International Seminar On Nuclear War And Planetary Emergencies, 38Th Session: E.majorana Centre for Scientific Culture Erice, Italy, 19-24 Aug 2007 (The ... - Nuclear Strategy and Peace Technology)

The Erice International Seminars are multidisciplinary seminars attended by over 100 eminent participants from all fields of science. Each year, a few scientific issues are selected and experts are invited to present contrasting views during the plenary multidisciplinary sessions of the seminar, followed by general debates. These sessions offer a unique opportunity for specialists to enlarge their vision of their related fields by being confronted with ideas and suggestions from high-level scientists in complementary domains of science. Associated workshops allow the experts to further refine and process the ideas evoked during the seminar. This year's topics are all actual. For instance, on climate issues we have focused on the management of a global warming and on new theoretical alternatives to climate modeling. On global monitoring of the planet, we have focused on the US missile defence shield, the energy externalities and waste disposal and the historical dive by Dr Chilingarov on the North Pole shelf. On the medical side, we have investigated the Alzheimer epidemics and the role of infectious agents in cancer. CONTENTS......Page 10 1. OPENING SESSION......Page 18 INTRODUCTION......Page 20 LANDSCAPE SPECIES-THE CRANE......Page 22 DEGRADATION OF FORESTS......Page 23 BIODIVERSITY AND CARBON DISTRIBUTION IN YOUNG PLANTATIONS......Page 24 BIODIVERSITY AND CARBON DISTRIBUTION IN OLD PINE FORESTS......Page 25 RIODIVERSlTY AND CARBON DISTRIBUTION IN BEECH FOMSTS......Page 26 WETEROGENOUS LANDSCAPE......Page 28 Yuri A. lzrael The Role of Stratospheric Aerosols in Antagonizing the Global Climate Change......Page 30 RADIATIVE FORCING COMPONENTS......Page 31 REFERENCES......Page 37 Mikhail J. Antonovsky From Monitoring of COz Atmospheric Concentrations to Monitoring of Global Climatic Change......Page 38 FIT EQUATION......Page 41 ANALYSIS RATE OF INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC COz CONCENTRATION AT EACH MONTH OF THE OBSERVATIONS AT MLO AND BRW STATION......Page 44 THE THEORETICAL BASE:......Page 53 Giuseppe Vatinno Energy and Environment: A Challenge for the Future......Page 60 REFERENCES......Page 64 Andre' Martin Acceptance of the Gian-Carlo Wick Gold Medal......Page 66 INTRODUCTION......Page 68 COMPLEXlTY AND PREDICTIONS AT THE FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE......Page 69 PROBLEMS WITH THE MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR “CLIMATIC CHANGES”......Page 72 A FEW WORDS ON THE ORIGIN OF IPCC......Page 73 CONCLUSIONS......Page 74 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 75 REFERENCES......Page 89 2. ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE-INTRODUCTION......Page 94 William A. Sprigs and John S. Perry Climate, Energy and Planetary Emergency......Page 96 Arthur H. Rosenfeld Managing Climate Change......Page 98 HOW MUCH OF THE SAVINGS COME FROM EFFICIENCY......Page 99 POSSIBLE!. EMISSION TRAJECTORIES 2000-2100 OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS......Page 102 INDUSTRY......Page 103 TRANSPORTATION......Page 104 MCKINSEY QUARTERLY......Page 105 SUPPLY CURVE FOR COz, CONSERVED THRU ENERGY EFFlCIENCY IN ELECTRICTTY SECTOR IN CALIFORNIA-POTENTIAL IN 201 1 AT 1 KWH = 0.454 KG OF COz......Page 108 IMPACT OF STANDARDS ON EFFICIENCY OF 3 APPLIANCES......Page 110 ANNUAL ENERGY SAVED VS. SEVERAL SOURCES OF SUPPLY IN THE UNITED STATES......Page 111 COMPARISON OF 3 GORGES TO REFRIGERATOR AND AC EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS......Page 112 CALIFORNIA IOU's INVESTMENT IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY......Page 113 ANNUAL ENERGY SAVINGS FROM EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS AND STANDARDS......Page 114 3. ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE-CLIMATOLOGY......Page 116 Filippo Giorgi Climate Change: Key Conclusions from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4)......Page 118 lgor Bashmakov Energy Transitions (Camera-Ready Contribution Not Available)......Page 11 INTRODUCTION......Page 120 DEFINITION AND HISTORICAL EXAMPLES......Page 121 HAVE WE ALREADY TIPPED SOME ELEMENTS?......Page 123 POTENTIAL FUTURE TIPPING ELEMENTS......Page 124 INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TIPPING ELEMENTS......Page 127 WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT TIPPING POINTS?......Page 128 REFERENCES......Page 130 4. ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE-MITIGATION OF GREENHOUSE GASES......Page 132 IPCC WORKING GROUP H: SNAPSHOTS OF THE FUTURE......Page 134 IPCC WORKING GROUP m, MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 135 HOW CAN EMISSIONS BE REDUCED?......Page 139 HOW CAN CARBON SINKS BE ENHANCED?......Page 140 INVESTMENTS......Page 142 Arthur H. Rosenfeld and Patrick McAuliffe Opportunities in the Building Sector: Managing Climate Change......Page 144 ENERGY EFFICIENCY......Page 154 ADVANCED FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES......Page 156 LOW EMISSION FUELS......Page 158 EMISSION SCENARIOS......Page 161 SIMULATION RESULTS......Page 163 REFERENCES......Page 169 THEIDEA......Page 172 PO RIVER VALLEY......Page 173 PRODUCTION......Page 174 ENERGY PRODUCTION......Page 175 ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS......Page 176 RELEVANCE......Page 177 FURTHER DEVELOPMENT......Page 178 DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF LIGHTCOLORED SURFACES......Page 180 COOL ROOF TECHNOLOGIES......Page 181 COOLAND STANDARD COLOR-MATCHED CONCRETE TILES......Page 182 COOL SURFACES ALSO COOL THE GLOBE......Page 183 POTENTlALS TO INCREASE URBAN ALBEDOS 0.1......Page 184 EQUIVALENT VALUE OF AVOIDED COz......Page 185 TYPICAL INTERIOR LAYOUT OF THEi WATEFM3ALTH COILIMUNITY SYSTEM INSTALLATION IN KOTHAPETA ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA.......Page 186 SWITCHING FROM KEROSENE LANTERNS TO RECHARGEABLE LEDS......Page 187 RECHARGEABLE LED FLASHLIGHTS AND TASK LIGHTS ALREADY AVAILABLE......Page 188 5. ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE-FILLING THE GAP: GEO-ENGINEERING AND ADAPTATION......Page 190 INTRODUCTION......Page 192 REFERENCES......Page 201 INTRODUCTION......Page 204 BASIS OF COMPARISON......Page 205 CONCLUDING REMARKS......Page 206 REFERENCES......Page 207 INTRODUCTION......Page 208 THE STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION EFFORTS......Page 209 ADAPTATION HAS LIMITS......Page 210 MITIGATION (AND GEOENGINEERING) SHOULD COMPLEMENT ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT......Page 211 REFERENCES......Page 212 6. ENERGY & CLIMATE FOCUS: MANAGING CLIMATE CHANGE- SUMMARIES & DEBATE......Page 214 ON SESSION 1......Page 216 ON SESSION 3......Page 219 ON SESSION 4......Page 220 ON SESSION 5......Page 221 ON SESSION 6......Page 222 7. MISSILE PROLIFERATION AND DEFENSE FOCUS: US. MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD......Page 224 Richard Wilson The 2007 Bush-Putin Disagreement — Some Background on Anti Ballistic Missile Defense......Page 226 Richard L. Ganvin Ballistic Missile Defense Deployment to Poland and the Czech Republic......Page 230 REFERENCES......Page 237 8. CLIMATE FOCUS: THEORETICAL ALTERNATIVES TO CLIMATE MODELING......Page 238 INTRODUCTION: A THEORY FOR CLIMATE......Page 240 Graeme L. Stephens Model Limitations......Page 242 SIMULATING OBSERVED GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 243 OBSERVED ELEMENTS WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK......Page 244 WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK IN THE FAR MODELS......Page 245 HOW WELL IS THE LINK BETWEEN DYNAMICS AND PFW3PITATION UNDERSTOOD & MODELED?......Page 248 THE NATURE OF TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AOGCMS......Page 250 DYNAMICS AND THE BULK TRANSPORT OF HEAT POLEWARD......Page 251 ABSTRACT......Page 254 REFERENCES......Page 258 METHODS AND RESULTS FROM OBSERVATIONS......Page 260 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 263 REFERENCES......Page 264 9. GLOBAL MONITORING OF THE PLANET FOCUS: THE NORTH POLE AND LIFE CYCLE NUCLEAR ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES......Page 266 Arthur Nikolayevich Chilingarov Opening Remarks......Page 268 REVIEW OF SELECTED LITERATURE......Page 270 APPLICATION......Page 281 REFERENCES......Page 283 INTRODUCTION......Page 288 THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR ON ACHIEVING A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTION BY 2040......Page 289 ADDRESSING NUCLEAR ISSUES......Page 291 CHARACTERISTICS OF A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY FOR RECYCLED NUCLEAR WASTE......Page 293 MASSIVE BEDDED SALT OF THE SALADO FORMATION......Page 294 REFERENCES......Page 296 WEBSITES......Page 297 10. BRAIN DISEASES FOCUS: THE CRISIS OF LOSING MINDS THE EPIDEMIC OF ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE IN THE 21ST CENTURY......Page 298 Bemardino Ghetti How the Brain Changes in Alzheimer’s Disease......Page 300 AUGUSTE D.......Page 303 NEUROFIBRILLARY TANGLES......Page 304 NEUR OFIBRILLARY DEGENERATION......Page 305 BRAIN ATROPHY......Page 306 NEOCORIHX PLAQUES & TANGLES......Page 307 SI !NILE PLAQUE......Page 308 AMYLOID CORE......Page 309 AMYLOID PRECURSOR PROTEIN GENE......Page 310 POSSIBLE FVNCTIONS OF APP......Page 311 NORMAL PROCESSING OF APP......Page 312 NEUROFIBRELLARY TANGLES......Page 313 PAIRED-HELICAL RLAMENTS......Page 314 TAU GENE & TAU PROTEIN......Page 315 TAU MUTATIONS AFFECT MICROTUBULE STABILITY AND NEWRONAL SURVIVAL......Page 316 TAU DEPOSITS IN NEURONS......Page 317 LOSS OF SPINES......Page 318 NUCLEUS BASALIS AND CNOLINERGIC PROJECTIONS......Page 319 PERFORANT PATHWAY......Page 320 APP MUTATIONS......Page 321 PROTEIN MISFOLDING AND FIBRIL, FORMATION: CENTRAL PATHOLOGY OF MOST NEURODEGENERATIVE DISORDERS?......Page 322 NEUROFIBRILLARY TANGLES AND NEURITIC PLAQUES: MODERN TECHNIQUES......Page 324 MAKING THE, DIAGNOSIS OF AD......Page 325 TANGLE (NFI') & PLAQUE (NP) DISTRIBUTION IN AD BRAIN AT AUTOPSY......Page 326 PLAQUE PROGRESSION IN AD......Page 327 AD OLIGOMERIZATION: FROM MONOMER TO OLIGOMERS TO FIBRILS......Page 328 PATHOLOGICAL STATUS OF MCI CASES......Page 329 NEUROPATHOLOGY OF HUMAN ALZHEIMER DISEASE AFTER IMMUNIZATION WITH AMYLOID-B PEPTIDE: A CASE REPORT......Page 330 PLAQUES IN IMMUNIZED SUBJECT......Page 331 PiB IS DIFFERENTIALLY RETAINED ONLY IN AREAS OF AD BRAIN THAT CONTAIN AMYLOID......Page 332 PiB PET IN AD AND CONTROL......Page 333 PiB REENTION IN VIVO CORRELATES WEEL WITH AB AND PLAQUE LEVELS, BUT NOT NFT, DETERMINED POST-MORTEM......Page 334 ANTI-AMYLOID AGENTS......Page 335 MEAN CORTICAL KB BINDING IN NONDEMENTED CONTROLS AND AD (N=41)......Page 336 CORONARY HEART DISEASE AGE-ADJUSTED DEATH RATES: ACTUAL AND EXPECTED UNIED STATES 1950-2000......Page 337 Charles DeCarli Biological Evidence for an Interaction between AD and CVD: Overview and 3 Hypotheses......Page 338 NEUROIMAGING AND BEHAVIORAL EVIDENCE FOR A SECOND MECHANISM OF MEMORY LOSS IN CVD......Page 344 THE CLINICAL PICTURE......Page 358 SNAPSHOTS......Page 359 SECRET FORMULA......Page 361 RISK FACTOR: A SIGNAL......Page 362 RISK FACTORS CAN REPRESENT DIFFERENT MECHANISMS......Page 363 VASCULAR RISK......Page 369 SOCIETAL DILEMMAS......Page 370 John Hardy Alzheimer’s Disease: Genetics to Pathogenesis......Page 372 11. MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES FOCUS: INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND CANCER......Page 382 THE BL STORY......Page 384 PREVENTIVE STRATEGIES IN INFECTIOUS AGENTS-RELATED CANCERS......Page 385 INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND CANCER......Page 386 REFERENCES......Page 387 WORLD POPULATION......Page 388 MAJOR HLJIvIAN DISEASES......Page 389 BIGGEST SINGLE AGENT KILLERS......Page 390 CANCER......Page 391 WHAT IS THE EMERGENCY?......Page 398 ABSTRACT......Page 400 BACKGROUND......Page 401 INFECTIOUS AGENTS AND CANCER......Page 402 REFERENCES......Page 408 Massimo Locati Molecular Links between Inflammation and Cancer......Page 410 REFERENCES......Page 412 DUALITY......Page 414 Cancer Vaccines Jacques-Francois Martin Developing Countries Intervention Programs (Camera-Ready Contribution Not Available)......Page 14 12. WFS GENERAL MEETING PMP REPORTS-DEBATE AND CONCLUSION......Page 420 Henning Wegener Permanent Monitoring Panel Report on Information Security......Page 422 NATIONAL STRATEGIES AND CAPABILITIES......Page 424 SUMMARY OF THE POLLUTION EMERGENCY......Page 426 WORKSHOPS AND SEMINAR SESSIONS......Page 427 PROJECT PHASES......Page 429 PROJECTED FUTURE ACTIVITIES......Page 430 Geraldo G. Serra Permanent Monitoring Panel on Limits of Development......Page 434 AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES PMP PLENARY SESSION & WORKSHOP......Page 436 A STEERING COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL HEALTH ISSUES......Page 437 EXAMPLE: RISE OF CHRONIC DISEASE IN LOW-MID INCOME COUNTRIES......Page 438 MISSION STATEMENT......Page 439 Arthur H. Rosenfeld Recommendation to Governments from the Permanent Monitoring Panel on Energy......Page 440 REFERENCES......Page 441 William A. Sprigg Permanent Monitoring Panel on Climate and Greenhouse Gases......Page 442 THE URGENCY OF ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 443 BACKGROUND......Page 446 WHAT DID WE ACCOMPLISH LAST YEAR?......Page 447 EVIDENCE-BASED STATEMENTS......Page 448 REMARK......Page 449 DIFFUSION AT A COUNTRY SCALE......Page 450 KANGAROO MOTHER METHOD IN EUROPE. 2006......Page 452 THE PROBLEM: INFLUENCE OF STIMULI ON THE IMMATURE BRAIN......Page 454 THE PROBLEM......Page 455 MAIN TOPIC OF CONFEFUZNCE WHY KMC IN A HIGH Tf?CH SETTING?......Page 456 Ahmad Kamal Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism......Page 458 13. BRAIN AND BEHAVIOR WORKSHOP......Page 462 Workshop Agenda......Page 463 Workshop Participants......Page 464 14. ENERGY-CLIMATE WORKSHOP......Page 466 SUBMISSION TO POLICY MAKERS AND LEGISLATORS......Page 468 APPENDIX......Page 469 URANIUM RESOURCE RECOMMENDATION......Page 470 GEOENGINEERING RECOMMENDATION......Page 471 Workshop Participants......Page 472 15. INFECTIOUS DISEASES WORKSHOP......Page 474 Workshop Agenda......Page 475 Workshop Participants......Page 476 16. CLIMATE MODELLING WORKSHOP......Page 478 Workshop Agenda......Page 479 INTRODUCTION BY CHRISTOPHER ESSEX......Page 480 WORKSHOP PRESENTATlONS......Page 481 Report on the Workshop Theoretical Alternatives to Climate Modelling......Page 482 Workshop Participants......Page 495 17. INFORMATION SECURITY WORKSHOP......Page 496 THE CHRONOLOGY......Page 498 THE MODALITY......Page 499 NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS......Page 500 CONCLUSIONS-WHAT CAN BE DONE......Page 502 INTRODUCTION......Page 504 IT SECURITY AWARENESS AND IT SECURITY COMPETENCE IN SOCIETY......Page 505 VULNERABILITIES OF AND THREATS TO IT SYSTEMS......Page 506 IT SECURITY IN INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES......Page 511 TRENDS......Page 515 SUMMARY......Page 518 REFERENCES......Page 519 INTRODUCTORY REMARKS......Page 520 TECHNOLOGICAL AND TECHNICAL INNOVATIONS......Page 522 NEW COMPUTING PARADIGMS AND STRUCTURES......Page 523 NEW SERVICES AND APPLICATIONS......Page 525 REFERENCES......Page 527 FIGURES......Page 529 Workshop Participants......Page 533 18. LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP......Page 534 Workshop Agenda......Page 535 INTRODUCTION......Page 536 EXISTING RESEARCH ON COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE U.S.: SETTING THE STAGE FOR FUTURE DISASTER......Page 537 SHORTCOMINGS OF U.S. POLICY......Page 539 PREVENTING AND CONTROLLING DEVELOPMENT: SOUTH CAROLINA AND CHARLESTON......Page 541 ROLLING EASEMENTS: TEXAS AND SURFSIDE CITY......Page 544 DO NOTHING: NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS......Page 546 REFERENCES......Page 548 Geraldo G. Serra Dealing with Climate Change: The Brazilian Case......Page 550 CONCLUSIONS......Page 554 REFERENCES......Page 555 CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPE......Page 556 CONCLUSION......Page 561 WATER......Page 562 NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT......Page 563 HEATH......Page 564 TEMPERATURE: TMNRS 1901-1995......Page 565 TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS......Page 566 WATER......Page 567 HEALTH-MALARIA......Page 568 DISASER RISK MANAGEMENT......Page 569 GEOLOGICAL......Page 572 POLITICAL......Page 573 PRESENT WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF ISOETS......Page 574 AGRICULTURE AND SOIL USE CHANGE......Page 575 THE FLUVIAL — IND'USTRTAL MEGACflY OF ARGENTINA......Page 580 CONCLUSIONS......Page 581 REFERENCES......Page 582 Workshop Participants......Page 583 19. SEMINAR PARTICIPANTS......Page 584 Seminar Participants......Page 586