اندازه‌گیری رشد اقتصادی و بهره‌وری: مبانی، مدل‌های تولید KLEMS و گسترش‌ها

__Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity: Foundations, KLEMS Production Models, and Extensions__ presents new insights into the causes, mechanisms and results of growth in national and regional accounts. It demonstrates the versatility and usefulness of the KLEMS databases, which generate internationally comparable industry-level data on outputs, inputs and productivity. By rethinking economic development beyond existing measurements, the book's contributors align the measurement of growth and productivity to contemporary global challenges, addressing the need for measurements as well as the Gross Domestic Product. All contributors in this foundational volume are recognized experts in their fields, all inspired by the path-breaking research of Dale W. Jorgenson. Cover Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity: Foundations, KLEMS Production Models, and Extensions Copyright Dedication Associate Editors Contributors Introduction 1. Economic growth: a different view 1.1 The emergence of growth 1.1.1 The emergence of growth 1.2 Our approach 1.2.1 Our approach 1.3 Industry growth 1.3.1 Changing structure 1.3.2 Growth before 1947 1.3.3 Leading industries 1947–1973 1.3.4 Growth industries after 1973 1.3.5 Industry changes 1.4 Growth of demand 1.4.1 Keynes and FDR 1.4.2 Final demand 1.4.3 Growth in final demand 1.4.4 Interindustry demand 1.5 Development of consumer demand 1.5.1 Importance of consumers 1.5.2 Product innovation 1.5.3 Creating a mass market 1.6 Development of investment demand 1.6.1 Expand capacity 1.6.2 Adoption of new processes 1.6.3 Investment in mainstream industries 1.7 Different growth paths 1.7.1 Different behaviors 1.7.2 Leading industries 1.7.3 Length of the growth cycle 1.7.4 The growth path of mainstream industries 1.7.5 The path of declining industries 1.8 Sustaining economic growth 1.8.1 Maintaining demand growth 1.8.2 Supply growth in leading industries 1.8.3 Growth of production in general 1.9 Innovation and growth 1.9.1 The roles of innovation 1.9.2 The nature of product innovation 1.9.3 Innovation in production 1.9.4 Research and development 1.10 The outcome 1.10.1 Increasing incomes 1.10.2 Who gains? 1.10.3 Constant change 1.11 Our view of economic growth 1.11.1 Our view 1.11.2 Hudson–Jorgenson 1.11.3 Schumpeter 1.12 Relationship to existing theory 1.12.1 Existing growth theory 1.12.2 Growth accounting 1.12.3 Scientific theory 1.12.4 Understanding 1.13 Other countries 1.13.1 Other countries 1.14 Conclusion 1.14.1 Conclusion References 2. Expanding the conceptual foundation, scope, and relevance of the US national accounts: the intersection of theory, research ... 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Measurement without theory 2.3 Today's national accounts and economic theory 2.4 Joint evolution of theory, research, and national accounts 2.5 Conclusion and next steps References Further reading 3. Tax policy and resource allocation 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Cost of capital and effective tax rates 3.2.1 Cost of capital 3.2.2 Tax wedges and effective tax rates 3.3 Dynamic general equilibrium model of the US Economy 3.3.1 Consumer behavior 3.3.2 Producer behavior 3.3.3 Government 3.3.4 Rest of the world 3.3.5 Parameter values 3.4 Equilibrium of the model and solution algorithm 3.4.1 Market equilibrium 3.4.2 Dynamics of the model 3.4.3 Solution algorithm 3.5 Welfare effects of tax reform 3.5.1 Intertemporal expenditure function 3.5.2 Efficiency cost of taxation in the United States 3.5.3 Welfare effects of tax reform 3.6 Concluding remarks References 4. Sources of growth in the world economy: a comparison of G7 and E7 economies 4.1 Introduction 4.2 E7 and G7 in the world economy 4.3 Sources of growth during 2000–17: E7 versus G7 4.4 E7 economies in the global dynamics of economic catch-up: performance and drivers 4.4.1 Catch-up performance index 4.4.2 Catch-up performance during 2000–17: E7 versus G7 4.4.3 Drivers of economic catch-up 4.5 Prospects for the E7 and G7 economies in 2027: a projection exercise 4.5.1 Salient insights from projection results 4.5.2 The share of E7 and G7 economies in the world economy in 2027 4.6 Conclusion Appendix 4.A Growth decomposition framework Appendix 4.B Decomposition of the catch-up performance index Appendix 4.C Growth predicting model and key assumptions 4.C.1 Growth predicting model 4.C.2 Key assumptions 4.C.2.1 The assumptions for the base-case 4.C.2.2 The assumptions for the pessimistic scenario 4.C.2.3 The assumptions for the optimistic scenario References 5. European productivity in the digital age: evidence from EU KLEMS 5.1 Introduction 5.2 The EU KLEMS database 5.2.1 A brief history of EU KLEMS 5.2.2 Growth accounting and methodology 5.3 Industry taxonomies 5.4 Aggregate growth accounting 5.5 Growth by sector characteristics 5.6 Summary and conclusions References 6. Manufacturing productivity in India: the role of foreign sourcing of inputs and domestic capacity building 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Trends in total factor productivity growth in India 6.2.1 Trends in TFP growth at the industry level 6.2.2 Trends in TFP growth at the aggregate level, Indian manufacturing 6.3 Determinants of TFP: the role of GVC participation and equipment capital use 6.3.1 Model specification 6.3.2 Data, variables, and expected relationship with TFP 6.3.3 Regression results 6.3.4 Robustness checks 6.4 Summary and conclusion Abbreviations Annexure-I: summary Statistics for FVA (foreign value-added), equipment share, and ICT (information and communication techn ... Acknowledgments References 7. An international comparison on TFP changes in ICT industry among Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, and the United States 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Literature review 7.3 Methodology and data compilation 7.3.1 Methodology 7.3.2 Data compilation of Taiwan 7.3.2.1 Capital input 7.3.2.2 Labor input 7.3.2.3 Energy input 7.3.2.4 Intermediate input 7.3.2.5 Real value added and total output 7.3.3 Data compilation of other countries 7.4 Empirical Results 7.4.1 The growth rate of total output in ICT industries during 1981–2010 7.4.2 The growth rate of capital (K), labor (L), and intermediate input (M) in ICT industries during 1981–2010 7.4.3 The growth rate of total factor productivity during 1981–2010 7.4.4 The sources of total output growth 7.4.5 The measurement of relative total factor productivity gap 7.4.6 TFP gap, value-added ratio and R&D expense in total output value 7.4.7 An implication to the US–China trade war 7.5 Conclusion and suggestion References Website 8. Losing Steam?—An industry origin analysis of China's productivity slowdown 8.1 Introduction 8.1.1 Why haven't we learned much from the literature? 8.1.2 Toward a theoretically sound inquiry of China's productivity performance 8.1.3 Has China's productivity really slowed down? 8.2 The APPF-Domar framework of growth accounting44This section is largely based on Wu (2016). 8.3 Major data and measurement issues 8.3.1 How is the CIP database related to official statistics? 8.3.2 Gross output, intermediate inputs, and value added 8.3.3 Producer prices and the deflation approach 8.3.4 Measuring labor input 8.3.5 Measuring capital input 8.4 Industry grouping and periodization 8.4.1 Industry grouping 8.4.2 Periodization 8.5 Discussion of empirical results 8.5.1 China's growth performance estimated in the APPF framework 8.5.2 Contribution of industries to China's growth 8.5.3 Contribution of factors to China's growth 8.5.4 The industry origin of aggregate TFP growth 8.5.5 The factor reallocation effect 8.6 Concluding remarks 8.7 Appendix References 9. Growth origins and patterns in the market economy of mainland Norway, 1997–2014 9.1 Introduction 9.2 The Norwegian KLEMS database 9.3 Methodology: industry contributions to aggregate growth 9.4 Aggregate ALP growth decomposed by sources 9.5 Contributions by sector ALP 9.6 Sector contributions by capital and labor inputs 9.6.1 Other assets 9.6.2 Hardware (ITH) 9.6.3 Software (ITS) 9.6.4 R&D 9.6.5 Changes in labor composition 9.7 Contributions by sector MFP 9.8 Growth patterns in diagram 9.8.1 Harberger diagram 9.8.2 Hardware (ITH) 9.8.3 Software (ITS) 9.8.4 R&D 9.8.5 Change in labor composition 9.8.6 Multifactor productivity 9.9 Concluding remarks References 10. Progress on Australia and Russia KLEMS 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Australia KLEMS 10.2.1 Background of KLEMS development in Australia 10.2.2 KLEMS industry output and inputs 10.2.2.1 Labor input 10.2.2.2 Capital input 10.2.2.3 Intermediate inputs 10.2.2.4 Gross output 10.2.2.5 Index number choice 10.2.3 KLEMS results for Australia 10.2.3.1 Input cost shares 10.2.3.2 Contributions to output growth 10.3 Russia KLEMS 10.3.1 Background of Russia KLEMS 10.3.2 Russia KLEMS methodology 10.3.2.1 Output 10.3.2.2 SUTs: adaptation and backcast estimations 10.3.2.3 Hours worked 10.3.2.4 Labor composition 10.3.2.5 Capital 10.3.2.6 Input's shares 10.3.3 What we have learned about Russian growth from Russia KLEMS 10.3.3.1 Aggregate view 10.3.3.2 Recent developments of Russia KLEMS: GO-based growth accounting, labor composition, and double deflation 10.4 Conclusion Appendix. List of industries and composition of aggregated sectors Acknowledgment References 11. Toward a BEA-BLS integrated industry-level production account for 1947–2016 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Production Account framework 11.3 Output and intermediate inputs including energy, materials, and services 11.4 Labor input 11.4.1 Hours worked 11.4.2 Labor composition 11.5 Capital inputs 11.5.1 Estimating inventory stocks 11.5.2 Estimating land stocks 11.5.3 Historical capital rental prices 11.5.4 Estimating capital services for government 11.6 Integration adjustments 11.7 Industry-level sources of growth 11.8 The sector origins of economic growth 11.9 Conclusions and next steps Disclaimer References 12. Benchmark 2011 integrated estimates of the Japan–US price-level index for industry outputs 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Framework 12.3 Data and measurement 12.3.1 2011 Japan–US bilateral input–output table 12.3.2 Elementary-level price-level indices 12.3.3 Product-level price-level indices 12.4 Results 12.5 Conclusion Appendix: bilateral price model Producer's prices Purchaser's prices Import prices from exogenous economies Sensitivity to margin rates Disclaimer References 13. The impact of information and communications technology investment on employment in Japan and Korea 13.1 Introduction 13.2 A model of ICT investment effects on employment 13.3 Empirical results for Japan and Korea 13.3.1 Trends in wage shares and ICT capital intensity 13.3.1.1 Labor share 13.3.1.2 Capital stock 13.3.2 Estimation results of the wage share equations 13.3.2.1 Estimation results for Japan 13.3.2.2 Estimation results for Korea 13.4 Conclusion Appendix: industry classification References 14. Economic valuation of knowledge-based capital: an International comparison 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Calculating knowledge intensity: methodological approach 14.3 Statistical data: sources and coverage 14.4 Knowledge intensity estimates: aggregated results 14.4.1 Disaggregation of knowledge-based GVA by source 14.5 Knowledge intensity estimates: industry results 14.5.1 Shift-share analysis 14.6 Conclusions References 15. Measuring consumer inflation in a digital economy 15.1 Introduction and key findings 15.2 Quality change in existing product lines, truly novel products, and free products 15.2.1 Quality change in existing product lines 15.2.2 Truly novel products 15.2.3 Free products 15.3 What's the potential impact? 15.3.1 Digital replacements 15.3.2 Access and information enabling better selection of varieties 15.4 Two unorthodox points and beyond GDP 15.4.1 Hulten Paradox 15.4.2 Perceived inflation 15.4.3 “Beyond GDP” 15.5 Conclusion Annex 15.A. Weights in household consumption basket of product categories potentially affected by measurement errors in def ... Disclaimer References Further reading 16. Intangible capital, innovation, and productivity à la Jorgenson evidence from Europe and the United States 16.1 Intangible investment and capital 16.1.1 INTAN-Invest 16.1.2 Intangible capital 16.2 The sources-of-growth model with intangibles 16.2.1 Upstream/downstream framework 16.2.2 Interpreting innovation 16.2.2.1 Case 1: “competitive” innovation 16.2.2.2 Case 2: costly innovation 16.2.3 Missing intangibles and TFP 16.2.4 The productivity slowdown 16.3 Empirical analysis 16.3.1 Coverage 16.3.2 Europe and United States investment aggregates 16.3.3 Application of the SOG framework 16.3.3.1 Methods for K and L inputs 16.3.3.2 Methods for growth decompositions 16.3.4 Sources-of-growth results 16.3.5 Productivity slowdown redux 16.4 Conclusions Appendix The INTAN-Invest database Methods and sources (EU countries) Methods and sources (United States) References 17. Getting smart about phones: new price indexes and the allocation of spending between devices and services plans in Personal ... 17.1 Introduction 17.2 IDC data and smartphone characteristics 17.2.1 IDC data 17.2.2 Smartphone characteristics 17.3 Methodology for quality-adjusted price indexes1313The description of hedonic methodology in this section draws heavily from ... 17.3.1 Matched-model indexes 17.3.2 Hedonic price index methodology 17.4 Smartphone price indexes 17.4.1 Matched-model 17.4.2 Hedonic 17.5 Allocation of PCE spending between cellular devices and bundled service contracts 17.5.1 Accounting for the upfront cost of phones 17.5.2 Adjusting for subsidies (or “discounts”) on smartphones 17.5.3 Real PCE spending on phones and wireless services 17.6 Conclusion A17 Appendix Acknowledgments References 18. Accounting for growth and productivity in global value chains 18.1 Introduction 18.2 General approach and data 18.2.1 Prior contributions 18.2.2 Measuring productivity in GVCs 18.2.3 Data 18.2.4 GVCs and the measurement of intermediate input prices 18.3 Growth accounts for global value chains 18.3.1 Illustrative example 18.3.2 General patterns of productivity growth and input use in GVCs 18.4 Factor substitution bias in measuring GVC TFP 18.5 Concluding remarks References 19. Emissions accounting and carbon tax incidence in CGE models: bottom-up versus top-down 19.1 Introduction 19.2 Accounting for energy inputs in CGE models 19.2.1 Top-down and bottom-up accounting 19.2.2 Emission coefficients in IGEM 19.3 The contrast between bottom-up and top-down accounting of a carbon tax 19.3.1 Model features summary 19.3.2 The carbon policies analyzed 19.3.3 Emissions and fossil fuel impacts 19.3.4 Economic impacts 19.3.5 Welfare effects 19.4 Conclusion References 20. Analyzing carbon price policies using a general equilibrium model with household energy demand functions 20.1 Introduction 20.2 A two-stage model of household energy demand 20.2.1 Demand model theory 20.2.1.1 First stage 20.2.1.2 The second stage 20.2.1.3 Econometric method 20.2.2 Data and estimation results 20.2.2.1 Prices 20.2.2.2 Estimation results 20.3 Carbon policy assessment methodology 20.3.1 Consumption demand 20.3.1.1 Cross-section versus time-series estimates of elasticities and projections 20.3.1.2 Consumption subtiers and commodity classification 20.3.1.3 Welfare 20.3.2 Economic-energy model 20.3.3 Implementing CO2 policies in economic model 20.4 The impact of a carbon tax 20.4.1 Distributional effects 20.4.2 The 65% intensity reduction case 20.5 Conclusion Appendix. Economic-energy growth model of China References 21. GDP and social welfare: an assessment using regional data11I would like to thank Mun Ho and Barbara Fraumeni for helpful co ... 21.1 Introduction 21.2 Regional Gross Domestic Product as a welfare measure 21.3 Individual welfare, consumption, and prices 21.3.1 Measuring consumption 21.3.2 Household-specific prices 21.4 The measurement of social welfare 21.5 Regional welfare in the United States 21.5.1 PCE consumption versus GDP-based measures 21.5.2 Consumption measurement in the Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CEX) 21.5.3 Regional price effects 21.5.4 Distributional effects 21.6 Summary and conclusions References 22. Accumulation of human and market capital in the United States, 1975–2012: an analysis by gender 22.1 Part I: methodology 22.1.1 Human capital 22.1.2 National accounts 22.2 Part II: underlying trends by gender 22.3 Part III: national level accounts 22.4 Part IV: human capital components by gender 22.5 Part V: conclusion References Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Back Cover Measuring Economic Growth and Productivity: Foundations, KLEMS Production Models, and Extensions presents new insights into the causes, mechanisms and results of growth in national and regional accounts. It demonstrates the versatility and usefulness of the KLEMS databases, which generate internationally comparable industry-level data on outputs, inputs and productivity. By rethinking economic development beyond existing measurements, the book's contributors align the measurement of growth and productivity to contemporary global challenges, addressing the need for measurements as well as the Gross Domestic Product. All contributors in this foundational volume are recognized experts in their fields, all inspired by the path-breaking research of Dale W. Jorgenson. Demonstrates how an approach based on sources of economic growth (KLEMS – capital, labor, energy, materials and services) can be used to analyze economic growth and productivity Includes examples covering the G7, E7, EU, Latin America, Norway, China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, India and other South Asian countries Examines the effects of digital, information, communication and integrated technologies on national and regional economies