Mathletics : how gamblers, managers, and sports enthusiasts use mathematics in baseball, basketball, and football

__Mathletics__ is a remarkably entertaining book that shows readers how to use simple mathematics to analyze a range of statistical and probability-related questions in professional baseball, basketball, and football, and in sports gambling. How does professional baseball evaluate hitters? Is a singles hitter like Wade Boggs more valuable than a power hitter like David Ortiz? Should NFL teams pass or run more often on first downs? Could professional basketball have used statistics to expose the crooked referee Tim Donaghy? Does money buy performance in professional sports? In __Mathletics__, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports--and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. __Mathletics__ blends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts--such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations--are fully explained in the examples. After reading __Mathletics__, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt, why football overtime systems are unfair, why points, rebounds, and assists aren't enough to determine who's the NBA's best player--and much, much more. Contents......Page 8 Preface......Page 12 Acknowledgments......Page 14 List of Abbreviations......Page 16 Part I. Baseball......Page 20 1. Baseball’s Pythagorean Theorem......Page 22 The Runs-Created Approach......Page 30 3. Evaluating Hitters by Linear Weights......Page 36 4. Evaluating Hitters by Monte Carlo Simulation......Page 49 5. Evaluating Baseball Pitchers and Forecasting Future Pitcher Performance......Page 60 6. Baseball Decision-Making......Page 71 Sabermetrics’ Last Frontier......Page 83 8. Player Win Averages......Page 90 Evaluating Trades and Fair Salary......Page 98 10. Park Factors......Page 103 11. Streakiness in Sports......Page 106 12. The Platoon Effect......Page 121 13. Was Tony Perez a Great Clutch Hitter?......Page 125 14. Pitch Count and Pitcher Effectiveness......Page 129 15. Would Ted Williams Hit .406 Today?......Page 132 16. Was Joe DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak the Greatest Sports Record of All Time?......Page 135 17. Major League Equivalents......Page 142 Part II. Football......Page 144 18. What Makes NFL Teams Win?......Page 146 19. Who’s Better, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning?......Page 151 20. Football States and Values......Page 157 21. Football Decision-Making 101......Page 162 22. A State and Value Analysis of the 2006 Super Bowl Champion Colts......Page 170 23. If Passing Is Better Than Running, Why Don’t Teams Always Pass?......Page 177 24. Should We Go for a One-Point or Two-Point Conversion?......Page 184 The Case of College Football Overtime......Page 191 26. Why Is the NFL’s Overtime System Fatally Flawed?......Page 194 27. How Valuable Are High Draft Picks in the NFL?......Page 199 Part III. Basketball......Page 204 The Four-Factor Model......Page 206 29. Linear Weights for Evaluating NBA Players......Page 214 30. Adjusted +/– Player Ratings......Page 221 31. NBA Lineup Analysis......Page 243 32. Analyzing Team and Individual Matchups......Page 247 33. NBA Players’ Salaries and the Draft......Page 252 34. Are NBA Officials Prejudiced?......Page 256 35. Are College Basketball Games Fixed?......Page 261 36. Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games?......Page 263 37. End-Game Basketball Strategy......Page 267 Part IV. Playing with Money, and Other Topics for Serious Sports Fans......Page 272 38. Sports Gambling 101......Page 274 39. Freakonomics Meets the Bookmaker......Page 281 40. Rating Sports Teams......Page 285 41. Which League Has Greater Parity, The NFL or the NBA?......Page 302 42. The Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)......Page 306 43. From Point Ratings to Probabilities......Page 309 The Kelly Growth Criteria......Page 317 45. Ranking Great Sports Collapses......Page 322 46. Can Money Buy Success?......Page 330 47. Does Joey Crawford Hate the Spurs?......Page 338 The Case of NBA Back-to-Back Games and NFL Bye Weeks......Page 340 49. Can the Bowl Championship Series Be Saved?......Page 343 50. Comparing Players from Different Eras......Page 350 51. Conclusions......Page 354 Index of Databases......Page 360 Annotated Bibliography......Page 362 C......Page 372 G......Page 373 M......Page 374 P......Page 375 W......Page 376 Z......Page 377

Winston has an uncanny knack for bringing the game alive through the fascinating mathematical questions he explores. He gets inside professional sports like no other writer I know. Mathletics is like a seat at courtside.--Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks

Wayne Winston's Mathletics combines rigorous analytical methodologies with a very inquisitive approach. This should be a required starting point for anyone desiring to use mathematics in the world of sports.--KC Joyner, author of Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle Is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts

People who want the details on the analysis of baseball need to read Mathletics. This book provides the statistics behind Moneyball.--Pete Palmer, coeditor of The ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia and The ESPN Pro Football Encyclopedia

Winston has brought together the latest thinking on sports mathematics in one comprehensive place. This volume is perfect for someone seeking a general overview or who wants to dive into advanced thinking on the latest sports-analytics topics.--Daryl Morey, general manager of the Houston Rockets

Mathletics offers insights into the mathematical analysis of three major sports and sports gambling. The basketball and sports bookies sections are particularly interesting and loaded with in-depth examples and analysis. The author's passion seems to jump right off the page.--Michael Huber, Muhlenberg College

I really enjoyed this unique book, as will anyone who is a serious sports fan with some interest in mathematics. Winston is very knowledgeable about baseball, basketball, and football, and about the mathematical techniques needed to analyze a multitude of questions that arise in them. He does a very good job of explaining complex mathematical ideas in a simple way.--George L. Nemhauser, Georgia Institute of Technology

Booklist

Sports fans will learn much from probability theory and statistical models as they abandon empty clichés (time to throw momentum out of the informed fan's lexicon) and confront institutionalized injustices (such as those built into the protocols for selecting a national champion in college football and for seeding the NCAA's basketball tournament). A rare fusion of sports enthusiasm and numerical acumen.

From the Publisher: Mathletics is a remarkably entertaining book that shows readers how to use simple mathematics to analyze a range of statistical and probability-related questions in professional baseball, basketball, and football, and in sports gambling. How does professional baseball evaluate hitters? Is a singles hitter like Wade Boggs more valuable than a power hitter like David Ortiz? Should NFL teams pass or run more often on first downs? Could professional basketball have used statistics to expose the crooked referee Tim Donaghy? Does money buy performance in professional sports? In Mathletics, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports-and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. Mathletics blends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts-such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations-are fully explained in the examples. After reading Mathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt, why football overtime systems are unfair, why points, rebounds, and assists aren't enough to determine who's the NBA's best player-and much, much more "John Tyler Bonner has experimented with cellular slime molds for more than sixty years, and he has done more than anyone else to raise these peculiar collections of amoebae from a minor biological curiosity to a major model organism - one that is widely studied for clues to the development and evolution of all living things. Now, five decades after he published his first pioneering book on cellular slime molds, Bonner steps back from the proliferating and increasingly specialized knowledge about the organism to provide a broad, nontechnical picture of its whole biology, including its evolution, sociobiology, ecology, behavior, and development. The Social Amoebae draws the big lessons from decades of research, and shows how slime molds fit into and illuminate biology as a whole." "Slime molds are very different from other organisms; they feed as individual amoebae before coming together to form a multicellular organism that has a remarkable ability to move and orient itself in its environment. Furthermore, these social amoebae display a sophisticated division of labor; within each organism, some cells form the stalk and others become the spores that will seed the next generation. In The Social Amoebae, Bonner examines all these parts together, giving a balanced, concise, and clear overview of slime mold biology, from molecules to cells to multi-cells, as he advances some unconventional and unexpected insights."--Jacket