Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States : Precision, Uncertainty, and Politics

This book, by Michael J. Brogan, examines government budgeting through the lens of public budget forecast errors. In examining this aspect of the budgetary process, Brogan helps readers understand levels of political and financial risk that policymakers are willing to accept in estimating the likelihood of accurate budget projections. This title is noteworthy in its innovative, accessible approach to examining the budget process through an analysis of forecast errors. Unlike most public budgeting books, which focus primarily on the technical aspects of budgeting or on the politics of the budget process, this book bridges the technical and political aspects of budgeting, thereby providing a more comprehensive analysis of contemporary issues and research in public budgetary matters. In light of the current financial crisis in the United States, this book is crucial for providing readers with a comprehensive review of the limits of budget projections and how political forces shape the forecasting process. Throughout the text, readers are presented with relevant state-specific mini cases. The mini cases highlight some of the difficulties in projecting future revenue and spending patterns, as well as the political conflict that can ensue. The empirical findings, mini cases, and arguments presented throughout this book are intended to empower readers, giving them the expertise needed to better understand how uncertainty in public budget forecasts affects the budget process. Ultimately, this knowledge can help citizens connect the financial management of a state with its governing patterns. In Light Of The Current Financial Crisis In The United States, Modern Budget Forecasting In The American States Is Crucial For Providing Readers With A Comprehensive Review Of The Limits Of Budget Projections And How Political Forces Shape The Forecasting Process. Throughout The Text, Readers Are Presented With Relevant State-specific Mini Cases, Which Highlight Some Of The Difficulties In Projecting Future Revenue And Spending Patterns, As Well As The Political Conflict That Can Ensue. The Empirical Findings, Mini Cases, And Arguments Presented Throughout This Book Are Intended To Empower Readers, Giving Them The Expertise Needed To Better Understand How Uncertainty In Public Budget Forecasts Affects The Budget Process. Ultimately, This Knowledge Can Help Citizens Connect The Financial Management Of A State With Its Governing Patterns. -- Back Cover. Introduction To The Public Budgeting Forecast Process -- The Process And Politics Of Generating Budget Forecast Errors -- Inter-temporal Variation, Fiscal Uncertainty And State-level Long-term Revenue Budget Forecasts Errors -- Projecting Expenditures : Revenue Uncertainty, Public Choices, Political Institutions, Elections And Forecast Errors -- Interpreting Budget Forecast Errors : Fiscal Shirking, Financial Uncertainty And Public Opinion -- The Financial Consequences Of State-level Budget Forecast Errors -- The Electoral Consequences Of Budget Forecast Errors -- Budget Forecasting In The States : Reforms, Institutions, Politics And Uncertainty. Michael J. Brogan. Includes Bibliographical References (pages 161-174) And Index. Michael J. Brogan's Modern Budget Forecasting in the American States: Precision, Uncertainty, and Politics examines government budgeting through the analysis of budget forecast errors. This book is innovative in its ability to connect the technical aspects of budgeting with the politics of the budget process and offers an understanding of the budgeting process in light of the impact of the Great Recession on states' finances