<I>The Street and the Ballot Box</I>: Interactions Between Social Movements and Electoral Politics in Authoritarian Contexts

"How do discontented masses and opposition elites work together to engineer a change in electoral authoritarian regimes? Social movements and elections are often seen as operating in different terrains - outside and inside institutions, respectively. In this Element, I develop a theory to describe how a broad-based social movement that champions a grievance shared by a wide segment of the population can build alliances across society and opposition elites that, despite the rules of the game rigged against them, vote the incumbents out of power. The broad-based nature of the movement also contributes to the cohesion of the opposition alliance, and elite defection, which are often crucial for regime change. This Element examines the 2018 Malaysian election and a range of cases from other authoritarian regimes across Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa to illustrate these arguments"-- Back cover Cover Title page Copyright page The Street and the Ballot Box: Interactions Between Social Movements and Electoral Politics in Authoritarian Contexts Contents 1 Introduction 1.1 The Much-neglected Interactions Between the Street and the Ballot Box 1.2 What Is the Puzzle? 1.3 Theoretical Contributions 1.3.1 Interactions Between Social Movements and Electoral Politics in Democracies and Non-democracies 1.3.2 Democratization Literature: Shining the Spotlight on Movements and Civil Society 1.3.3 What Causes Democratization? Contentious Politics versus Elite Pacts 1.3.4 Social Movement Literature: Nonviolent Resistance; Brokerage Between Movement and Party; Movement-rooted Political Coalition 1.4 Organization of the Element 2 From Stolen Election to Mass Mobilization and Regime Change 2.1 Mechanisms of Stolen Election Mobilization–Regime Change Interaction 2.1.1 From Stolen Election to Mass Mobilization 2.1.2 From Stolen Election-Mass Mobilization to Regime Change 2.2 Theoretical Discussion 2.3 Successful and Unsuccessful Cases of Revolutionary Change 2.3.1 “Bulldozer Revolution” in Serbia 2.3.2 “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine 2.3.3 “Rose Revolution” in Georgia 2.3.4 “People Power Movement” in the Philippines 2.3.5 Failed Revolutions in Azerbaijan and Belarus 2.4 Conclusion 3 Movement-rooted Regime Change: Broad-based Social Movements, Coalitional Politics, and Regime Change 3.1 From Movement to Opposition Alliance Formation and Regime Change 3.1.1 Theory-building Process Tracing 3.1.2 Causal Mechanisms 3.1.3 Theoretical Framework 3.2 Malaysia’s Political Landscape: Ethnic Politics, Multiparty Coalitions, and Mahathir’s Rule 3.2.1 Data and Methodology 3.2.2 Multiparty Coalitions, Cronyism, and the New Economic Policy 3.2.3 The Asian Financial Crisis, Anwar’s Dismissal, and the Reformasi Movement 3.3 Interactive Dynamics Between Social Movements, Electoral Coalitions, and Outcomes Leading Up to the 2004 General Election 3.4 The Bersih Movement and Regime Change in Malaysia 3.4.1 The Bersih Movement Elite-initiated Movement The Universality of Electoral Reform Strategic Choice of Nonviolence 3.4.2 Causal Mechanisms Bersih 1.0 and the 2008 Election Bersih 2.0 Bersih 3.0 and the 2013 Election Bersih 4.0 Bersih 5.0 and the 2018 Election Mahathir Appearing at Bersih 5.0 Wearing a Yellow T-shirt Bersih’s Support Base Credibility and Cohesion of the Opposition Coalition 3.4.3 Post-2018 Political Changes 3.4.4 Alternative Explanations 3.4.5 External Validity 3.5 Conclusion Interviews Conducted References Acknowledgments