Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices : Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean

This book addresses the need of oil-importing countries to mitigate vulnerability to oil price volatility. It offers financial instruments to manage price risk, complemented by structural measures designed to reduce oil consumption. The unprecedented rise in world oil prices over the past decade has created greater economic uncertainty and higher risk introduced by oil price volatility. Countries with a high proportion of oil in their primary energy supply are especially vulnerable. At both macro and micro levels, such countries may suffer serious effects, ranging from short-term to permanent changes that hinder potential growth and international competitiveness. Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices: Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean offers an assessment of how these countries can better cope with high and volatile oil prices. The book first analyzes the economic effects of high and volatile prices on oil-importing countries, with emphasis on power sector experience in Latin America and the Caribbean. Second, it proposes complementary measures that can be applied using a multi-horizon strategy. To manage price risk, various physical and financial hedging tools are available to governments of oil-importing countries. To reduce oil dependence over the longer term, the book proposes implementing three structural measures: a more diversified electricity generation matrix, better energy efficiency in electricity production and use, and regional integration with more diversified power systems. Finally, the book quantifies some of the macro- and micro-level benefits that could result from implementing these measures. In the subregions examined, significant savings in the cost of fuel purchases-up to 5 percent of gross domestic product-could accrue to heavily oil-dependent countries. The aggregate effect would not only be a reduction in energy expenditures. It would mean less vulnerability to the impact of high and volatile oil prices. While much of the book’s analysis refers to Central America and the Caribbean, the underlying principles of the policy recommendations can be applied to any oil-importing country seeking to mitigate vulnerability to high and volatile oil prices.

Countries heavily dependent on imported oil to power a significant portion of their electricity generation are especially vulnerable to high and volatile oil prices. In net oil-importing countries worldwide, high and volatile oil prices ripple through the power sector to numerous segments of the economy. As prices move up and down, so does the cost of electricity production, which has far-reaching effects on the economy, fiscal and trade balances, businesses, and household living standards. High and volatile oil prices affect economies at both a macro and micro level. The major direct effects at the macro level are a deteriorating trade balance, through a higher import bill, reflecting a worsening in terms of trade; and a weakening fiscal balance due to greater government transfers and subsidies to insulate movements in international energy markets. At the micro level, investment uncertainty results from the higher risk of engaging in new projects and associated development and sunk costs, which, in turn, affects policy decisions and economic growth. This study responds to the needs of policy makers and energy planners in oil-importing countries to better manage exposure to oil price risk. The study's objective is threefold. First, it analyzes the economic effects of higher and volatile prices on oil-importing countries, with emphasis on the power sector, using examples from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Second, it proposes a menu of complementary options that can be applied over multiple time frames. Several structural measures are designed to reduce oil generation and consumption, while a range of financial instruments are suggested for managing price risk in the short term. Finally, it attempts to quantify some of the macroeconomic and microeconomic benefits that could accrue from implementing such options.