Medium-term coal market report 2011: market trends and projections to 2016 (ECONOMIE)

Despite public calls in many countries for reducing reliance on coal as a primary but high-carbon energy source, global demand continues to escalate. Coal has traditionally been seen as a low-cost and price-stable source of energy, but recently coal prices have increased and become much more volatile. Moreover, while coal is viewed as a very secure energy source, infrastructure bottlenecks and weather-related events can dramatically tighten the market. This new annual IEA publication, Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2011, presents a comprehensive analysis of recent trends in coal demand, supply and trade, as well as an IEA outlook for coal market fundamentals for the coming five years. The report places a special focus on trade and infrastructure development in the key exporting countries. Given the existing uncertainties on the production capacity of China to meet its challenging coal demand growth, the book presents two scenarios for coal trade: a high and a low Chinese production outlook. This comparison highlights the massive influence of Chinese behaviour on the international coal trade. MEDIUM-TERM COAL MARKET REPORT 2011 FOREWORD ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RECENT MARKET TRENDS Summary Demand OECD demand trends Non-OECD demand trends Supply OECD supply trends Non-OECD supply trends References MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY Summary Introduction Assumptions and methodology Projection of global coal demand OECD coal demand in power generation OECD coal demand in non-power sectors Non-OECD coal demand in power generation Non-OECD coal demand in non-power sectors Regional focus: China Projection of global coal supply OECD coal supply Non-OECD coal supply RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE Summary Seaborne hard coal market 2009-2010 Price developments Cost developments Regional analysis Exporters Importers References MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS OF SEABORNE TRADE Summary Assumptions and methodology Scenario design Projections of seaborne hard coal trade Projections of seaborne thermal coal trade LPS HPS Projections of seaborne metallurgical coal trade LPS HPS References UTILISATION OF EXPORT CAPACITY AND INVESTMENTS Summary Utilisation of export capacity in 2009-2010 Utilisation of export mine capacity Utilisation of domestic transport infrastructure Utilisation of port capacity Export capacity investments 2011-2016 Port and domestic transport capacity investments Export mine capacity investments References MEDIUM-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EXPORT CAPACITY UTILISATION Summary Assumptions and methodology Projected utilisation of export capacity Regional analysis Australia South Africa Colombia Russia Indonesia United States TABLES