 361-403 Polarization Anomalies as Diagnostics of Dilatancy....Pages 405-408 An Experiment to Investigate Polarization Anomalies in North Anatolia....Pages 409-412 Possible Information on Local Features of the Focal Region Based on Geomagnetic Field Data Recorded After the Main Shock....Pages 413-426 Investigations of Geophysical Parameters in the Area of Carinthia and Friuli in Relation to Seismicity....Pages 427-433 Note on the Application of the PCA Method — A Possible Approach to the Problem of Elimination of Non-Local Geomagnetic Field Changes....Pages 435-437 Front Matter....Pages 439-439 Application of Space Technology in Earthquake Prediction Research — A Short Review....Pages 441-445 The Background to High Mobility Space Geodetic Techniques for Geodynamic and Earthquake Prediction Research....Pages 447-448 The Installation of a Spacebome Ranging System for the Detection of Crustal Movements in the North Anatolian Fault Zone....Pages 449-455 The Meteosat Data Collection System and its Potential as a Data Relay for Geophysical Measurements....Pages 457-468 Front Matter....Pages 469-469 Stress Accumulated Mechanisms on Strike-Slip Faults....Pages 471-485 Fracture Mechanics Modelling of Earthquake Generating Processes....Pages 487-521 Analysis of Stress and Strain Around a Transform Fault....Pages 523-538 Front Matter....Pages 469-469 A Multiple Mode of Faulting Mechanism Proposed for the North Anatolian Fault and Prediction of Related Earthquakes....Pages 539-547 A Thermal Window in the Lithosphere Underneath North Anatolia and California....Pages 549-552 Front Matter....Pages 553-553 The Concept of a Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction....Pages 555-561 Deterministic Earthquake Prediction — Present Stage and Future Developments....Pages 563-575 Earthquake Research on the San Andreas Fault Zone, California....Pages 577-578