Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change

This book deals with recent advances in our understanding and prediction of tropical cyclogenesis, intensification and movement as well as landfall processes like heavy rainfall, gale wind and storm surge based on the latest observational and numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling platforms. It also includes tropical cyclone (TC) management issues like early warning systems, recent high impact TC events, disaster preparedness, assessment of risk and vulnerability including construction, archiving and retrieval of the best tracking and historical data sets, policy decision etc., in view of recent findings on climate change aspects and their impact on TC activity. The chapters are authored by leading experts, both from research and operational environments. This book is relevant to cyclone forecasters and researchers, managers, policy makers, graduate and undergraduate students. It intends to stimulate thinking and hence further research in the field of TCs and climate change, especially over the Indian Ocean region and provides high-quality reference materials for all the users mentioned above for the management of TCs over this region. Front Matter....Pages i-xiv Front Matter....Pages 1-1 Construction and Quality of Best Tracks Parameters for Study of Climate Change Impact on Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during Satellite Era....Pages 3-17 "Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones" International Initiative – Progress since the First International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change....Pages 18-32 Climate Change in Tropical Cyclones and Monsoon Depressions of North Indian Ocean....Pages 33-39 Mechanism of the Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes due to Global Warming....Pages 40-49 Recent Research at GFDL on Surface Temperature Trends and Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Indian Ocean Region....Pages 50-62 Front Matter....Pages 63-63 Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Indian Ocean Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM....Pages 65-71 Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Indian Ocean in the Warmer Climate....Pages 72-80 An Analysis of Environmental Dynamical Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity over the Bay of Bengal during 1981-2010....Pages 81-88 Analysis of Cyclone Tracks of North Indian Ocean Using Cluster Analysis....Pages 89-96 Characteristics of Cyclogenesis over the Indian Region during 1891-2011 with Special Emphasis on Bay of Bengal vis-à-vis Arabian Sea....Pages 97-111 Front Matter....Pages 113-113 Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones Using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System....Pages 115-122 Prospects for Improving the Operational Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Southern Hemisphere....Pages 123-136 Extended Range Tropical Cyclone Predictions for East Coast of India....Pages 137-148 Status and Plans for Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Warning Systems in the North Indian Ocean Region....Pages 149-168 Advancing Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Using Aircraft Observations....Pages 169-191 Estimation of Centre and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean Using Microwave Imageries....Pages 192-202 Multi-model Ensemble Based Extended Range Forecast of Tropical Cyclogenesis over the North Indian Ocean....Pages 203-216 Front Matter....Pages 217-217 Improvement in Track and Intensity Prediction of Indian Seas Tropical Cyclones with Vortex Assimilation....Pages 219-229 NWP Forecast Guidance during Phet at Oman Meteorological Service....Pages 230-235 Impact of Variational Data Assimilation for Simulating Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal Using WRF-ARW....Pages 236-245 Front Matter....Pages 217-217 Improved Track and Intensity Predictions Using Cyclone Bogusing and Regional Assimilation....Pages 246-254 Role of Surface Roughness Length on Simulation of Cyclone Aila....Pages 255-262 Simulation of Cyclone ‘Aila-2009’ by Using WRF-ARW Model and Numerical Storm Surge Model....Pages 263-273 Mesoscale Modelling for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting over the North Indian Ocean....Pages 274-286 Real-Time Prediction of the Tropical Cyclogenesis Location over Bay of Bengal Using Global Forecast System (GFS)....Pages 287-299 Assimilation of Doppler Weather Radar Data in WRF Model for Numerical Simulation of Structure of Cyclone Aila (2009) of the Bay of Bengal at the Time of Landfall....Pages 300-308 Simulation of Pre-monsoon Cyclones of Two Contrasting Monsoon Years Using Mesoscale Model WRF (ARW)....Pages 309-318 Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Simulation of Arabian Sea Cyclone....Pages 319-336 Front Matter....Pages 337-351 Storm Surge Inundation in South Asia under Climate Change Scenarios....Pages 353-353 Inundation Risk Assessment for Nagapatinam Coast, Tamil Nadu, Southeast Coast of India....Pages 355-363 Understanding the Properties of Cyclonic Storm ‘Aila’Using NWP Technique....Pages 364-373 Impact of Radiance Data Assimilation on Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Thane Using WRF-3DVAR Modelling System....Pages 374-384 Retrieval of Atmospheric Temperature Profiles from AMSU-A Measurement Using Artificial Neural Network and Its Applications for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity for ‘Gonu’ and ‘Nargis’....Pages 385-395 Characteristic Features of Heavy Rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan States of India due to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over the Arabian Sea (31 May to 07 June 2010)....Pages 396-411 Back Matter....Pages 412-421 ....Pages 423-428