International Energy Agency. Energy Technology Perspectives 2014: Harnessing Electricity’s Potential

International Energy Agency, Paris, 2014, 376 pages, ISBN: 9264208003, ISBN-13: 9789264208001 Starting from the premise that electricity will be an increasingly important vector in energy systems of the future, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 (ETP 2014) takes a deep dive into actions needed to support deployment of sustainable options for generation, distribution and consumption. In addition to modelling the global outlook to 2050 under different scenarios for more than 500 technology options, ETP 2014 explores the possibility of pushing the limits in six key areas: Solar Power: Possibly the Dominant Source by 2050 Natural Gas in Low-Carbon Electricity Systems Electrifying Transport: How Can E-mobility Replace Oil? Electricity Storage: Costs, Value and Competitiveness Attracting Finance for Low-Carbon Generation Power Generation in India Since it was first published in 2006, ETP has evolved into a suite of publications that sets out pathways to a sustainable energy future in which optimal policy support and technology choices are driven by economics, energy security and environmental factors. Topic-specific books and papers explore particularly timely subjects or cross-cutting challenges. Tracking Clean Energy Progress provides a yearly snapshot of advances in diverse areas, while also showing the interplay among technologies. Supported by the ETP analysis, IEA Technology Roadmaps assess the potential for transformation across various technology areas, and outline actions and milestones for deployment. Collectively, this series lays out the wide range of necessary and achievable steps that can be taken in the near and medium terms to set the stage for long-term energy policy objectives, clearly identifying the roles of energy sector players, policy makers and industry. Next editions will examine the role of technology innovation to meet climate goals (2015) and urban energy systems (2016). Who will benefit from using ETP 2014? Past experience shows that ETP publications attract wide and varied audiences, including experts in the energy field (e.g. technology analysts and academics), policy makers and heads of governments, as well as business leaders and investors. This reflects the value of the series’ detailed and transparent quantitative modelling analysis and well–rounded commentary, which ultimately support high-level policy messages. Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 1 Table of Contents 4 Introduction 7 Foreword 7 Executive Summary 9 Acknowledgements 18 Part 1 Setting the Scene 23 Chapter 1 The Global Outlook 26 Global modelling results 30 Changes that alter previous energy projections 32 Sector development in the future energy system 36 Investment needs and fuel savings from transforming the energy system 52 Policy action to lead the transition 54 Chapter 2 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 60 Renewable Power 65 Nuclear Power 71 Natural Gas-Fired Power 73 Coal-Fired Power 75 Carbon Capture and Storage 77 Industry 79 Chemicals and Petrochemicals 81 Iron and Steel 83 Transport 85 Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicles 87 Biofuels 89 Buildings Energy Efficiency 91 Building Envelope 93 Appliances and Equipment 95 Co-generation and District Heating and Cooling 97 Smart Grids 99 Getting “Smart” about Staying on Line 101 Technology Overview Notes 110 Part 2 Harnessing Electricity's Potential 117 Chapter 3 Electrification of the Energy System 120 The increasingly essential and evolving role of electricity 123 Implications for environment, security and economy 125 Recommended actions for the near term 134 Chapter 4 Solar Power: Possibly the Dominant Source by 2050 138 Solar technologies in the electricity system: Recent trends 140 Future role of solar in the global electricity system 148 Recommended actions for the near term 163 Chapter 5 Natural Gas in Low-Carbon Electricity Systems 168 Natural gas in the ETP 2014 scenarios: A summary 169 Enabling gas-fired generation technologies to displace coal 180 Flexible gas-fired generation to support VRE generation 190 Recommended actions for the near term 201 Chapter 6 Electrifying Transport: How Can E-Mobility Replace Oil? 208 Electrifying transport modes: Technologies, time frames and opportunities 211 The LETMIX 225 The ETP 2014 2DS and 2DS-ET variant 230 Recommended actions for the near term 234 Chapter 7 Electricity Storage: Costs, Value and Competitiveness 240 Appeal of storing electricity 241 Applications for electricity storage 247 Performance and costs of electricity storage technology 253 Energy storage for system integration 268 Grid storage requirements in the 2DS 271 Recommended actions for the near term 273 Chapter 8 Attracting Finance for Low-Carbon Generation 278 Attracting financing resources 280 The two extremes: Regulated utilities and competitive markets 289 Intermediate solutions to promote low-carbon investments 296 Recommended actions for the near term 302 Chapter 9 Power Generation in India 306 India’s low-carbon growth strategy 307 The Indian power sector today 308 Mid-term goals for the power sector 318 Coal 319 Gas 325 Nuclear 327 Hydropower 330 Other renewable energy technologies 331 Recommended actions for the near term 337 Annexes -1 Annex A Analytical Approach 342 Annex B Abbreviations and Acronyms 353 Annex C Definitions, Regional and Country Groupings and Units 358 Annex D Lists of Figures, Tables and Boxes 369 Starting from the premise that electricity will be an increasingly important vector in energy systems of the future, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 (ETP 2014) takes a deep dive into actions needed to support deployment of sustainable options for generation, distribution and end-use consumption. In addition to modelling the global outlook to 2050 under different scenarios for more than 500 technology options, ETP 2014 explores the possibility of "pushing the limits" in six key areas: Solar Power: Possibly the Dominant Source by 2050; Natural Gas in Low-Carbon Electricity Systems; Electrifying Transport: How E-mobility Replace Oil; Electricity Storage: Costs, Value and Competitiveness; Attracting Finance for Low-Carbon Generation; and Power Generation in India. ETP 2014 purchase includes extensive downloadable data, figures and visualisations