Mountains in the Greenhouse : Climate Change and the Mountains of the Western U.S.A.

This book is written for general readers with an interest in science, and offers the tools and ideas for understanding how climate change will affect mountains of the American West. A major goal of the book is to provide material that will not become quickly outdated, and it does so by conveying its topics through constants in ecological science that will remain unchanged and scientifically sound. The book is timely in its potential to be a long-term contribution, and is designed to inform the public about climate change in mountains accessibly and intelligibly. The major themes of the book include: 1) mountains of the American West as natural experiments that can distinguish the effects of climate change because they have been relatively free from human-caused changes, 2) mountains as regions with unique sensitivities that may change more rapidly than the Earth as a whole and foreshadow the nature and magnitude of change elsewhere, and 3) different interacting components of ecosystems in the face of a changing climate, including forest growth and mortality, ecological disturbance, and mountain hydrology. Readers will learn how these changes and interactions in mountains illuminate the complexity of ecological changes in other contexts around the world. Preface 6 Acknowledgments 8 Contents 9 Chapter 1: Introduction: What Persists, What Changes 14 Why These Mountains? 15 Where Are We Going? 17 What Doesn’t Change in What Changes 18 Ice or Water, Snow or Rain 19 Evolution 19 Movement 19 Interactions 20 Concepts and Terms You Should Know 20 Variable 20 Parameter 20 Correlation 21 Feedback 21 Gradient 22 Succession 22 Disturbance 22 Treeline 22 Rain Shadow 23 Climatic Envelope 23 Connectivity 23 Limiting Factor 24 Scale 24 Uncertainty 25 Stationarity 26 Detection and Attribution 26 Chapter 2: The Mountains 28 The Cascade Range: America’s Alps 30 The Sierra Nevada: The Range of Light 35 The Rocky Mountains: The Continental Divide 40 The Pacific Coast Ranges 45 The Olympic Mountains 45 Siskiyou-Klamath-Trinity Mountains 46 Transverse and Peninsular Ranges 49 The Basin Ranges 51 The Sky Islands 53 Western Mountain Vulnerabilities 54 Vegetation 54 Glaciers, Snowpack, and Hydrology 55 Biogeochemistry 55 Wildlife 56 Wilderness Character 56 Chapter 3: It’s Getting Warm Down Here 58 What Do We Know About Climate Change? 59 How Do We Know It? 62 How Well Do We Know It? 67 How Will It Affect the Western Mountains? 70 The Cascade Range and the Pacific Coast Ranges (to the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 74 The Northern Rocky Mountains 74 The Sierra Nevada 74 The Pacific Coast Ranges (South of the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 74 The Southern and Central Rocky Mountains 75 The Sky Islands and the Basin Ranges 75 Chapter 4: Water Towers of the West 76 The Magic Line: Snow or Rain, Frozen or Melted 79 Glaciers: A Pure Signal of a Warming Climate? 82 Changes in Mountain Hydrology 87 Eco-hydrological Models: How Can We Use Them for Climate-Change Projections? 89 What Do We Expect for the Western Mountains? 93 Chapter 5: Trees, Forests, and Carbon 95 Forest Biology and Ecology: What Persists and What Changes 96 Forest Succession 103 Dispersal: Keeping Up? 105 Carbon: Source or Sink? 109 Feedbacks to Climate Change 111 Forests on the Brink? An Example of Detection and Attribution 113 Forest Models: How Can We Use Them for Climate-Change Projections? 116 What Do We Expect for the Western Mountains? 118 The Cascade Range and the Pacific Coast Ranges (to the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 118 The Northern Rocky Mountains 119 The Sierra Nevada 119 The Pacific Coast Ranges (South of the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 119 The Southern and Central Rocky Mountains 119 The Sky Islands and the Basin Ranges 120 Chapter 6: Ecological Disturbance 121 What Is a Disturbance? 122 Fire Regimes in the Western Mountains 122 Gradients of Fire Frequency and Severity at Different Scales 124 Smoke and Regional Haze 126 Wildfire and Climate: How We Know What We Know 129 Sediment Charcoal 129 Fire-Scarred Trees and Stand Reconstructions 130 Native American Burning: Confounding the Inference? 132 The Observational Record 133 Bark Beetles and Other “Winners”, and Interactions 134 Disturbance Interactions 137 Feedbacks to Climate 139 Avalanches and Landslides 140 Windstorms 142 Disturbance and Succession in a Changing Climate 143 Adaptations to Fire: “Strategies” for Staying in the Evolutionary Game 143 Regeneration: Enabled but Vulnerable 146 Fire-Induced Changes in Treeline, No Simple Fate 146 Forests on the Brink? (Revisited) 147 “Climate-Change” Fires: Example (2) of Detection and Attribution 148 Landscape Disturbance Models: How Can We Use Them for Climate-Change Projections? 149 What Do We Expect for the Western Mountains? 152 The Cascade Range and the Pacific Coast Ranges (to the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 153 The Northern Rocky Mountains 153 The Sierra Nevada 154 The Pacific Coast Ranges (South of the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 154 The Southern and Central Rocky Mountains 155 The Sky Islands and the Basin Ranges 155 Chapter 7: Creatures Great and Small 156 Historical Effects of Humans on Western Wildlife 157 Keystone Species 159 Home Range, Migration, Dispersal 159 Habitat Quality, Refugia, and Connectivity 160 Generalists and Specialists 162 Landscape Changes that Matter 163 Loss of Refugia 163 Widespread Loss of a Type of Vegetation 163 Rising Stream Temperatures 163 Changing Patch Structures 164 Some Examples 165 Mostly Climate 165 Mostly Habitat Loss 167 Habitat Loss and Climate 168 The Most Sensitive Groups: Amphibians and Reptiles 172 Some Winners 172 Wildlife Population Models: How Can We Use Them for Climate-Change Projections? 173 What Do We Expect for the Western Mountains? 174 The Cascade Range and the Pacific Coast Ranges (to the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 174 The Northern Rocky Mountains 175 The Sierra Nevada 175 The Pacific Coast Ranges (South of the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 176 The Southern and Central Rocky Mountains 177 The Sky Islands and the Basin Ranges 177 Chapter 8: Extremes, Thresholds, Vulnerabilities 178 Extremes 179 Ecological Thresholds 181 Hydroclimate 183 Forests and Trees 183 Disturbance (Wildfire and Insect Outbreaks) 184 Wildlife 184 How Can We Anticipate Change? 185 Field-Based Knowledge 186 Much More About Models 188 Abstraction and Complexity 190 Interactions 192 Limiting Factors 193 The Problems that Won’t Go Away 194 Vulnerable Landscapes: Where in the Western Mountains? 195 Warming and Drying 195 Reduced or No Capacitance 195 Ecological Disturbance 196 Crossed Thresholds 196 Changes to Iconic Landscapes 196 The Cascade Range and the Pacific Coast Ranges (to the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 196 The Northern Rocky Mountains 197 The Sierra Nevada 198 The Pacific Coast Ranges (South of the Klamath and Trinity Mountains) 199 The Southern and Central Rocky Mountains 199 The Sky Islands and the Basin Ranges 201 Chapter 9: Mountains and People in a Warming World 203 Ecosystem Services 203 Mitigation, Adaptation, Management 208 The Work of Adaptation 210 Identify Resources at Risk 210 Where Do We Want to End Up? 210 What Are Our Options? 211 Example, from the Northern Rocky Mountains 211 What Resources are at Risk? 212 Where Do We Want to End Up? 212 What Are Our Options? 213 Surprises 214 “Anti-fragile” Management 216 Whither Wildness? 217 Clean Air and Superb Visibility 218 Remoteness 219 Danger (or the Need for Self-Reliance) 219 No Management, Development, or Resource Extraction 220 Big Fierce Animals 221 Topography 222 “Natural Wonders” 222 The Grand Canyon 223 Yosemite Valley (and the Rest of the Park) 223 Utah Red Rock Wilderness 224 The Olympic Rainforest 225 Yellowstone (and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE)) 225 Mt. Rainier and Cascade Volcanoes 226 Alpine Meadows 226 What Next for those Who Love the Western Mountains? 227 Mitigation 227 Adaptation 228 Education 228 Experience 228 Glossary 230 Index 239 Front Matter ....Pages i-xv Introduction: What Persists, What Changes (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 1-14 The Mountains (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 15-44 It’s Getting Warm Down Here (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 45-62 Water Towers of the West (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 63-81 Trees, Forests, and Carbon (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 83-108 Ecological Disturbance (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 109-143 Creatures Great and Small (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 145-166 Extremes, Thresholds, Vulnerabilities (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 167-191 Mountains and People in a Warming World (Donald McKenzie)....Pages 193-219 Back Matter ....Pages 221-235