Methodologies for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters (Integrated Disaster Risk Management)

This book outlines methodologies to estimate the economic impacts of natural disasters based on business surveys conducted after large disasters in Japan. By including numerous observations on business activities in past disasters and the validations of both engineering and economic models based on these data sets, this book appeals to practitioners who estimate the regional economic impacts as well as to students and young professionals in various fields who conduct disaster impact studies. The book consists of 7 chapters and includes theories and practices, which help readers to interlink the estimation methods with real-world problems. The study primarily focuses on cases in Japan, but the methods employed can be generalized and applied in other countries. Foreword to the IDRiM Book Series 6 Preface 8 Contents 10 Introduction 11 1 History 12 2 Why Do We Need to Quantify Flow Losses? 14 3 Approaches Adopted in This Booklet 16 References 19 Functional Fragility Curves for Production Capacity 21 1 Introduction 22 2 Model and Estimation Procedures 23 2.1 Formulation of FFCs 23 2.2 Setting of Damage States 24 2.3 Formulation of Likelihood Function: Multinominal Response Model 25 2.4 Confidence Interval for FFC 26 3 Model Estimation 26 3.1 Data 26 3.2 Estimation Results 26 3.3 Estimation Results for Different Industrial Sectors 28 3.4 Confidence Interval of FFCs 31 3.5 Expected Capacity Level 33 4 Summary 33 References 34 Measures for Estimating Production Capacity Losses 36 1 Introduction 36 2 Lifeline Resilience Factor 37 3 Method to Estimate Production Shocks 42 3.1 Earthquake Disaster Case 42 3.2 Flood Disaster Case 45 4 Application to Earthquake and Flood Disasters 49 4.1 The Great East Japan Earthquake 49 4.2 Flood Disaster Case 54 5 Summary 56 References 57 SCGE Models to Assess Higher-Order Impacts of Production Capacity Losses 59 1 Introduction 59 2 Literature Review 60 3 Basic Model and Key Parameters 61 4 Earthquake Disasters 67 4.1 Data 67 4.2 How to Reflect the PCLR into an SCGE Model 69 4.3 Estimation Results 72 5 Flood Disasters 74 6 Summary 76 References 78 Economic Impacts of a Nankai Megathrust Earthquake Scenario 80 1 Introduction 80 2 Hazard Information 81 3 Estimated Economic Impacts of a Nankai Trough Earthquake Scenario 82 4 Summary 87 References 90 Economic Impacts of the Transportation Network Disruption: An Extension of SCGE Model 91 1 Introduction 92 2 The Framework for Economic Loss Estimation Due to Transportation Network Damages 93 3 The SCGE Model to Assess the Interregional Spillovers of Direct Damage Through Transportation Networks 94 4 The Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake—A Case Study 96 4.1 An Overview of the Disaster and Model Parameter Settings 96 4.2 Results 97 5 Conclusions 100 References 100 Conclusions 102