بازارهای اطلاعاتی: راهی جدید برای تصمیم‌گیری

Information markets have proven to be accurate at predicting a range of events, that scholars are challenged to examine the potential for using this tool in other areas. This book brings together nine leading scholars to evaluate the applicability of information markets to the work of policymakers, non-profit organizations, and the private sector. Information markets have proven to be so remarkably accurate at predicting a wide range of events, from presidential elections to Oscar winners, that scholars are challenged to examine the potential for using this innovative tool in other areas. This book brings together nine leading scholars to evaluate the applicability of information markets to the work of policymakers, non-profit organizations, and the private sector Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event. They are used to predict a wide range of events, from presidential elections to printer sales. These markets frequently outperform both experts and opinion polls, and many scholars believe they have the potential to revolutionize policymaking. At the same time, they present a number of challenges. This collection of essays provides a state-of-the-art analysis of the potential impact of information markets on public policy and private decision-making. The authors assess what we really know about information markets, examine the potential of information markets to improve policy, lay out a research agenda to help improve our understanding of information markets, and explain how we might systematically improve the design of such markets. Introduction To Information Markets / Robert W. Hahn And Paul C. Tetlock -- Five Open Questions About Predictions Markets / Justin Wolfers And Eric Zitzewitz -- Designing Information Markets For Policy Analysis / John O. Ledyard -- Deliberation And Information Markets / Cass R. Sunstein -- Deliberative Information Markets For Small Groups / Michael Abramowicz -- Foul Play In Information Markets / Robin Hanson -- The Iowa Electronic Markets : Stylized Facts And Open Issues / Joyce E. Berg And Thomas A. Rietz -- A New Tool For Promoting Economic Development / Robert W. Hahn And Paul C. Tetlock. Editors By Robert W. Hahn And Paul C. Tetlock. Includes Bibliographical References And Index.