Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals (Monographs in Population Biology Book 63)

Ecologists now recognize that the dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems are strongly affected by adaptive individual behaviors. Yet until now, we have lacked effective and flexible methods for modeling such dynamics. Traditional ecological models become impractical with the inclusion of behavior, and the optimization approaches of behavioral ecology cannot be used when future conditions are unpredictable due to feedbacks from the behavior of other individuals. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to state- and prediction-based theory, or SPT, a powerful new approach to modeling trade-off behaviors in contexts such as individual-based population models where feedbacks and variability make optimization impossible. __Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals__ features a wealth of examples that range from highly simplified behavior models to complex population models in which individuals make adaptive trade-off decisions about habitat and activity selection in highly heterogeneous environments. Steven Railsback and Bret Harvey explain how SPT builds on key concepts from the state-based dynamic modeling theory of behavioral ecology, and how it combines explicit predictions of future conditions with approximations of a fitness measure to represent how individuals make good—not optimal—decisions that they revise as conditions change. The resulting models are realistic, testable, adaptable, and invaluable for answering fundamental questions in ecology and forecasting ecological outcomes of real-world scenarios. Cover Title Copyright Dedication Contents Preface Acknowledgments 1. Adaptive Individuals and Population Ecology 1.1 Adaptive Trade-Off Behavior and Ecology 1.2 Modeling Systems of Adaptive Individuals 1.3 Adaptive Behavior in Individual-Based Models 1.4 Adaptive Behavior, Physiology, and Neurobiology 1.5 What We Need to Link Behavioral and Population Ecology: Across-Level Theory 1.6 State-and Prediction-Based Theory (SPT) 1.7 Monograph Objectives and Overview 2. Case Study: Modeling Trout Population Response to River Management 2.1 Introduction and Model Purpose 2.2 Adaptive Behavior in the Trout Model: Habitat Selection 2.3 A Second Adaptive Behavior: Activity Selection 2.4 Conclusions 3. Introduction to State- and Prediction-Based Theory 3.1 What Is SPT? 3.2 Five Steps for Implementing SPT 3.3 A Look Ahead 4. A First Example: Forager Patch Selection 4.1 Objectives 4.2 The Model 4.3 Results and Comparison of SPT to Dynamic State Variable Modeling 4.4 Version 2: Foraging with Competition 4.5 Version 3: Continuous Starvation Risk 4.6 Conclusions 5. A Second Example: Vertical Migration and Reproductive Effort in Daphnia 5.1 Objectives 5.2 The Model 5.3 SPT Version 1: Expected Future Reproduction with Current Growth and Survival 5.4 SPT Version 2: Predicted Offspring 5.5 SPT Version 3: Diurnal Prediction 5.6 Prediction Complexity and Fitness: Population Simulations 5.7 Conclusions 6. Example Three: Temporal Patterns in Limpet Foraging 6.1 Background and Objectives 6.2 The DSVM Model of Limpet Foraging 6.3 The Model 6.4 SPT Version 1: Maximizing Short-Term Expected Energy Reserves 6.5 SPT Version 2: Maximizing Mean Expected Energy Reserves until Day’s End 6.6 Conclusions 7. Example Four: Facultative Anadromy in Salmonid Fishes 7.1 Introduction and Objectives 7.2 The DSVM Model 7.3 The IBM Using SPT 7.4 SPT Model Results and Applications 8. Guidance for Using State- and Prediction-Based Theory 8.1 Introduction and Objectives 8.2 Step 1: Defining the Decision That SPT Models 8.3 Step 2: Selecting Fitness Measures and Time Horizons 8.4 Step 3: Modeling Prediction of Environmental Conditions and Fitness Elements 8.4.1 General Guidance on Modeling Prediction 8.4.2 Predicting Growth and Size 8.4.3 Predicting Starvation Risk 8.4.4 Predicting Predation and Other Risks 8.4.5 Predicting Reproductive Success 8.5 Step 4: Selecting a Decision Algorithm 8.6 Step 5: Implementing and Testing the Theory 8.7 Conclusions 9. Testing and Refining State- and Prediction-Based Theory 9.1 Introduction and Objectives 9.2 The Pattern-Oriented Theory Development Cycle 9.3 Examples of Theory Development and Testing 9.3.1 Literature Examples 9.3.2 Trout Habitat Selection 9.3.3 Activity Selection in Trout 9.3.4 Foraging Habitat Selection in Songbirds 9.4 Conclusions 10. Building Model Credibility 10.1 Introduction and Objectives 10.2 Issues in “Validation” of Individual-Based Population Models 10.3 Strategies for Building Credibility 10.4 Lessons Learned in Field, Laboratory, and Simulation Experiments 10.5 Conclusions 11. Empirical Research on Populations of Adaptive Individuals 11.1 Introduction and Objectives 11.2 Benefits of Models for Field Studies 11.3 Modeling Phase 1: Formulate the Question 11.4 Modeling Phase 2: Assemble Hypotheses 11.5 Modeling Phase 3: Choose Model Structure 11.6 Modeling Phase 5: Analyze the Model 11.7 Conclusions 12. Conclusions and Outlook 12.1 Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals 12.2 Key Characteristics of the Approach 12.3 Conclusions from Example Models 12.4 Outlook References Index "This book offers a new theory for modeling how organisms make tradeoff decisions and how these decisions affect both individuals and populations. Tradeoff decisions (or behaviors) are those that are optimize survival and include behaviors like foraging and reproduction. Existing theories have not painted a complete picture of tradeoff decisions because they only observe how the decisions of an individual affect them rather than how individuals impact, and are impacted by, the behavior of their communities. The authors' theory-which they call state and prediction based theory-uses individual-based models since these models show the complex ways that organisms relate to their environment. The authors' broader approach, one that integrates behavior and population dynamics, allows ecologists to see how individuals make adaptive tradeoff decisions. In simpler terms, this theory does not assume, as the previous models do, that future conditions are fixed, known, and unaffected by the behavior of others. Instead, the authors assume individuals make decisions like people do, which is by forecasting future conditions, using approximation to make good decisions, and updating their choices as conditions change"-- Provided by publisher Ecologists now recognize that the dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems are strongly affected by adaptive individual behaviours. Yet until now, we have lacked effective and flexible methods for modelling such dynamics. Traditional ecological models become impractical with the inclusion of behaviour, and the optimization approaches of behavioural ecology cannot be used when future conditions are unpredictable due to feedbacks from the behaviour of other individuals. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to state- and prediction-based theory, or SPT, a powerful new approach to modelling trade-off behaviours in contexts such as individual-based population models where feedbacks and variability make optimization impossible