International Relations and Asia’s Southern Tier: ASEAN, Australia, and India (Asan-Palgrave Macmillan Series)

This book, part of a series, seeks to re-conceptualize Asian geographies; rather than a static East Asia core, this volume analyzes Asia's southern fringe, as symbolized in the trading group ASEAN and its role in Asia's evolving international relations. The contributors include many leading experts in the field, ensuring that this book will be the go-to text for students, scholars, and civil society decision makers exploring Asia's contemporary political spectrum in real time. International Relations and Asia’s Southern Tier 4 Acknowledgments 6 Contents 7 List of Figures 10 List of Tables 11 Asia’s Southern Tier 12 Comparison of Centrality in Asia’s Southern and Northern Tiers 13 Asia’s Southern Tier 15 Reimagining Asia: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific 20 Defining the Indo-Pacific 21 The Indo-Pacific and Its Limitations 24 A Brief History of the Indo-Pacific 25 To the Asia-Pacific and Back Again 27 China’s Indo-Pacific: Follow the Maritime Silk Road? 29 Some Principles and Parameters for Managing Indo-Pacific Tensions 32 Notes 34 ASEAN and Asian Multilateralism 40 Multilateralism in East Asia: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly 41 Multilateralism in Europe and Asia: Two Different Worlds? 43 Scope Conditions of Multilateralism in East Asia 43 Great Power Management: China, Japan, and the United States 43 Layered Hierarchy of States 44 Global-Regional Nexuses 45 Informal/Tacit Understandings Underlying Regional Cooperation 45 Historical Memory 46 Reasserting the State as a Market Actor 47 Pathways to Study Multilateralism in East Asia 47 Multilateralism as Governance: The Formal-Informal Continuum 48 Conclusions 50 Notes 52 ASEAN-Led Multilateralism and Regional Order: The Great Power Bargain Deficit 55 Multilateralism, ASEAN-Led Institutions, and Regional Order 57 ASEAN’s Achievements in Regional Multilateralism 59 Adaptation and Innovation 59 Inclusivity 60 Legitimizing Great Power Roles 61 Institutionalizing Small State Voices 63 Limitations of ASEAN-Led Institutions in Creating Regional Order 63 Restricted Scope and Domain 64 Minimalist Norms 64 Institution-Racing 65 The Great Power Bargain Deficit 66 Notes 68 Southeast Asia’s Developing Divide 72 The Cold War Divide 73 The China Factor 74 Southeast Asia Undividing 75 The China Factor 77 The Developing Divide 80 The China Factor 80 Developing, but Not Crystallized 81 ASEAN Rebalancing 82 Notes 84 Doomed by Dialogue: Will ASEAN Survive Great Power Rivalry in Asia? 86 What Kind of Rivalry? 87 A Chinese Monroe Doctrine? 90 ASEAN and the Balance of Power 91 ASEAN and “Europe’s Past” 92 ASEAN’s Predicament and Options 95 Notes 99 Rethinking ASEAN in Light of the South China Sea Tensions 101 ASEAN is Neither the Problem Nor the Solution to South China Sea Disputes 102 Assessments of ASEAN’s Purpose, Challenges, and Prospects 104 Assessing the SCS’s Centrality to ASEAN 106 Assessing ASEAN’s Coherence vis-à-vis South China Sea Disputes 109 Conclusion 111 Notes 114 ASEAN’s Failing Grade in the South China Sea 117 Flawed Declaration, Uncertain Code 118 The Ebb and Flow of ASEAN Unity 122 Indonesia and Singapore: Non-claimants but Key Players 124 Upcoming Tests 127 Notes 128 Malaysia’s “Special Relationship” with China and the South China Sea: Not So Special Anymore 131 A New Island Emerges 133 Chinese “Intrusions” and the Malaysian Response at Sea 135 A New Confrontation 138 Protest and the “Special Relationship” 140 ASEAN and Malaysia’s Broader Response 141 Conclusion 143 Notes 144 The US-China-Japan Triangle and the Concept of “ASEAN Centrality”: Myth or Reality? 148 Fourteenth Shangri-La Dialogue 2015, Singapore 149 Descriptions of the South China Sea Disputes 151 The US-China Rivalry and the “Thucydides Trap” 152 “Japan Is Back,” for What? 154 From the “Driver’s Seat” to “ASEAN Centrality” Through the “ASEAN Way” 157 Conclusion: Whither ASEAN? 159 Notes 161 The South China Sea Disputes: Some Blindspots and Misperceptions 163 Intra-ASEAN Disputes as a South China Sea “Blindspot” 164 Is Open Armed Conflict Inevitable? 167 The United States “Security Guarantee” 169 The Role of International Law 172 Notes 174 Southeast Asian Case Studies 176 Can Indonesia Fulfill Its Aspirations to Regional Leadership? 177 Indonesian Leadership in Historical Context 178 The ASEAN Security Community, 2003 179 Bali Democracy Forum, 2008 181 The Indo-Pacific Treaty, 2013 184 Indonesian Ambitions in Context and Retrospect 185 Indonesian Foreign Policy Under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo 187 Conclusion 188 Notes 189 Malaysia’s China Policy after MH370: Deepening Ambivalence amid Growing Asymmetry 190 The Beting Serupai Incidents and Malaysia’s Evolving South China Sea Policy 192 Impact of MH370 and Sabah Abductions 195 Assessment: A Deepening Ambivalence 197 Conclusion 202 Notes 202 Vietnam among the Powers: Struggle and Cooperation 207 Great Power Rivalry in Southeast Asia 208 Vietnam’s Strategy: Push and Pull Factors 209 Sino-Vietnamese Relations 211 Strategic Dynamics 214 Domestic Dynamics 217 Vietnam–Japan Relations 218 Conclusion 223 Notes 224 The Politics of “Struggling Co-evolution”: Trade, Power, and Vision in Vietnam’s Relations with China 228 Asymmetric Trade Dependence and Inclusion–Exclusion Logic 229 Triangular Dynamics 232 One World, Different Views 237 Conclusion 239 Notes 240 Australia 243 Why Values Matter in Australia’s Relations with China 244 Media 249 Surveillance 252 Notes 256 Less Geneva, More Jakarta: Assessing Australia’s Asia Pivot 258 The Asia “Pivot”...Down Under 261 China 263 Indonesia 265 Japan 266 Conclusion: More Pirouette than Pivot? 268 Notes 269 India 273 The New Fulcrum of Asia: The Indo-Japan Entente and the Rise of China 274 Evolution of the Indo-Japan Entente 276 The Spirit of the New Entente 283 The Failure of Beijing’s Efforts to Reassure China’s Neighbors 288 Notes 289 India’s New Leadership and East Asia 292 Election Overview: Domestic Drivers 293 Foreign Policy and the Indian Election 295 East Asia’s Economic Stake in India’s Resurgence 298 Indian-East Asian Synergies in Shaping the Regional Security Order 301 India’s Resurgence and the US Role in East Asia 303 India’s New Leadership and East Asia-II 305 India’s New Leadership and East Asia-III 309 Notes 312 From Look East to Act East: Transitions in India’s Eastward Engagement 315 High-level Visits and High-octane Announcements 316 From “Look East” to “Act East” 322 ASEAN: Not Secondary Anymore for India 324 Making Sense of the Transition 325 Conclusion 328 Notes 330 India-US Relations 335 A US Perspective 336 A Japanese Perspective 342 Do Abe and Modi Share the Same Dream? 343 India Balancing Japan and China? 345 Is the Obama–Modi Summit a Plus for Japan? 346 An Indian Perspective 350 Symbolism and the Role of Personalities 351 From “Chale Saath Saath: Forward Together We Go” to “Saajha Prayas-Sabka Vikas: Shared Effort; Progress for All” 351 The Substance 352 India–US Delhi Declaration of Friendship and the US–India Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region 352 Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal 353 Defense Cooperation 354 Cooperation in Counter-Terrorism Operations 355 The Economic Dimension 355 Climate Change and Emission Targets 356 The Sino-Pakistan Dimension 357 Conclusion 357 Notes 358 Index 360 Front Matter ....Pages i-xiii Asia’s Southern Tier (Gilbert Rozman, Joseph Chinyong Liow)....Pages 1-8 Reimagining Asia: From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific (Rory Medcalf)....Pages 9-28 Front Matter ....Pages 29-29 Multilateralism in East Asia: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (Jochen Prantl)....Pages 31-44 ASEAN-Led Multilateralism and Regional Order: The Great Power Bargain Deficit (Evelyn Goh)....Pages 45-61 Southeast Asia’s Developing Divide (Malcolm Cook)....Pages 63-76 Doomed by Dialogue: Will ASEAN Survive Great Power Rivalry in Asia? (Amitav Acharya)....Pages 77-91 Front Matter ....Pages 93-93 ASEAN is Neither the Problem Nor the Solution to South China Sea Disputes (Satu Limaye)....Pages 95-109 ASEAN’s Failing Grade in the South China Sea (Ian Storey)....Pages 111-124 Malaysia’s “Special Relationship” with China and the South China Sea: Not So Special Anymore (Scott Bentley)....Pages 125-141 The US-China-Japan Triangle and the Concept of “ASEAN Centrality”: Myth or Reality? (Kuroyanagi Yoneji)....Pages 143-157 The South China Sea Disputes: Some Blindspots and Misperceptions (Joseph Chinyong Liow)....Pages 159-171 Front Matter ....Pages 173-173 Can Indonesia Fulfill Its Aspirations to Regional Leadership? (Joseph Chinyong Liow)....Pages 175-187 Malaysia’s China Policy after MH370: Deepening Ambivalence amid Growing Asymmetry (Cheng-Chwee Kuik)....Pages 189-205 Vietnam among the Powers: Struggle and Cooperation (Mark Manyin)....Pages 207-227 The Politics of “Struggling Co-evolution”: Trade, Power, and Vision in Vietnam’s Relations with China (Truong-Minh Vu)....Pages 229-243 Front Matter ....Pages 245-245 Why Values Matter in Australia’s Relations with China (John Fitzgerald)....Pages 247-260 Less Geneva, More Jakarta: Assessing Australia’s Asia Pivot (Andrew O’Neil)....Pages 261-275 Front Matter ....Pages 277-277 The New Fulcrum of Asia: The Indo-Japan Entente and the Rise of China (John W. Garver)....Pages 279-296 India’s New Leadership and East Asia (Daniel Twining)....Pages 297-319 From Look East to Act East: Transitions in India’s Eastward Engagement (Rahul Mishra)....Pages 321-340 Front Matter ....Pages 341-341 A US Perspective (Daniel Twining)....Pages 343-348 A Japanese Perspective (Chiharu Takenaka)....Pages 349-356 An Indian Perspective (Rahul Mishra)....Pages 357-366 Back Matter ....Pages 367-372