International Seminar On Trends In Mathematical Modelling: Venice, 13-18 December 1971 (lecture Notes In Economics And Mathematical Systems)

Paolo Bisogno and Augusto Forti Taking an interest in the future is among the most instinctive Conscious of the existence of time as well as of human activities. space, man has always tried to guess what the future holds. Until recently scholars have left the field of speculation to the pseudo­ sciences of astrology and palmistry or to the ambiguities of the oracles. Imaginative writers have made some brilliant contributions, but the development of mathematical modelling and other predictive techniques are relatively recent arrivals. The new techniques have come at just the right moment. Today the study of the future has a much sharper relevance than ever before, because people have begun to realise that the future can be controlled - or even that it must be controlled if there is to be a future at all; man should take charge and choose his own future from a wide range of possibilities. Unless he does so, the pressures of the pre­ sent will impose their own logic and produce a future from a flawed mould - a future in which the contradictions of wealth, privilege and power are monstrously exaggerated by the magnifier of economic growth. Front Matter....Pages I-VI Introduction....Pages 1-7 Front Matter....Pages 8-8 The Role of Futures Research in Societal Modelling....Pages 9-13 The Present State of Futures Research in the Soviet Union....Pages 14-19 Front Matter....Pages 20-20 A System of Models for Central Planning....Pages 21-30 A “Non-Paternalistic” Attitude in Using Models of Social Organizations....Pages 31-40 Mathematical Models in the Design and Operation of Public Transport Systems....Pages 41-50 Front Matter....Pages 51-51 Mathematical Modelling for Some Social and Environmental Problems....Pages 52-59 Dynamic Systems Modelling....Pages 60-77 The Dynamics of Global Equilibrium....Pages 78-95 System Simulation to Test Environmental Policy: A Sample Study of DDT Movement in the Environment....Pages 96-143 A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Urban Development of Venice....Pages 144-154 Some Aspects of Socio-Economic Modelling....Pages 155-163 Imitation Models of Historical Processes....Pages 164-168 Front Matter....Pages 169-169 A Computer Method of Analysing the Structure of Behavioural Models....Pages 170-177 Information Systems and Computer Systems....Pages 178-181 Cybernetics and Mathematical Modelling....Pages 182-194 Soft Models, Hard Data, and Social Reality....Pages 195-204 Principles of Simulation of Hierarchical Control Systems....Pages 205-226 Front Matter....Pages 227-227 Delphi Research : Experiments and Prospects....Pages 228-237 Algorithms for Assessing the Quality of Expert Data....Pages 238-242 Front Matter....Pages 227-227 Applications of Futures Research to Society’s Problems....Pages 243-287 Back Matter....Pages 288-290