How We Know What Isn't So : the Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life

Thomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believethat "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. Contents (v)......Page 5 Acknowledgments (vii)......Page 7 1. Introduction (1)......Page 8 Part One. Cognitive Determinants Questionable Beliefs (7)......Page 14 2. Something Out of Nothing: The Misperception and Misinterpretation of Random Data (9)......Page 15 3. Too Much from Too Little: The Misinterpretation of Incomple and Unrepresentative Data (29)......Page 35 4. Seeing What We Expect to See: The Biased Evaluation of Ambiguous and Inconsistent Data (49)......Page 55 Part Two. Motivational and Social Determinants of Questionable Beliefs (73)......Page 79 5. Seeing What We Want to See: Motivational Determinants of Belief (75)......Page 80 6. Believing What We Are Told: The Biasing Effects of Secondhand Information (88)......Page 93 7. The Imagined Agreement of Others: Exaggerated Impressions of Social Support (112)......Page 117 Part Three. Examples of Questionable and Erroneous Beliefs (123)......Page 128 8. Belief in Ineffective "Alternative" Health Practices (125)......Page 129 9. Belief in the Effectiveness of Questionable Interpersonal Strategies (146)......Page 150 10. Belief in ESP (156)......Page 160 Part Four. Where Do We Go from Here? (183)......Page 187 11. Challenging Dubious Beliefs: The Role of Social Science (185)......Page 188 Notes (195)......Page 198 Index (214)......Page 217 Pt. 1. Cognitive determinants of questionable beliefs. Something out of nothing : the misperception and misinterpretation of random data -- Too much from too little : the misinterpretation of incomplete and unrepresentative data -- Seeing what we expect to see : the biased evaluation of ambiguous and inconsistent data -- Pt. 2. Motivational and social determinants of questionable beliefs. Seeing what we want to see : motivational determinants of belief -- Believing what we are told : the biasing effects of secondhand information -- The imagined agreement of others : exaggerated impressions of social support -- Pt. 3. Examples of questionable and erroneous beliefs. Belief in ineffective "alternative" health practices -- Belief in the effectiveness of questionable interpersonal strategies -- Belief in ESP -- Pt. 4. Where do we go from here? Challenging dubious beliefs : the role of social science

Gilovich illustrates his points with vivid examples and supports them with the latest research findings in a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday ...

Biography

Thomas Gilovich is a professor of psychology at Cornell University and author of How We Know What Isn't So. He lives in Ithaca, New York.

Discusses the processes through which we become convinced of the validity of questionable or false beliefs such as special psychological powers and New Age health practices It is widely believed that infertile couples who adopt a child are subsequently more likely to conceive than similar couples who do not.