Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe: European Competitiveness and Global Strategies (Advances in Spatial Science)

Tackling the question of what the European territory will look like over the next fifteen years, this volume provides quali-quantitative territorial scenarios for the enlarged Europe, under different assumptions on future globalisation strategies of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and East and West European countries. The approach is as neutral as possible vis-� -vis the results, leading to a new forecasting model, the MASST model, built by the authors, to produce the tendencies and behavioural paths of regional GDP and population growth in each individual European region under alternative assumptions on the competitiveness strategies of different blocks of countries. The results are accompanied by strong policy messages intended to encourage long-term strategic thinking among a wide range of actors, scientists and policy makers in response to the risks and opportunities that the European territory will face. Content: Front Matter....Pages i-xvi From Forecasts to Quantitative Foresights: Territorial Scenarios for an Enlarged Europe....Pages 1-10 Front Matter....Pages 11-11 Space and Theoretical Approaches to Regional Growth....Pages 13-31 Regional Competitiveness: Towards a Concept of Territorial Capital....Pages 33-47 Space and Empirical Approaches to Regional Growth....Pages 49-67 National and Regional Econometric Models....Pages 69-82 Front Matter....Pages 83-83 The MASST Model: A Generative Forecasting Model of Regional Growth....Pages 85-98 The Estimation Procedure: Data and Results....Pages 99-121 The Simulation Procedure: The Algorithm, the Target Variables and the Stability of the Model....Pages 123-152 Front Matter....Pages 153-153 Driving Forces of Change: The Baseline Scenario....Pages 155-178 Global Challenges and European Strategies: Alternative Scenarios....Pages 179-209 Territorial Images of the Future: The Quantitative Foresights Results....Pages 211-282 Towards a Conclusion: Regional and Territorial Policy Recommendations....Pages 283-306 Back Matter....Pages 307-321 The aim of this book is to tackle the question of what the European territory will look like over the next fifteen years by providing quali-quantitative territorial scenarios for the enlarged Europe, under different assumptions on future globalisation strategies of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and East and West European countries. The approach is as neutral as possible vis-à-vis the results, leaving to a new forecasting model, the MASST model, built by the authors, to produce the tendencies and behavioural paths of regional GDP and population growth in each individual European region under alternative assumptions on the competitiveness strategies of different blocks of countries. The results are accompanied by strong policy messages intended to encourage long-term strategic thinking among a wide range of actors, scientists and policy makers in response to the risks and opportunities that the European territory will face.