In Search of Economic Indicators: Essays on Business Surveys (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems)

The object of this collection of essays is to acquaint the English­ speaking reader with the work of the IFO Institute for Economic Re­ search, tlunich, in the field of business cycle surveys. These written surveys of about 10,000 businessmen in the West German economy collect information which is not otherwise contained in the official statis­ tics. The information in question primarily involves entrepreneurial judgements and anticipations (plans and expectations). These variables have proved to be very useful for economic diagnosis and prognosis. In the meantime, the survey methods developed by the IFO Institute have been adopted by 16 different countries throughout the world. The monthly business cycle surveys carried out by the EEC Commission, Brussels, in the industries of the member countries are also based to a large extent on the IFO methods. This is the first publication in English to furnish a comprehensive review of the IFO survey technique and the possibilities of utilization of this survey method in business cycle research. Efforts to develop new economic indicators on the basis of judgement and anticipation data have not yet terminated; many theoretical and methodical questions have still to be answered, and perhaps many have yet to be posed. Accordingly, the following collection of ten essays is not a final stock-taking but an interim report on several paths taken by the IFO Institute in its search for economic indicators. Possibly, some of these will later prove to have been a roundabout way. Front Matter....Pages N2-XV The Finger on the Pulse of the Economy....Pages 1-27 The Business Situation: On the Meaning of an Undetermined Survey Variable....Pages 29-45 Business Cycle Indicators from Qualitative Data....Pages 47-65 The “Business Climate” as Leading Indicator....Pages 67-79 Branch Indicators for the Future Demand of Firms....Pages 81-94 Forecasting Capital Expenditure with Plan Data....Pages 95-120 Expectations Curbing Growth....Pages 121-130 Satisfaction and Growth Expectations in Industry and Trade....Pages 131-155 Basic Research with Qualitative Data and with Anticipations....Pages 157-170 Integrating the IFO Business Surveys into the Framework of Entrepreneurial Variables....Pages 171-184 Back Matter....Pages 185-201