Information Warfare and Organizational Decision-Making

Unconventional warfare is now conventional, requiring the military to organize in new ways that can rapidly respond to unprecedented battlefield challenges. Cutting-edge computing is helping military planners create original organizational structures able to adapt to ever-changing strategies and tactics. The computational techniques in this book provide practical solutions for organizing and commanding military operations, gathering intelligence, deploying antiterrorism measures, and securing information. The book covers artificial intelligence, game and control theory, and cognitive modeling, offering new insight into military psychology and training. Strategists can develop robust organizations that withstand and mitigate attack. They also learn how to neutralize enemy command and control to gain tactical advantage. ISBN-13: 9781596930797 1596930799 1 Contents 6 Introduction 10 An Organization’s Vulnerability to Attacks 11 The Road Map of the Book 13 References 17 Chapter 1 Know Thy Enemy: Acquisition, Representation, and Management of Knowledge About Adversary Organizations 20 Introduction to Organization Warfare 21 Organizational Intelligence 25 Leadership Analysis 31 Social Network Modeling and Analysis 33 Representative Analytic Process and Tools 38 Application Considerations 42 Endnotes 44 Chapter 2 Learning from the Enemy: Approaches to Identifying and Modeling the Hidden Enemy Organization 48 An Elusive Enemy 48 Domain of Organization Identification 50 Adversary Identification Research 52 Identification Focus: Definition of Command and Control Organization 55 From Structure to Strategy: Characterizing Behavior of a C2 Organization 57 Looking Beyond the Smoke Screen: Definition of Observations 61 Discovering the Dots: Finding Identities of Actors 64 Connecting the Dots: Discovering Patterns of Interactions and Activities 67 Behavior Learning and Simulating Enemy Activities 72 The Overall Process of Identifying Enemy Command and Control 74 Experimental Validation of the Organization Identification Process 76 References 78 Chapter 3 Who’s Calling? Deriving Organization Structure from Communication Records 82 The Tasks 83 CCR Structures and Their Graphical Representation 83 The Ali Baba Scenarios 85 Social Network Analysis 86 Previous Work Exploiting Time in Social Networks 90 The Windowing Down the Lines (WDL): The Algorithm 92 Simple Simulation Tests 100 Evaluation of WDL with the Ali Baba Datasets 101 The RSF Algorithm 105 References 107 Chapter 4 Means and Ways: Practical Approaches to Impact Adversary Decision-Making Processes 108 Planning Operations for Organization Impact 109 Inducing Effects for Defeat 119 Targeting for Effects 126 Application Considerations 129 Endnotes 130 Chapter 5 Breakdown of Control: Common Malfunctions of Organizational Decision-Making 134 Tardy Decision 136 Low and High Threshold 139 Excess of Timidity or Aggressiveness 140 Self-Reinforcing Error 141 Overload 143 Cascading Collapse 144 Misallocation of Authority 146 Lack of Synchronization and Coordination 147 Deadlock 150 Thrashing and Livelock 151 Acknowledgments 152 References 153 Chapter 6 Propagation of Defeat: Inducing and Mitigating a Self-Reinforcing Degradation 154 A Simple Model for Self-Reinforcing Decision Overload 155 Propagation of Disruptions in Organizations 160 Active Compensation 163 Dynamic Reorganization to Mitigate Malfunctions 165 Modeling Team Decision-Making: Decision Responsibility and Information Structure 166 Measuring Decision-Making Performance 169 Forecasting Decision Requirements 170 A Simulation of the Firefighting Example 170 Mitigating and Inducing Malfunctions 172 Acknowledgments 175 References 175 Chapter 7 Gossip Matters: Destabilization of an Organization by Injecting Suspicion 178 Is Gossip Good or Bad? 179 What Is Gossip? 181 Anonymous Information Exchange Networks 182 Hypothetical Organization, Part I: It’s All Bits 183 Hypothetical Organization, Part II: Miscreant Markets 184 TAG Model Overview 186 The Mechanisms of Trust 188 Gossip and Disruption 191 Giving and Taking 196 Acknowledgments 200 Endnotes 200 Chapter 8 Crystal Ball: Quantitatively Estimating Impacts of Probes and Interventions on an Enemy Organization 210 Organizational Analysis Approach 211 Actionable Implications 213 Main Methods 214 Developing Strategies Against Enemy Organizations 214 Test-Case Scenario: A Human-Guided Torpedo Attack on a U.S. Military Vessel in a Foreign Port 216 Analytical and Numerical Methods Underlying VDT and Related Approaches 226 Organization Modeling and Strategy Development with SimVision 227 Implications for Detecting and Defeating Enemy Organizations 230 References 230 Chapter 9 Organizational Armor: Design of Attack-Resistant Organizations 232 How Organizations Cope with Disruptions 233 Attack-Resistant Design Solutions 237 Organizational Design Formalism 240 Precursors for Superior Organizational Performance 241 A Computational Approach for Predicting Organizational Performance 244 Normative Design of Robust and Adaptive Organizations 247 Empirical Validation of Normative Design Methodology 249 Reverse-Engineering Organizational Vulnerabilities 252 Robust and Adaptive Designs of Attack-Resistant Organizations 255 Illustrative Example—Redesigning an Organization to Enhance Attack Resistance 261 References 271 About the Authors 276 Index 284 Information warfare; Artech House,Inc. This Volume Shows How To Mitigate Attacks On Organizational Decision-making And Predict The Impact Of Attacks On Robustness, Quality, And Timeliness Of An Organization. Moreover, This Book Explains How To Manage, In Real Time, The Processes Of Attacking Enemy Organizations Or Defending Friendly Ones. By Integrating Artificial Intelligence, Game Theory, Control Theory, Management Science, Organizational Science, And Cognitive Modeling, This Resource Helps Professionals Rethink The Relations Between Organization, Warfare, And Information. Know They Enemy : Acquisition, Representation, And Management Of Knowledge About Adversary Organizations / Ed Waltz -- Learning From The Enemy : Approaches To Identifying And Modeling The Hidden Enemy Organization / Kari Kelton [and Others] -- Who's Calling? Deriving Organization Structure From Communication Records / D. Andrew Disco Gerdes, Clark Glymour, And Joseph Ramsey -- Means And Ways : Practical Approaches To Impact Adversary Decision-making Processes / Ed Waltz -- Breakdown Of Control : Common Malfunctions Of Organizational Decision-making / Alexander Kott -- Propagation Of Defeat : Inducing And Mitigating A Self-reinforcing Degradation / Paul Hubbard, Alexander Knott, And Michael Martin -- Gossip Matters : Destabilization Of An Organization By Injecting Suspicion / Kathleen M. Carley And Michael J. Prietula -- Crystal Ball : Quantitatively Estimating Impacts Of Probes And Interventions On An Enemy Organization / Katya Drozdova And John Kunz -- Organizational Armor : Design Of Attack-resistant Organizations / David L. Kleinman [and Others]. Alexander Kott, Editor. Includes Bibliographical References And Index. Unconventional warfare is now conventional, and information warfare is a key to the new warfare. Security, law enforcement, intelligence, and military professionals can respond to today's unprecedented challenges by creating original organizational structures that are able to adapt to ever-changing strategies and tactics. This authoritative book offers practical solutions for organizing and executing organizational warfare, gathering intelligence, deploying antiterrorism measures, and securing information. This book presents a range of computational methods that help practitioners more effectively analyze, identify, and exploit vulnerabilities in the structure and decision-making processes of unknown or poorly understood enemy organizations.This practical volume shows how to mitigate attacks on organizational decision-making and predict the impact of attacks on robustness, quality, and timeliness of an organization. Moreover, this book explains how to manage, in real time, the processes of attacking enemy organizations or defending friendly ones. By integrating artificial intelligence, game theory, control theory, management science, organizational science, and cognitive modeling, this invaluable resource helps professionals rethink the relations between organization, warfare, and information. The contributors to this book offer practical solutions for organising and executing organisational warfare, gathering intelligence, deploying anti-terrorism measures and securing information.