Modeling and Analysis of Conventional Defense in Europe : Assessment of Improvement Options

This book presents a collection of contributions to a workshop on "Long-teY'fr/ Development of NATO's Conventional Forrward Defense" to which the GERMAN STRATEGY FORUM (DSF*{raquo} had invited some 50 systems analysts and defense experts of the United States, the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany and the SHAPE Technical Centre. Held in Bonn from 2 to 4 December 1984, this workshop was to provide a forum for the dis cussion, at a non-political expert level and in the light of available analysis results, of proposals for the improvement of NATO's conventional defense capabilities. In addition, it aimed at arriving at some recommenda tions as to which of these proposals deserve to be studied further and what methodological deficiencies must be alleviated and information gaps closed for an adequate assessment. The idea to organize this workshop has been discussed ever since 1980 with several defense systems analysts in the US and the UK who shared the opinion that, with a view to the immense global build-up of the Soviet threat on one hand and the stringency of defense resources in most NATO countries on the other, there is no reason that could permit us to dismiss any proposal promising improvement without careful study Front Matter....Pages i-viii Rationale and Structure of the Workshop on ‘Long-Term Development of NATO’s Conventional Forward Defense’....Pages 1-4 Front Matter....Pages ins1-ins1 The Nuclear Relationship: Conventional Defense and Nuclear Posture in the Strategy of Deterrence....Pages 5-14 Criteria for the Evaluation of Conventional Forces and Quantification....Pages 15-24 Front Matter....Pages ins3-ins3 Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning....Pages 25-54 Assessing Alternative Strategic Concepts....Pages 55-58 System Dynamics as a Conceptual Framework for Long-Term Defence Planning Initiatives....Pages 59-81 Front Matter....Pages ins5-ins5 Analyzing Alternative Concepts for the Defense of NATO....Pages 83-96 On Reactive Defense Options - A Comparative Systems Analysis of Alternatives for the Initial Defense Against the First Strategic Echelon Of The Warsaw Pact in Cental Europe....Pages 97-139 Some Long-Term Trends in Force Structuring....Pages 141-166 Front Matter....Pages ins7-ins7 MILITARY RATIONALE AND OPERATIONAL ROBUSTNESS: The Impact of Emerging Technology and Experimental Tactics on the Future of Infantry....Pages 167-192 Politico-Military Assessment....Pages 193-195 Technology Implications....Pages 197-199 Economic Implications, Cost and Manpower....Pages 201-204 Findings of the Assessment Group on Modeling and Methodology....Pages 205-207 Back Matter....Pages 209-215