Luck Theory: A Philosophical Introduction to the Mathematics of Luck (Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning, 20)

This book is an original―the first-ever treatment of the mathematics of Luck. Setting out from the principle that luck can be measured by the gap between reasonable expectation and eventual realization, the book develops step-by-step a mathematical theory that accommodates the entire range of our pre-systematic understanding of the way in which luck functions in human affairs. In so moving from explanatory exposition to mathematical treatment, the book provides a clear and accessible account of the way in which luck assessment enters into the calculations of rational decision theory. Preface 7 Philosophical Prologue (Fortune, Fate, and Chance) 10 Introduction 21 Setting the Stage for Chancy Luck 21 Contents 26 Notational Conventions 27 Glossary 27 Notation 28 Basic Equations 29 Chapter 1: Chancy Outcome Situations 30 Chapter 2: Outcome Luck Assessment and the Luck Equation 39 2.1 Preliminaries 39 2.2 The Basic Luck Equation 41 Question Appendix 50 Chapter 3: Variant Approaches to Luck 52 3.1 Summary 57 Chapter 4: Some Illustrative Examples 58 Chapter 5: Luck in Success/Failure Situations 74 5.1 Searching 79 Chapter 6: Basic Luck Theorems 81 6.1 Commentary 88 Chapter 7: Luck and Risk 89 Chapter 8: Managing Luck 93 Appendix 98 Assessing Various Critiques 98 Bibliography 107 Name Index 112