Moving Out of Poverty, Volume 4: Rising from the Ashes of Conflict

“There is no peace with hunger. Only promises and promises and no fulfillment. If there is no job, there is no peace. If there is nothing to cook in the pot, there is no peace.” - Oscar, a 57-year-old man, El Gorri?n, Colombia “They want to construct their houses near the road, and they cannot do that if they do not have peace with their enemies. So peace and the road have developed a symbiotic relation. One cannot live without the other. . . .” - A community leader from a conflict-affected community on the island of Mindanao, Philippines Most conflict studies focus on the national level, but this volume focuses on the community level. It explores how communities experience and recover from violent conflict, and the surprising opportunities that can emerge for poor people to move out of poverty in these harsh contexts. 'Rising from the Ashes of Conflict' reveals how poor people’s mobility is shaped by local democracy, people’s associations, aid strategies, and the local economic environment in over 100 communities in seven conflict-affected countries, including Afghanistan. The findings suggest the need to rethink postconflict development assistance. This is the fourth volume in a series derived from the Moving Out of Poverty study, which explores mobility from the perspectives of poor people in more than 500 communities across 15 countries. Contents......Page 9 Foreword......Page 17 Study Team and Acknowledgments......Page 19 Contributors......Page 23 Abbreviations......Page 27 Part 1: Building States from the Bottom Up in Conflict-Affected Countries......Page 29 1 Moving Out of Poverty in Conflict Communities......Page 30 2 First Steps: Security, Law and Order, and Legitimacy......Page 54 3 Democracy: Big “D” and Little “d”......Page 80 4 Nation Building from Below: Identity, Unity, and Civic Engagement......Page 124 5 The Economic Environment......Page 156 6 Aid Strategies: Can Chickens and Miserly Handouts Reduce Poverty?......Page 188 7 Concluding Reflections......Page 210 Part 2: Country Case Studies......Page 219 8 Violence, Forced Displacement, and Chronic Poverty in Colombia......Page 220 9 From Milkless Cows to Coconut Trees: Recovery from All-Out War in Mindanao, Philippines......Page 276 10 Disturbing the Equilibrium: Movements Out of Poverty in Conflict-Affected Areas of Indonesia......Page 318 11 Community Well-Being and Household Mobility in Postconflict Cambodia......Page 366 12 Sri Lanka: Unequal Mobility in an Ethnic Civil War......Page 404 13 Post-Taliban Recovery and the Promise of Community-Driven Development in Afghanistan......Page 446 Part 3: Technical Appendixes......Page 501 A: Researchers and Institutions Involved in Conflict Country Studies......Page 503 B: Overview of Study Methodology......Page 507 C: Data Collection Methods......Page 533 D: List of Variables for Community Regressions......Page 537 E: Weights for the PCA-Constructed Indexes......Page 541 F: Additional Tables for Part 1......Page 543 Index......Page 561 3.1 Definitions of democracy in Afghanistan and Indonesia......Page 85 5.1 Militarized dreams of young children in high-conflict La Soledad, Colombia......Page 168 8.1 Partial recovery in Villa Rosa: Alicia’s story......Page 252 8.2 Violence against Co-Agro......Page 262 11.1 Somrampi: The trap of poor governance and continued insecurity......Page 394 13.1 Lack of economic catalysts and postwar collapse in urban Shazimir......Page 468 13.2 Ramili Qali: Giving up poppy in exchange for aid......Page 475 13.3 A gender revolution, yet to come......Page 490 1.1 MOP by initial poverty level, conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 49 2.1 Trust in local government among movers and chronic poor in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 61 2.2 Lack of safety in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 64 2.3 Leading actors involved in conflict and peacemaking in Abanang, Philippines......Page 74 3.2 Democratic structures by conflict and MOP rating, 2005......Page 88 3.3 Optimism about improving conditions in the future......Page 91 3.4 Representation on local councils in conflict and nonconflict communities, 2005......Page 94 3.5 Representation on local councils by conflict and MOP rating, 2005......Page 95 3.6 Responsiveness of local leaders in conflict and nonconflict communities, 2005......Page 99 3.7 Responsiveness of local leaders by conflict and MOP rating, 2005......Page 100 3.9 Change in corruption and bribery, 1995–2005, by conflict and MOP rating......Page 102 3.10 Perceptions of democracy and civic engagement in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 104 3.11 Formal democratic attributes by conflict rating and country income level, 2005......Page 107 3.12 Functional democratic attributes by conflict rating and country income level, 2005......Page 108 4.1 Mean number of local associations by type in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 143 4.8 Change in mean number of each type of local association by conflict and MOP rating, 1995–2005......Page 145 4.3 MOP by religious and ethnic heterogeneity of most important associations in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 147 5.1 Change in economic indicators in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995–2005......Page 160 5.2 Sources of income for movers in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 164 5.3 Infrastructure and access to facilities by MOP and conflict rating, 2005......Page 175 5.4 Availability of credit sources in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 182 6.1 Development projects in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995–2005......Page 203 8.1 Distribution of Colombia sample households by mobility group......Page 231 8.2 Mobility outcomes in Los Rincones and La Soledad, Colombia......Page 238 8.3 Confidence ratings in public authorities and NGOs, Colombia study communities......Page 250 8.4 Average household membership in organizations, Colombia study communities......Page 257 8.5 Mobility outcomes in Santa María and El Mirador, Colombia......Page 260 8A.1 Ladder of life for El Gorrión, prepared by a women’s focus group......Page 268 10.1 Population changes in the Indonesia study communities, 1995–2005......Page 331 10.2 Changes in poverty rates in Indonesia study communities in high- and low-growth districts, 1995–2005......Page 333 10.3 Net prosperity index (NPI), moving out of poverty index (MOP), and mobility of the poor index (MPI) in the Indonesia study communities......Page 334 10.4 Satisfaction with local governance and democracy in the Indonesia study provinces, 2005......Page 344 10.5 Group membership in the Indonesia study communities, by province......Page 349 10.6 Perceived distinctions due to religion, social status, or wealth in the Indonesia study communities, by province......Page 353 11.1 Distribution of mobility groups in the Cambodia study communities......Page 374 13.1 Collapse and recovery of community well-being in Ramili Qali, Afghanistan......Page 451 13.2 Relationship of the community poverty line to the official poverty line according to focus groups of men and women, Afghanistan study communities......Page 460 13.3 Most important reasons for household downward mobility, Afghanistan study communities......Page 464 13.4 Most important reasons for household upward mobility, Afghanistan study communities......Page 471 13.5 Motivations for poppy cultivation in Afghanistan......Page 474 13.6 Shifts over 10 years in distribution of households on the community ladder of well-being, Nasher Khan and Morlaw Ghano, Afghanistan......Page 482 B.1 Factors influencing movement out of poverty in Galalolo, Indonesia......Page 510 B.2 Conceptual framework of the Moving Out of Poverty study......Page 512 B.3 Community mobility matrix from Bodolenge, Indonesia, based on male focus group discussion......Page 523 8.1 Colombia with study municipalities......Page 226 9.1 The Philippines with study municipalities......Page 284 10.1 Indonesia with study provinces......Page 323 11.1 Cambodia with study communities......Page 372 12.1 Sri Lanka with study provinces and districts......Page 412 13.1 Afghanistan with study districts......Page 452 1.1 Distribution of study communities by country and presence of conflict......Page 39 1.2 Nature of conflict over 10 years in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 40 1.3 Summary indicators of mobility......Page 45 1.5 Mean MOP in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 46 1.6 Mean mobility indicators in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 47 1.7 Mean mobility indicators in conflict and nonconflict communities, by country......Page 48 3.1 Corruption and bribery in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 101 3.2 Levels of violence in low-income and middle-income countries, 1995 and 2005......Page 106 3.3 Regression results for conflict and peaceful communities and countries......Page 112 4.2 Religious polarization by MOP rating in conflict and nonconflict communities, 2005......Page 133 4.4 Decrease in inequality among religious and ethnic groups over 10 years, in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 135 4.5 Trends in economic inequality and economic access over 10 years, in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 137 4.6 Extent of disputes and involvement of youth in disputes over 10 years, in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 141 4.7 Change in mean number of associations by type, 1995–2005, in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 144 5.1 Indicators of general economic performance in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 159 5.2 Factors that led to community prosperity in conflict-affected communities in North Maluku, Indonesia......Page 171 5.3 Reasons for upward mobility of mover households in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 174 8.2 Distribution of Colombia sample households by mobility group......Page 227 8.3 Colombia study communities ranked by mobility index......Page 232 8.4 Security conditions and trends in Colombia study communities......Page 234 8.5 Reports of armed actors and related violence in Colombia study communities......Page 236 8.6 Current and initial sources of household income in Colombia study communities......Page 244 8.7 Perceptions on the functioning of local democracy in Colombia study communities......Page 248 9.1 Economic mobility and conflict ratings in Mindanao study communities......Page 285 9.2 Ethnoreligious divisions in Mindanao study communities......Page 288 9.3 Access to infrastructure in Mindanao study communities......Page 294 9.4 Access to services in Mindanao study communities......Page 295 9.5 Perceptions of the quality of governance and democracy in Mindanao study communities......Page 302 9.6 Key characteristics of Mindanao study communities with high and low MOP......Page 313 10.1 Profile of the Indonesia study provinces......Page 324 10.3 Major ethnic and religious groups in the Indonesia study communities, 2005......Page 325 10.4 Growth, inequality, and mobility in the Indonesia study communities......Page 332 10.5 Infrastructure assistance and key factors that helped prosperity in North Maluku, Indonesia......Page 337 10.6 Infrastructure assistance and key factors that helped prosperity in East Java, Indonesia......Page 338 10.7 Most important groups and organizations in the Indonesia study communities......Page 350 11.1 Profile of Cambodia study communities......Page 371 11.2 Distribution of mobility groups in the Cambodia household sample......Page 373 11.3 Distribution of Cambodia study communities by conflict area and mobility performance......Page 376 11.4 Number of development interventions in Cambodia study communities, by conflict area, 1992–2004/05......Page 387 12.1 Conflict intensity and ethnic composition of Sri Lanka study communities......Page 411 12.2 Sample ladder of life in Kaithamavi, Sri Lanka......Page 413 12.3 Mobility outcomes of Sri Lanka study communities......Page 415 12.4 Profile of study communities, Jaffna district, Sri Lanka......Page 418 12.5 Profile of study communities, Trincomalee district, Sri Lanka......Page 424 12.6 Profile of study communities, Ampara district, Sri Lanka......Page 428 Ladder of life in Ramili Qali, Parwan province, Afghanistan......Page 455 13.2 Profile of Afghanistan study communities......Page 458 13.3 Mobility outcomes in Afghanistan study communities......Page 459 13.4 Reasons for community downward mobility, Afghanistan study communities......Page 463 13.6 Infrastructure improvements in Afghanistan study communities during the study period......Page 465 13.7 Presence of local institutions and participatory development programs in the Afghanistan study communities......Page 488 A.1 Researchers and institutions involved in conflict country studies......Page 504 B.1 Countries in the conflict study stratified by income, growth, and governance......Page 514 B.2 Choosing locations within conflict study regions......Page 516 B.3 Desired distribution of households across mobility groups in all study regions......Page 517 B.4 Ladder of life from male focus group discussions in Bodolenge, Indonesia......Page 520 C.1 Data collection methods......Page 534 D.1 List of variables for community regressions......Page 538 E.1 Weights for PCA-constructed indexes......Page 542 F.3 Democratic structures in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 544 F.6 Representation of all social groups on local councils, by country, 1995 and 2005......Page 545 F.7 Representation on local councils and responsiveness of local government, by country, 1995 and 2005......Page 546 F.9 Trends in religious and ethnic polarization in conflict and nonconflict communities, by country, 2005......Page 547 F.11 Government responsiveness and community safety in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 548 F.12 Government responsiveness and trends in service provision, 1995–2005, in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 549 F.13 Democratic governance by conflict rating and country income level, 1995 and 2005......Page 550 F.15 Mean community MOP by presence and representativeness of village council 10 years ago, conflict countries only......Page 552 F.16 Representativeness of village council, social divisiveness, and number of local groups/associations in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 553 F.18 Trends in participation and access to associations and networks in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 554 F.19 Actors involved in mediating disputes as reported by movers and chronic poor, in conflict and nonconflict communities......Page 555 F.20 Actors involved in mediating disputes as reported by movers and chronic poor, by country......Page 556 F.22 MOP and number of local groups/associations by type, in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 557 F.24 Sources of income for movers in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 558 F.26 Infrastructure in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 559 F.27 Infrastructure by MOP rating in conflict and nonconflict communities, 1995 and 2005......Page 560 This study focuses on people who moved out of poverty during the decade from 1995 to 2005 in rural areas of four Indian states: Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. It also considers people who have fallen into poverty, those who have remained poor, and some who have never been poor but who live alongside poor people in the same communities. The author started by setting aside official and expert opinions, ideologies of the right and left, and, to the extent possible, the beliefs and assumptions of the rich and the middle class, including the own preconceived notions. The study is unique in four ways. First, it examines changes in poverty status of the same households over time. Most poverty studies are snapshots of the poor taken at a particular point in time, with extrapolations made by comparing them with the rich at that same point in time. In the study, the author focus on understanding the dynamics of change by asking individuals to recall their life stories, particularly what happened to them over the past decade? Second, most poverty studies are conducted at the national, state, or district level. The author focuses on local communities, mainly villages, as the unit within which individuals and households are embedded. There is much variation between villages, even within a district, and our sampling strategy enables us to examine these community-level differences. Third, the author relies primarily on nonstandardized data collection methods, including life stories and discussion groups. The author complement these with data the author gather using household and community-level questionnaires. Finally, since the author deliberately adopted an open-ended approach, the author uses inductive methods to systematically aggregate data from life stories and individual discussions over 50,000 pages of notes. The author started with broad questions rather than a particular conceptual framework, but the author did impose a framework after six months of inductive data analyses, before starting the quantitative data analyses The global moving out of poverty study is unique in several respects. It is one of the few large-scale comparative research efforts to focus on mobility out of poverty rather than on poverty alone. The study draws together the experiences of poor women and men who have managed to move out of poverty over time and the processes and local institutions that have helped or hindered their efforts. It is also the first time that a World Bank report draws on people's own understanding of freedom, democracy, equality, empowerment, and aspirations-and how these affect poor people in different growth, social, and political contexts. By giving primacy to people's own experiences and how they define poverty, the study provides several new insights to develop more effective strategies to reduce poverty. The study finds that poor people take lots of initiative, in many cases even more than those who are better off. There are millions and millions of tiny poor entrepreneurs. The investment climate of these tiny entrepreneurs has not been a centerpiece of poverty strategies. Too often, poor people do not face a level playing field. Despite the micro credit revolution, poor people remain outside of most financial services; and large lenders remain reluctant to lend to micro enterprises and micro entrepreneurs. New institutional models and financial instruments are needed to serve poor people's financial needs and give them the capital they need to expand their businesses and connect to markets This volume brings together multidisciplinary perspectives on poor people's mobility, a dynamic approach that hopefully will add to the reader's understanding of how and why people move into and out of poverty. The chapters draw on the latest longitudinal micro data to present a moving picture of poverty that is rather different from what one can see in single snapshots, the staple of traditional poverty analysis. The book is also important because the contributors' distinct disciplinary perspectives demonstrate clearly why it is critical to draw on diverse information to improve the reader's understanding about how to reduce poverty. The economic findings reinforce what has been known for some time: fast economic growth underpins poverty reduction, but the speed of declines in poverty is greatly affected by social and political factors. The economic panels also show that the people mired in chronic poverty around the world are actually fewer in number than the people moving in and out of poverty. Static studies do not capture this dynamic quality of poverty and vulnerability. Of particular interest are the chapters clarifying interactions between the local social, political, and economic factors that underlie persistent poverty, vulnerability, and inequality. They point to the need to draw from different disciplines as we turn to the task of reaching the bottom poor trapped in poverty and those churning in and out of poverty “There is no peace with hunger. Only promises and promises and no fulfillment. If there is no job, there is no peace. If there is nothing to cook in the pot, there is no peace.” - Oscar, a 57-year-old man, El GorriÃ3n, Colombia “They want to construct their houses near the road, and they cannot do that if they do not have peace with their enemies. So peace and the road have developed a symbiotic relation. One cannot live without the other. . . .” - A community leader from a conflict-affected community on the island of Mindanao, Philippines Most conflict studies focus on the national level, but this volume focuses on the community level. It explores how communities experience and recover from violent conflict, and the surprising opportunities that can emerge for poor people to move out of poverty in these harsh contexts. 'Rising from the Ashes of Conflict' reveals how poor people’s mobility is shaped by local democracy, people’s associations, aid strategies, and the local economic environment in over 100 communities in seven conflict-affected countries, including Afghanistan. The findings suggest the need to rethink postconflict development assistance. This is the fourth volume in a series derived from the Moving Out of Poverty study, which explores mobility from the perspectives of poor people in more than 500 communities across 15 countries.

Lifting people out of poverty is one of the great challenges facing the international community today. It has become still more daunting in the context of the global financial crisis, which has severe implications for the poorest people in the world. Almost 1.4 billion people in developing countries live in poverty, according to recent estimates by the World Bank, and a significant part of this population lives in chronic poverty. This is the fourth in a series of volumes emerging from the global moving out of poverty study, which explores mobility from the perspectives of poor people who have moved out of poverty in more than 500 communities across 15 countries. The research on conflict-affected countries was managed by the global development network in partnership with the World Bank. This volume examines the social, political, and economic institutions facing poor people in post-conflict environments, where lives have been turned upside down by violence and instability. Based on original evidence from over a hundred communities in seven countries, the study documents the strategies that poor people use to cope with and move out of poverty, and it concludes with important policy recommendations.