Iran in an Emerging New World Order: From Ahmadinejad to Rouhani (Studies in Iranian Politics)

Shafaei-and especially Dr. Kaveh Yazdani for reviewing almost the entire earlier draft. Special thanks are due to Profs. em. Werner Ruf and (the late) Hans-Jürgen Krysmanski for the relentless support I have always been able to count on. This work would not have been possible without the support of my parents, to whom this book is dedicated, as well as many dear friends. I would like to extend my sincere gratitude especially to Kaveh Yazdani and Ibrahim E. Sahin, who have provided crucial moral support throughout the final stages of my PhD project. Also, many thanks are due to Janina Mitwalli, Dr. Jens Wagner, Maryam Ommy and Vassilios Miaris. Kamuran Sezer has provided me with indispensable moral and logistical support during difficult times, and many thanks are also due to his adorable team at his Futureorg Institute, namely Dr. Nilgün Daglar-Sezer and Gizem Demirtas. Çok tesȩkkür ederim, Kamuran abi! I would like to thank my parents for their unconditional love and support without whom all of this would have not been possible.Last but not least, I would like to thank the team at Palgrave Macmillan and especially the series editor Prof. Shahram Akbarzadeh for their support and tremendous patience.Needless to say, all shortcomings are solely mine. Acknowledgements Praise for Iran in an Emerging New World Order Contents About the Author List of Acronyms List of Figures List of Tables Chapter 1: Introduction (A) Studying Iran’s International Relations Amid Changing International and Domestic Power Relations External Dialectic: Exploring the International Geography of Power (World Order) Brief Account of International, Domestic and Regional Arenas Discussing Iran’s International Relations Beyond the Iran–U.S. Stand-off (B) Structure of the Book Bibliography A B P Official Documents (Excerpts) Chapter 2: A Critical Geopolitics of International Relations: A Theoretical Derivation Introduction Iran’s Geostrategic Location: A Salient Spot of Geopolitical Rivalry Broad Consensus in Iranian Foreign-Policy Studies: Interplay Between Structure/Culture and Internal/External (A) Engaging with the “Constructivist Turn” in IR Theory: On Constructivism and Critical Geopolitics Blind Spots on the Realist Radar Critical Geopolitics: Critically Investigating Geopolitical Representations Constructivism: The Social Construction of National Interests The Construction of Interests: Primacy of Ideational or Material Underpinnings? IR Scholarship in the IRI: Geopolitics and Constructivism (B) Outlining a Critical Geopolitics of International Relations: Defining the Agent–System Arrangement Summary The Agent: The State and Its Foreign-Policy Élite The System Level: An Increasingly Multipolar International System—From Unipolarity to Imperial Interpolarity Theory The Dialectic Construction of Foreign-Policy Culture Agent: The State and Its Élite The State–Society Complex The Élite The Power Élite: Some Conceptual Clarifications Élite Consciousness Methodology: Towards Investigating Geopolitics as Structure and as Culture Geopolitics as Culture Defining Geopolitical Imaginations and Geopolitical Culture Geopolitics as Structure Summary and Conclusion Bibliography A B C D E F H K L M N O P R S V W Y Chapter 3: Iranian Geopolitical Imaginations: A Critical Account Introduction Prelude: On the Need to Reach Beyond Conventional Framings of Iran’s Foreign-Policy Behaviour (A) The Roots of Modern Iranian Political Culture: From “Anti-colonial Modernity” to the Islamic Republic “Anti-colonial Modernity” as Iranians’ Collective Historical Experience and the Shaping of the Three Politico-ideological Formations of Nationalism, Socialism and Islamism The Islamization of Post-revolutionary Political and Foreign-Policy Culture How the Iranian Revolution Was Transformed into an Islamic Republic: Towards Islamizing State and Society Islamizing Foreign Policy Independence via Non-alignment as Grand-Strategic Preference Bipolar Political Power-Structure and Foreign-Policy Orientations: The Roots of National-Security Discourses in the IRI Theoretical Insights (B) Iranian Political Cultures and Geopolitical Imaginations: On the Geopolitical Significance of an Identity Marker Nationalism: The Determining Ideology of Modern Iran and the Prime Geopolitical Orbit Persian Ultra-nationalism and the “Aryan Myth”: Importing Racial Nationalism Made in Europe Nationalism-Based Geopolitical Imagination Nationalism and Islamism: Mutual Exclusivity, Amalgam and Continuity Mutual Exclusivity: Western Nationalism vs. Eastern Islam(ism) Iranian Blend: Shia Islam as Religious Nationalism Iranian Grandeur as Nationalist Continuity from the Monarchy to the Islamic Republic Islamism(s): The Shia and Pan-Islamic Geopolitical Circles Shia vs. Pan-Islamic Geopolitics Pan-Islamism’s Third-Worldism Third-Worldism: The Fountainhead of the Independence Leitmotiv Third-World Nationalism Third-Worldism and Islamism in the Face of Imperialism: From Revolutionary Alliance to Imperialist Triumph The Revolutionary, Anti-colonial Impetus Incongruity of Islamist Anti-imperialism Reappraising the 1953 Coup: Third-World Nationalism as Thorn in the Side of Imperialism and Islamism Independence as Leitmotiv: Distillate from the Triad of Ideational Sources Conclusion Bibliography A B C D E F G H I J K L M N P R S T V Z Official Documents (Excerpts) Chapter 4: The Islamic Republic of Iran: State–Society Complex and the Political Elite’s Political and Geopolitical Culture Introduction (A) The State–Society Complex in the IRI: Exploring the Military–Clerical–Commercial Complex The Supreme Leader: A Supreme Position of Power and Influence A Short History of the Rise to Power of the Shia Clergy: On State–Clerical–Commercial Relations Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Clerical–Commercial Complex The Military: The IRGC Becoming the Central Body for Élite Recruitment Khamenei and the IRGC The Political Economy of the IRI: The State and Para-statal Actors Concluding Observations The Political Economy of the IRI’s Longevity: Populism and the Continuity of Class Rule The Supreme Leader: Neo-sultanism and State–Society Relations (B) The Political Elite’s Political and Geopolitical Culture Post-war Governments and Their Agendas The Reconstruction and Reform Period: 1989–2005 The Neo-conservative Period: 2005–2013 Factionalism and Social Bases The Traditional Conservatives The Centrists: The Pragmatic Conservatives The Reformists (1997–2004) The Neo-conservatives (2005–2012) Political and Geopolitical Culture in the IRI: The Élite’s and State’s Identity Constructions and Interests “Islamic Iran”: Élite Consensus in the IRI “Islam Is the Only Way”: Constructing the State’s Political Culture and Its Ramifications The Global Failure of Socialism and Liberalism—And the Triumph of Islam(ism) Disqualifying Socialism as a Way to Preserve the Capitalist Political Economy of the State Khamenei’s Islamist Eclecticism: The Worldview of the IRI’s Top Ideologue Conclusion Bibliography A B C D E F G H J K M N O P R S T W Y TV Broadcasts (Excerpts) Expert Interviews With Chapter 5: Foreign-Policy Schools of Thought and Debates in the IRI Introduction (A) Foreign-Policy Institutions The Role of Think-Tanks Implications for Foreign-Policy Making (B) Foreign-Policy Schools of Thought Islamic Idealists Pan-Islamism and “Islamic unity” Deficiencies and Strengths Regional Power Balancers: Offensive and Defensive Realists Revisiting Neo-Realist IR Theory Iran’s (Neo-)Realists: Common Denominators Iran’s Offensive Realists Triumphalist Account of Iranian Power Paradoxical Account of U.S. Power: Powerful but Vulnerable The Dual National-Security Threat: War Threats a Bluff, but “Soft War” Serious Iranian Responses: The Primacy of the IRI’s Ideological Sources of Power “Hard” Responses: Asymmetrical Warfare, Proxy War and So On Projecting “Soft Power” in the Face of U.S. “Soft War” Iran’s Defensive Realists Global Balancers and the “America Question” Rejectionists: Survival of the “Islamic Revolution” Through Anti-Americanism Accommodationists (C) Foreign-Policy Controversies Among Schools of Thought The Pursuit of “Strategic Depth”: Which Sites to Prioritize? Perception of Iranian Foreign Policy: Whose Perception Counts? Framing the Nuclear Conflict with the West Controversy over Nuclear Diplomacy On Categorizing the Ahmadinejad Administration’s Foreign Policy An Unsettled Conflict: How Offensive Realists Hold Iran’s Geopolitical Successes to Their Credit Conclusion Shifting Tendencies Rather Than Clear-cut Change The Modus Operandi of the IRI’s Foreign Policy: The Three Realms The Maslahat Principle: Or the Primacy of Regime Survival Bibliography A B D E F G H K L M N O P R S T V W Z Chapter 6: Iran’s International Relations in the Face of U.S. Imperial Hubris: From “9/11” to the Iraq War Introduction Theoretical Considerations on Outside–Inside Dynamics (A) Guiding Principles of Iran’s Policy Towards Afghanistan and Central Asia: Regional Stability as Precondition for Security and Economic Development (B) The Evolution of National Security and Foreign Policy (Late 2001–Early 2004) From Toppling the Taliban to the “Axis of Evil” Speech: The Rise and Fall of Defensive Realism Iranian Security Dilemma: The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend? The Brief Moment of Defensive Realist Triumph The “Axis of Evil” Speech: Imperial Hubris and the Weakness of the Defensive Realist Strategy (C) Towards Iran’s 2003 “Grand Bargain” Offer: Intra-élite Consensus in the Face of a Dual Threat to National and Regime Security 2002: Internal and External Threats Looming Time for Maslahat: Towards Intra-élite Consensus in 2002 Iran’s Post-Iraq Invasion 2003 Secret “Grand Bargain” Offer: The Revival of Defensive Realism and Renewed Rebuttal Due to U.S. Imperial Hubris (D) Ramifications on Iran’s Foreign Policy and State–Society Complex: Towards Radicalization Foreign Policy Offensive Realism Taking the Wheel of Iran’s Regional Policies Emboldened Global Rejectionists Paving the Way for the “Look to the East” Policy State–Society Complex: Externally Aided Para-militarization Conclusion Theoretical Observations on “Mutual Constitution”: The Issue of Disjointedness Bibliography A B C D E F G H J K M N P R S T V W Chapter 7: Iran’s International Relations in the Face of Imperial Interpolarity: The “Look to the East” Policy and Multifaceted Impact of Sanctions Introduction (A) Iran’s “Look to the East” Policy and Imperial Interpolarity The “Look to the East” Policy Iran’s Increasing Alienation from Europe The “Look to the East” Policy’s Underlying Logic: Asia’s Rise and U.S. Decline Iranian Assumptions About Bases for Cooperation in Eurasia Imperial Interpolarity: Concept for Grasping the Emerging New World Order After Unipolarity Summary Implications of the Uneven Distribution of Global Power: Adding “the Imperial” and Qualifying Interdependence The Unrivalled Means of Power at the Hands of a Single State Acting as the Imperial Power Multiple Faces of Interdependence Sketching the Configuration of Imperial Interpolarity The Iran Sanctions Regime: A Prime Example of U.S. Unilateral Power Imperial Interpolarity in the International Iran Conflict: Through the Prism of World Order The Primacy of Relations with the U.S. The Case of Russia The Case of China The Case of India The Question of Status and Tiers in the World Order: Preserving Hierarchy The 2010 Brazil- and Turkey-Brokered Tehran Declaration: The UNSC Repudiating Aspiring Powers Iran’s Bid to Join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Keeping Iran at Bay Conclusion on Iran’s “Look to the East” Policy: Misjudging International Realities The Emerging New World Order and Implications for Iran as Regional Power: An Iranian Viewpoint Critical of Offensive Realism (B) Multifaceted Impact of Sanctions Geo-economic and Geopolitical Costs Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy: Continuity and Change Ramifications on the State–Society Complex A Magic Wand to Decapitate Evil? The Political Narrative of Empowering Sanctions The Political Economy of Sanctions: Crippling the Economy and Cementing the Authoritarian State Sanctions and the Weakening of Civil-Society Actors Women Students Labour Malign Effects of Sanctions: The General Academic Literature and the Need for an Iranian Case-Study Prolonging Authoritarian Rule Furthering State-Sponsored Repression Conclusions Conclusion and Some Observations on Iran’s Development Bibliography A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Z Official Documents (Excerpts) Chapter 8: Conclusions Summary Empirical and Theoretical Findings On the Role of World-Order Constellations and Its Perception in Shaping Iran’s International Relations Ideational and/or Material? On the Material and Geopolitical Significance of Identity Constructions External–Internal and Internal–External Dynamics: Impacting the Trajectory of Iran’s International Relations and Its State–Society Complex Reflections on the Study’s Findings: Prospects for Iran’s Development and Independence The 2025 Outlook: Template for a Twenty-First-Century Grand Strategy Developmentalist Foreign Policy: Objectives and Requirements Economic Development, National Security and Foreign Policy: A Critical Reading of the Proposed Development Model Is There a Way Out of the Imperial Interpolar Trap? Developmentalist Foreign Policy and the Fate of the Independence Leitmotiv Ideas for Future Research Bibliography A B C E F G H I J K L M P R S T V W Y Z Official Documents (Excerpts) Bibliography Note on Foreign-Language Titles Note on Author Affiliation A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z TV Broadcasts (Excerpts) Official Documents (Excerpts) Expert Interviews With Expert Meetings under “Chatham House” Rules on Iran and the Wana Region List of Sources: Journals, Newspapers, News Agencies, Websites etc.: Sources on Iran Other International Outlets Covering West Asian and International Affairs Index This book critically develops and discusses Iran's geopolitical imaginations and explores its various foreign-policy schools of thought and their controversies. In doing so, the book covers Iran's foreign policy and international relations from'9/11'all the way to Rouhani's rise (late 2014). Accounting for both domestic and the international balance of power, the book theorizes the post-unipolar world order of the 2000s, dubbed “imperial interpolarity”, examines Iran's relations with non-Western great-powers in that era, and offers a critique of the “Rouhani doctrine” and its economic and foreign-policy visions.Forged in the fires and intense deliberations of a PhD, undertaken at a most unique institution of higher learning in the world, Ali Fathollah-Nejad has produced one of the most informative and evocative studies of Iran's foreign policy and international relations to date. Framed in a highly original theoretical approach, Ali's nuanced analysis, drawing on a lorry load of primary and secondary sources, details the process and context of policy in the Islamic Republic, thus producing an unrivalled and lasting account of modern Iran's worldview and the behaviour of this revolutionary state in a fast-changing world.—Anoush Ehteshami, Professor of International Relations & Director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University (UK)Empirically rich and theoretically sophisticated, Iran in an Emerging New World Order flashes out the key drivers behind Iran's international relations since the mid-2000s. Providing evidence for the material and geopolitical significance of Iran's identity constructions, the book enriches the debate on the Islamic Republic's foreign policy and bridges the divide between the discipline of IR and area studies.—Fawaz A. Gerges, Professor of International Relations & inaugural Director, LSE Middle East Centre (2010–13), London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE); author of the forthcoming The 100 Years'War for Control of the Middle East (Princeton University Press, 2021).Ali Fathollah-Nejad has established himself as one of the most insightful observers of Iranian politics. Providing the analytical background to his assessments of Tehran's foreign policy in the 21st century, this book comes out opportunely at a time when a new U.S. administration is about to re-engage with Iran.—Gilbert Achcar, Professor of Development Studies and International Relations, SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies) University of LondonA decisive contribution to two avant-gardist fields of knowledge: Critical geopolitics and Iranian foreign relations. Anyone interested in cutting-edge research that brings together International Relations and Iranian Studies will revel in this important book.—Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Professor in Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies, Department of Politics and International Studies & former Chair (2012–18), Centre for Iranian Studies, SOAS University of LondonOne of the few to have a thorough, beyond-the-headlines and forward-looking grasp of Iran, Ali Fathollah-Nejad offers a brilliant analysis of what is in store for Iran. A must-read for anybody interested in geopolitics.—Florence Gaub, Deputy Director & Director of Research, European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), ParisIt is no longer possible to think of any nation-state without simultaneously seeing the reflection of an entire changing world in it. Ali Fathollah-Nejad's prose and politics in Iran in an Emerging New World Order is the state-of-the-art mapping of the epistemic shift that seeks to understand the global in the local, and the domestic in the foreign. The result is a mode of supple and symbiotic thinking that reveals the way transnational politics d This book critically develops and discusses Iran's geopolitical imaginations and explores its various foreign-policy schools of thought and their controversies. In doing so, the book covers Iran's foreign policy and international relations from "9/11" all the way to Rouhani's rise (late 2014). Accounting for both domestic and the international balance of power, the book theorizes the post-unipolar world order of the 2000s, dubbed "imperial interpolarity", examines Iran's relations with non-Western great-powers in that era, and offers a critique of the "Rouhani doctrine" and its economic and foreign-policy visions. Forged in the fires and intense deliberations of a PhD, undertaken at a most unique institution of higher learning in the world, Ali Fathollah-Nejad has produced one of the most informative and evocative studies of Iran's foreign policy and international relations to date. Framed in a highly original theoretical approach, Ali's nuanced analysis, drawing on a lorry load of primary and secondary sources, details the process and context of policy in the Islamic Republic, thus producing an unrivalled and lasting account of modern Iran's worldview and the behaviour of this revolutionary state in a fast-changing world. —Anoush Ehteshami, Professor of International Relations & Director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University (UK) Empirically rich and theoretically sophisticated, Iran in an Emerging New World Order flashes out the key drivers behind Iran's international relations since the mid-2000s. Providing evidence for the material and geopolitical significance of Iran's identity constructions, the book enriches the debate on the Islamic Republic's foreign policy and bridges the divide between the discipline of IR and area studies. —Fawaz A. Gerges, Professor of International Relations & inaugural Director, LSE Middle East Centre (2010–13), London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE); author of the forthcoming The 100 Years' War for Control of the Middle East (Princeton University Press, 2021). Ali Fathollah-Nejad has established himself as one of the most insightful observers of Iranian politics. Providing the analytical background to his assessments of Tehran's foreign policy in the 21st century, this book comes out opportunely at a time when a new U.S. administration is about to re-engage with Iran. —Gilbert Achcar, Professor of Development Studies and International Relations, SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies) University of London A decisive contribution to two avant-gardist fields of knowledge: Critical geopolitics and Iranian foreign relations. Anyone interested in cutting-edge research that brings together International Relations and Iranian Studies will revel in this important book. —Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Professor in Global Thought and Comparative Philosophies, Department of Politics and International Studies & former Chair (2012–18), Centre for Iranian Studies, SOAS University of London One of the few to have a thorough, beyond-the-headlines and forward-looking grasp of Iran, Ali Fathollah-Nejad offers a brilliant analysis of what is in store for Iran. A must-read for anybody interested in geopolitics. —Florence Gaub, Deputy Director & Director of Research, European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), Paris It is no longer possible to think of any nation-state without simultaneously seeing the reflection of an entire changing world in it. Ali Fathollah-Nejad's prose and politics in Iran in an Emerging New World Order is the... This book critically develops and discusses Iran's geopolitical imaginations and explores its various foreign-policy schools of thought and their controversies. Accounting for both domestic and the international balance of power, the book theorizes the post-unipolar world order of the 2000s, dubbed "imperial interpolarity", examines Iran's relations with non-Western great-powers in that era, and offers a critique of the "Rouhani doctrine" and its economic and foreign-policy visions. Ali Fathollah-Nejad is Senior Lecturer in Middle East and Comparative Politics at the University of Tübingen's Institute of Political Science, where he is also Coordinator of the joint Master's program with the American University in Cairo (AUC). He is also a Nonresident Fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP), following his Visiting Fellowship at the Brookings Doha Center. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the Department of Development Studies at SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London) and was a post-doctoral Associate with the Harvard Kennedy School's Iran Project This book critically develops and discusses Irans geopolitical imaginations and explores its various foreign-policy schools of thought and their controversies. Accounting for both domestic and the international balance of power, the book theorizes the post-unipolar world order of the 2000s, dubbed "imperial interpolarity", examines Irans relations with non-Western great-powers in that era, and offers a critique of the "Rouhani doctrine" and its economic and foreign-policy visions. Ali Fathollah-Nejad is Senior Lecturer in Middle East and Comparative Politics at the University of Tubingens Institute of Political Science, where he is also Coordinator of the joint Masters program with the American University in Cairo (AUC). He is also a Nonresident Fellow at the Brookings Institutions Center for Middle East Policy (CMEP), following his Visiting Fellowship at the Brookings Doha Center. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the Department of Development Studies at SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London) and was a post-doctoral Associate with the Harvard Kennedy Schools Iran Project