International Handbook of Population Policies (International Handbooks of Population, 11)

This Handbook offers an array of internationally recognized experts' essays that provide a current and comprehensive examination of all dimensions of international population policies. The book examines the theoretical foundations, the historical and empirical evidence for policy formation, the policy levers and modelling, as well as the new policy challenges. The section Theoretical Foundations reviews population issues today, population theories, the population policies' framework as well as the linkages between population, development, health, food systems, and the environment. The next section Empirical Evidence discusses international approaches to design and implement population policies on a regional level. The section Policy Levers and Modelling reviews the tools and the policy levers that are available to design, implement, monitor, and measure the impact of population policies. Finally, the section New Policy Challenges examines the recurrent and emerging issues in population policies. This section also discusses prospects for demographic sustainability as well as future considerations for population policies. As such this Handbook provides an important and structured examination of contemporary population policies, their evolution, and their prospects. Foreword Acknowledgments General Introduction The Overall Context of Population Policies Outline of the Handbook References Contents Contributors Part I: Theoretical Foundations 1: Contemporary Population Issues History From Precarity to Growth Growth Reversal and Population Aging The Demographic Dividend Fertility Stalls and Extremely Young Societies Migration: Global and Local Conclusion References 2: Population Policies Framework Introduction Types of Population Policies Explicit and Implicit Policies Policy Platforms and Suites of Policies The Importance of International and Regional Agreements for Shaping Population Policies Goals and Strategies of Population Policies Bringing Demographic Dynamics into Alignment with Development Population Policies Following ICPD Population Policies in the MDGs and SDGs Eras Choice of Policy Levers High Population Growth Family Planning, Reproductive Health, and Women ́s Empowerment in High Fertility Countries Box 2.1: Population Policy in Bangladesh Harnessing the Demographic Dividend Box 2.2: Uganda ́s 2020 Population Policy: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend Population and the Environment Migration Discomfort with the ``Population ́ ́ in Population Policies Low Population Growth Box 2.3: Contrasting Approaches to Addressing Low Fertility Moving from Policies Addressing High Fertility to Low Fertility The Policy Process Policy Documents Policy Stakeholders and Institutions Box 2.4: Population Policy in Nigeria: Political Ambivalence and Weak Implementation Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Conclusion References 3: Classical Foundations of Past and Present Population Policies Introduction Before the Nineteenth Century: The Emergence of the Concept of Population and Political Power Power and Sovereignty Property and Conflict of Interest From Absolutism to Individualism The Malthusian Revolution: Malthus and Demo-Economic Growth The Consequences of Demographic Dynamics: Poverty or Increased Agricultural Production? Demo-Economic Growth The Malthusian Legacy and the Political Instrumentalization of Fertility Bourgeois Universalism and the Management of Demographic Behaviors The Standard of Living Theory The Roots of Current Population Policies Conclusion: Thinking About Population Policies Yesterday and Today References 4: Population, Burden of Disease, and Health Services Introduction Demographic Patterns and Trends Demographic Patterns and the Burden of Disease Aging and the Burden of Disease Urbanization and the Burden of Disease International Migration and the Burden of Disease Health Services Aging Populations Young Populations Demographically Transitioning Countries Urbanization Migration Conclusion: Looking Forward Appendix: 15 Diseases Which Accounted for the Largest Proportion of Burden of Disease in the Most Densely Populated Province/S... References 5: Population, Development, and Policy Demographic Transition The Transition Model Transition Theory Key Transition Trends The Demographic Dividend, Economic Growth, and Poverty The Demographic Dividend Modeling the Demographic Dividend Fertility Decline and the Demographic Dividend in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Theories of Fertility Decline Conventional Theories Revisionist Theories Policy Options for Enhancing the Demographic Dividend: The Role of Family Planning Programs Rationale Family Planning Program Components Program Impact on Contraceptive Use Controlled Experiments Natural Experiments Regression Analyses Program Impact on Fertility and Population Trends Conclusion References 6: Population Dynamics and the Environment: The Demo-climatic Transition Introduction Population Transitions and Environmental Changes Population Size and Growth Hyper-consumption and Production The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Changes Collapsing the Waves in a Tsunami: How Population Transitions and Environmental Changes Set the Stage for Population Policies ... Global Environmental Changes and Demographic Transitions: The Demo-climatic Transition Global Environmental Changes The Demo-climatic Transition Conclusion: Reframing Population Policies in the Demo-climatic Transition References 7: Population and Food System Sustainability Introduction The Concepts of Food Security and Food Sustainability Food and Nutrition Security: The Early Period The Tipping Point and the Advent of Sustainability Food Security and Sustainability: Two Complementary Concepts The Increasing Importance of International Trade and Globalization Population Dynamics and Food System Sustainability Population Dynamics and the Food Demand-Side Population Dynamics, Food Supply, and Changing Agro-Food Systems Resource Constraints, Climate Change, and Food Sustainability Policy Challenges Policies Managing Food Demand and Reducing Waste Policies Increasing Supply by Increasing Productivity Sustainably Policies Addressing Socioeconomic and Governance Challenges Measurement Issues and Early Warning Systems Conclusions References Part II: Empirical Evidence 8: Sub-Saharan Africa: Slow Fertility Transitions Despite Policy Efforts Introduction 1950-1980: The Difficult Acceptance of Family Planning and Population Policies Concerns About Population Growth Governments ́ Refusal to Adopt Family Planning Programs Data Collection for a Better Understanding of Population Dynamics 1980-2000: Toward a Consensus on the Benefits of Family Planning Despite the HIV/AIDS Epidemic Acceptance and Development of National Population Policies Family Planning and the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in 1980s and 1990s 1994 ICPD and More Attention to Reproductive Health 2000-2020: The Capturing of a Demographic Dividend Through an Integrated Policy Approach to Population Issues Stronger Commitment to Reducing Maternal and Child Mortality and Promoting Fertility Reduction In Search of a Demographic Dividend Cases Studies Kenya Ghana Rwanda Ethiopia Burkina Faso Niger Conclusion References 9: The United States and Canada: Demographic Realities and Policy Responses Introduction Mortality Levels, Trends, and Policy Responses Levels and Trends Policy Responses Fertility Levels, Trends, and Policy Responses Levels and Trends Policy Responses Immigration Levels, Trends, and Policy Responses Levels and Trends Policy Responses U.S. and Canadian Immigration Systems Historical/Early Immigration Policy in the U.S. and Canada Contemporary Immigration Policies in the U.S. and Canada Future Implications of Policy Responses Conclusion References 10: Population Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean: From Carmen Miró to the Montevideo Consensus Introduction The First Years: The Shining 1960s Early Adoption of Family Planning Other Developments: Data Collection and Research on Fertility and Family Planning Around Bucharest 1974 Demographic Changes and Family Planning Services The Introduction of the Population Policy Paradigm The Case of Mexico The 1980s and Early 1990s: A Lost Decade? The Case of Costa Rica The Emergence of a New Paradigm: Cairo 1994 The ICPD New Paradigm on Reproductive Health and Reproductive Rights The Institutional Effects of the ICPD for Population Policies Box 10.1: Mainstreaming Population Matters in Economic and Social Planning and in Poverty Reduction Efforts in Latin America a... The Montevideo Consensus: Going Beyond the ICPD The Montevideo Consensus: A New and Redefined Framework for Population and Development Some Achievements of the Montevideo Consensus From a Broader Population and Development Population Point of View: What ́s the Balance? Accomplishments and Missed Opportuniti... The Shift in the Age Structure and Population Aging: A Mix of Successes and Missed Opportunities Rapid Urbanization: How Political and Group Biases and Misconceptions Can Affect Good Policy Decisions Is There a Future for Population Policies in the Region? References 11: Demographic Features in West Asian and North African Countries: The Impact of Population Policies Introduction Population Growth and Demographic Transition Trends in Fertility Trends in Infant Mortality and Life Expectancy at Birth Age and Sex Distribution of the Population Age Distribution Sex Ratios Population Pyramids Population Growth in the Gulf Countries: The Role of Migration Population Programs and Policies Egypt Pre-1960s: The Development Strategy The 1960s: Implementation of the First Family Planning Program The 1970s: Family Planning and Economic Development 1981-2011: Thirty Years of the Mubarak Era Policies in the Second Decade of the Twenty-First Century Iran Pre-Islamic Revolution Post-Islamic Revolution Revival of Family Planning Program Concern for Low Population Growth Rate Tunisia Liberalization of Contraception and Abortion Raising of Legal Minimum Age at Marriage, Prohibiting Polygamy, and Instituting Divorce Improvement of Status of Women and Guarantee of Their Rights in the Society Through Access to Education and Paid Work A National Family Planning Program Within a More General Context of Economic Development and Women ́s Liberation The Demographic Dividend and the Issue of Celibacy Conclusion References 12: South Asia: Did Population Policies Trigger a Fertility Convergence? Introduction Population Policies of Central Asian Countries Population Policies of Southeast Asian Countries Population Policies of South Asia Countries Fertility Convergence in South Asia What Explains the Convergence in Fertility? What Next? Annexes References 13: Population Policies in East Asia and Oceania Introduction Population Policies: A Historical Overview from 1950 to 2000 East Asia Effectiveness of East Asia ́s Population Control Policies and the Switch to Pronatalism Oceania Recent Population Policies and the Legacy of Foregoing Policies East Asia Oceania Reappraisal of Recent Population Policies: Aging, Human Capital, and Migration Labor Market Policies Pension Policies Healthcare and Long-Term Care Systems Human Capital and Development Migration Internal Migration in China Immigration Policy in Australia and New Zealand Immigration Policy in East Asia Climate Migration Population Policies in East Asia and Oceania References 14: Europe: Low Fertility, Aging, and Migration Policies Introduction: European Demographic Challenges Population Policies in Europe: An Overview Policies Addressing Family and Fertility Policies by Models Policies by Family Policy Dimensions Have Family Policies Been Effective? Policies Addressing Population Aging Pensions Reforms Healthcare Active Aging Policies Addressing International Migration Welcoming Policies More Restrictive Policies Migration Crisis Policies to Attract High Skilled Immigrants Integration Policies The Way Forward Conclusions References 15: Population Institutions and International Population Conferences Introduction The Geopolitical Perspectives that Informed Population Debates International Population Conferences Population Conferences Prior to 1970 Population Conferences Since 1970 The ICPD Review Processes Related Conferences on Development, Environment, and Human Rights Other Relevant UN Conferences The London Summit on Family Planning The Transition to SDGs Demographically Specialized Conferences Primary Institutions and Complex Institutional Infrastructure Development of the UN Organizations Dealing with Population Population Assistance from the U.S. Other Bilateral Donors and Private Foundations Civil Society and Non-governmental Organizations Intergovernmental, Parliamentarian, and Issue-Focused Coalitions and Groups Conclusion References Part III: Policy Levers and Modelling 16: Data Collection for Population Policies Introduction Main Data Collection Operations Population and Housing Censuses Civil Registration Systems and Population Registers Demographic Surveys/Sample Surveys The Major Demographic Surveys (WFS, DHS, MICS) Overview of Available Data Contributions and Limitations of Survey Data New Data Collection Methods Hybrid Methodology for Population Estimates Big Data Promises and Pitfalls of a Data Revolution Conclusion References 17: Family Policies: How Do They Differ Around the World? Introduction Family Policies in High-Fertility Countries Family Policies to Reduce Family Size Family Policies to Increase Women ́s Status and Access to Paid Employment Family Policies for Reconciling Work and Family Roles in Sub-Saharan Africa Family Policies to Reduce Child Mortality and Increase Children ́s Well-Being Family Policies in Low-Fertility Countries Policies to Increase Family Size Policies to Increase Women ́s Labor Market Participation Policies to Increase Men ́s Involvement in Household Work and Childrearing Policies to Increase Children ́s Well-Being Summary and Conclusion References 18: Population and Health Policies in Urban Areas Introduction Urban Growth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries The Proliferation of Cities of All Sizes Growing Geographic Inequities Urban Definitions and Implications Managing Urban Growth Rapid Urbanization and Its Policy Implications Who Is in Charge? Strategic Urban Planning Capital City Relocation Box 18.1: Challenges in Capital City Relocation in LMICs Secondary City Planning Key Urban Population Policies Family Planning Box 18.2: Urban Programs Under the Urban Reproductive Health Initiative (URHI) Youth Aging Box 18.3: Ghana ́s Aging Population Migration Health and Socioeconomic Inequities in Urban Areas Rising Inequities and Issues of Measurement Visible Inequities and Invisible Populations Reducing Urban Health Inequities A Social Justice Issue Box 18.4: Reducing Urban Inequities in Latin America Through Innovative Transport Solutions Data Urban Governance Moving Forward References 19: Policies Needed to Capture Demographic Dividends Introduction The Dependency Ratios, Main Indicators of a First Demographic Dividend ́s Potential The Demographic Dividend The Dependency Ratios Policies That Need to Be Implemented for Countries to Benefit from a First Demographic Dividend Policies to Be Implemented to Sustain Economic Growth and Benefit from a Second Demographic Dividend Generating a Second Demographic Dividend Prospects to Achieve a First Demographic Dividend in North African and Sub-Saharan African Countries Conclusions References 20: Linkages Between Family Planning and HIV/AIDS Programs Introduction Global and Cross-National Links Between Family Planning and HIV Programs Positive Links Factors Inhibiting Links Malawi Nigeria Senegal Integration Conclusion References 21: Population Projections and Population Policies Introduction Preparing Population Projections Establishing the Base Preparing Projection Assumptions Normative Assumptions Analytic Assumptions Assumptions for Policy-Driven Scenarios Expert-Opinion Assumptions Processing Population Projections Projection Software Population Projections for the Design and Implementation of Population Policies Policy Options How Accurate Are Population Projections? Projections as a Guide for Policy Formulation and Evaluation Conclusion References 22: Population Policy Models Introduction to Models Population Models Modeling Fertility The UN Population Division ́s Fertility Modeling Population and Development Models Malthus and Neo-Malthusian Models The Coale-Hoover Model The BACHUE Models Demographic Dividend Models Population and Sector Impact Models Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development (RAPID) Family Planning and the Millennium Development Goals Model (FP-MDG) Impact Now Population, Food Security, and Climate Change Model Conclusion References 23: Funding of Population Policies and Programs Background Financing Population Surveys and Censuses Financing Family Planning Programs Low and Middle-Income Countries High-Income Countries Financing Pronatalist Policies Conclusion References 24: Measuring the Effectiveness, Efficiency, and Impact of Population Policies Introduction Key Definitions of the Different Levels of Measurement (Input, Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact) Evaluation Criteria First Evaluation Criterion: Relevance Second Evaluation Criterion: Effectiveness Box 24.1: Examples of Factors Contributing to the Decline in the Fertility Rate Third Evaluation Criterion: Efficiency Fourth Evaluation Criterion: Sustainability Fifth Evaluation Criterion: Impact How to Evaluate the Impact of Population Policies: Three Key Approaches Evaluating Impact by Using Correlation Analysis: The Taiwan Case Evaluating Impact Through Randomization and Counterfactuals: The Case of Matlab Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating Impact by Focusing on Human Agency and Determinism: The Case of Fertility Choices and Gender-Responsive Programming Box 24.2: The Case of Ethiopia Sixth Evaluation Criterion: Coherence Methodological Considerations: The Need for a Solid Conceptual Evaluation Framework and Thirteen Guiding Principles Guiding Principle #1: Any Framework Attempting to Evaluate a Population Policy Needs to Embed Population Policies Within a Bro... Guiding Principle #2: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Be Principled Guiding Principle #3: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Account for Both Biological and Behavioral Determinant... Guiding Principle #4: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Rest on the Use of Mixed Methods Guiding Principle #5: The Evaluation Approach Adopted Within the Scope of A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Re... Guiding Principle #6: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Rest on a Solid Theory of Change Whose Pathways of Cha... Guiding Principle #7: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Take Equity into Account Guiding Principle #8: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Will Needs to Systematically Assess the Four Dimensions Around ... Guiding Principle #9: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Will Needs to Assess Results at Multiple Levels and Over a Rath... Guiding Principle #10: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Should Focus on the Measurement Not Only of the Effects but Al... Guiding Principle #11: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Cannot Dismiss an In-depth Assessment of the Context/Environme... Guiding Principle #12: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Assess the Validity of the Assumptions Underlying the... Guiding Principle # 13: A Population Policy Evaluation Framework Needs to Be Gender-Transformative How to Measure Changes as a Result of a Population Policy: The Importance of Using Valid Indicators and Credible Benchmarks Benchmarking: How to Do It? Beyond the Boundaries of the Original Plans and Expected Objectives: How to Use Evaluation to Capture Unexpected and Unintende... Box 24.3: How Journalism Helped Assess Population Policies ́ Unexpected Results Box 24.4: Key Questions to Ask to Account for Population Policies ́ Unexpected Outcomes Conclusions References Part IV: New Policy Challenges 25: Population Aging and Public Policy Introduction How Did We Get Here? Demographic Transition and Population Composition Policies to Increase Fertility Population Aging and Health Policies The American Welfare State: Medicare and Medicaid ACA 10-Years Post Enactment Gender and Traditional Barriers to Health Coverage Population Aging and Policy Challenges in Less Developed Countries Conclusion References 26: Pension Policies The Interaction Between Pension Policies and Birth Rates Population Aging and Less Developed Countries Population Aging and Pay-As-You-Go Social Security Previous Literature Political Sustainability Social Security Reforms Raising the Normal Retirement Age: Canada vs. the U.S. Raising the Early Retirement Age Social Security Privatization Social Security Reform in Canada, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom The Reform Process The Politics of Raising Social Security Entitlement Ages The Equity of Social Security Reform The Link Between Income and Mortality Rates Social Security Reforms Reducing Political Risk through Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms Conclusions Appendix: Shadow Prices and Constraints Requirements for Financial Sustainability in Social Security Financing Application to the U.S. Social Security System An Alternative Model References 27: The Contraceptive Revolution Introduction Conditions that Led to Family Planning Programs A Framework for Analysis The Fundamentals of Family Planning Programs: AAAQ Availability Accessibility Acceptability Quality Departures from, and Threats to, the Voluntary Principle Payments, Benefits, and Penalties Targets Provider Bias Extreme Pressure Conclusion: Unfinished Business References 28: The Role of Abortion in Population Policies Introduction Global Abortion Trends Abortion, Fertility, and Measurement Innovations in Abortion Technologies The Harms of Policies Restricting Abortion Access Abortion Policy at the Global Level Abortion and the Global Health and Development Policy Agenda COVID-19 and Abortion Policy Changes National Abortion Policies: Implementation and Impact Countries with Stable, Liberal Policies Countries on an Uncertain Pathway Toward Expanded Abortion Access, with Many Obstacles and Setbacks Box 28.1: Abortion Legalization in Argentina Countries Stalled in Progress Toward Liberal Policies, But Where Clandestine Abortion Is Widely Practiced Box 28.2: Enabling Safe Abortion in a Legally Restrictive Context: Menstrual Regulation in Bangladesh Countries with the Most Extreme Policies, Enforced with Severe Penalties Conclusion: Toward Enlightened Abortion Policies References 29: International Migration Policies Introduction Trends in Migration Distribution of Migration The Demographic Appeal of Immigration to Receiving Countries Economic and Fiscal Reasons for Migration International Migration Theories Neoclassical Economic Theory New Economic Theories of Migration Network Theory Labor Market Segmentation Theory World Systems Theory Political Economy Theories Immigration Policy Perspectives Global Trends in Migration Policies Conclusion References 30: The Education Revolution Introduction Education and Fertility: The Link Impact of Education Policies on Fertility The Future of Educational and Fertility Development The Low Fertility-High Education Trap Conclusion References 31: Priority Groups in Population Policies Introduction Priority-Setting Frameworks for Identifying Priority Groups Current Priorities in the Development Landscape Addressing Gender in Population Policies Addressing Women in Population Policies Addressing Men in Population Policies Adolescents and Youth Fertility Mortality Migration Aging Populations Migrants Persons with Disabilities Other Population Groups Conclusion References 32: Demographic Dynamics, Poverty, and Inequality Introduction Demographic Transition, Poverty, and Inequality Fertility Mortality Infant Mortality Maternal Mortality Adult Mortality Summing Up Additional Issues Adolescent Fertility Aging Migrations and Spatial Location of the Population Results of Population Movements Urban Poverty Rural Areas International Migration and Remittances Effects of Remittances International Migration as an Investment of the Poor Policies Aimed at Poverty Reduction Approaches to Anti-poverty Programs The Turn in the 1980s Conditional Transfers Final Thoughts References 33: Bioethics, Sex Selection, and Gender Equity `From Chance to Choice ́ Box 33.1: Gender and Sex Selective Reproductive Technologies Prenatal Sex Selection Preconception and Pre-implementation Sex Selection Bioethical Debate of Sex Selection Regulation of Sex Selection Technology in the U.S., Europe, and Elsewhere Demographic Imbalances Sex Imbalances at Birth Missing Women Marriage Squeeze Gender, Health, and Political Concerns Public Policies to Balance the Scales Policy Evolution Policy Instruments Policy Impact Unintended Side Effects Side Effect 1: Too Powerful? Fertility Control Policies Give Rise to Sex Imbalances at Birth Side Effect 2: Too Proactive? Vietnam ́s Prompt Policy Response Triggered the Onset of Sex Selection Side Effect 3: Too Paternalistic? Political Masculinities in India Hinder Efforts to Counter Sex Selection Side Effect 4: Too Popular? South Korea ́s ``Success ́ ́ Story Gets Adopted in the Absence of Proven Policy Efficacy Population-Level Bioethics: A Call for Demographers References 34: Population and National Security Introduction Historical and Theoretical Foundations Population as Power Population as Pressure Demographic Changes and Their Effects on Conflict Composition Population Age Structure Youthful Transitional Mature Sex Ratio International Migration and IDPs Distribution: Urbanization Future Role in National Security References 35: Demographic Sustainability Introduction: SDGs and Sustainability of World Population World Population Prospects as Assessed in 2019 The World ́s Next 3.1 Billion People Global Trends: Decreasing Fertility and Increasing Life Expectancy The Driving Force of Demographic Transition The Narrow Pass for Demographic Sustainability Demographic Maturity and the Emergence of ``a Shrinking Society ́ ́ Sustainable Population Policy and Foreseeable Problems Restoring Replacement Level of Fertility Further Expanding the Lifespan The Role of Migration Conclusion: A Sustainable Future for the Human Population References 36: Prospects for Population Policies and Interventions Introduction Contemporary Population Issues Emerging Global Challenges Bioethical and Gender Issues The Ways Forward Prioritization of Policy Interventions Building a Policy Consensus Selection of Priority Constituencies Institutionalization and Funding of Policies Promotion of Evidence-Based and Research-Driven Policies Conclusion References General Conclusion New Opportunities and Challenges The Way Forward References Index