Heuristics and biases : the psychology of intuitive judgement

Judgment pervades human experience. Do I have a strong enough case to go to trial? Will the Fed change interest rates? Can I trust this person? This book examines how people answer such questions. How do people cope with the complexities of the world economy, the uncertain behavior of friends and adversaries, or their own changing tastes and personalities? When are people's judgments prone to bias, and what is responsible for their biases? This book compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer these important questions. Judgment Pervades Human Experience. Do I Have A Strong Enough Case To Go To Trial? Will The Fed Change Interest Rates? Can I Trust This Person? This Book Examines How, And How Well, People Answer Such Questions. The Study Of Human Judgment Was Transformed In The 1970s When Kahneman And Tversky Introduced Their 'heuristics And Biases' Approach. Their Approach Highlighted The Reflexive Mental Operations That Are Used To Make Complex Problems Manageable, And It Generated A Torrent Of Influential Research In Psychology - Research That Reverberated Widely And Affected Scholarship In Economics, Law, Medicine, Management, And Political Science. This Book Compiles The Most Influential Elements Of Psychological Research In The Heuristics And Biases Tradition. The Various Contributions Critically Analyze The Initial Work On Heuristics And Biases, Supplement These Initial Statements With Emerging Theory And Empirical Findings In Psychology, And Point To The Most Promising Areas Of Future Research On Judgment.--publisher Description (loc). Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy In Probability Judgment / Amos Tversky And Daniel Kahneman -- Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution In Intuitive Judgment / Daniel Kahneman And Shane Frederick -- How Alike Is It? Versus How Likely Is It? A Disjunction Fallacy In Probability Judgments / Maya Bar-hillel And Efrat Neter -- Imagining Can Heighten Or Lower The Perceived Likelihood Of Contracting A Disease: The Mediating Effect Of Ease Of Imagery / Steven J. Sherman [and Others] -- Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease Of Recall And Content Of Recall As Distinct Sources Of Information / Norbert Schwarz And Leigh Ann Vaughn -- Incorporating The Irrelevant: Anchors In Judgments Of Belief And Value / Gretchen B. Chapman And Eric J. Johnson -- Putting Adjustment Back In The Anchoring And Adjustment Heuristic / Nicholas Epley And Thomas Gilovich -- Self-anchoring In Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They Should / Boaz Keysar And Dale J. Barr -- Inferential Correction / Daniel T. Gilbert -- Mental Contamination And The Debiasing Problem / Timothy D. Wilson, David B. Centerbar, And Nancy Brekke -- Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion And Similarity Heuristics / Paul Rozin And Carol Nemeroff -- Compatibility Effects In Judgment And Choice / Paul Slovic, Dale Griffin, And Amos Tversky -- Weighing Of Evidence And The Determinants Of Confidence / Dale Griffin And Amos Tversky -- Inside The Planning Fallacy: The Causes And Consequences Of Optimistic Time Predictions / Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, And Michael Ross -- Probability Judgment Across Cultures / J. Frank Yates [and Others] -- Durability Bias In Affective Forecasting / Daniel T. Gilbert [and Others] -- Resistance Of Personal Risk Perceptions To Debiasing Interventions / Neil D. Weinstein And William M. Klein -- Ambiguity And Self-evaluation: The Role Of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions In Self-serving Assessments Of Ability / David Dunnig, Judith A. Meyerowitz, And Amy D. Holzberg -- When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma Of Unrealistic Optimism / David A. Armor And Shelley E. Taylor -- Norm Theory: Comparing Reality To Its Alternatives / Daniel Kahneman And Dale T. Miller -- Counterfactual Thought, Regret, And Superstition: How To Avoid Kicking Yourself / Dale T. Miller And Brian R. Taylor -- Two Systems Of Reasoning / Steven A. Sloman -- Affect Heuristic / Paul Slovic [and Others] -- Individual Differences In Reasoning: Implications For The Rationality Debate? / Keith E. Stanovich And Richard F. West -- Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation Of Subjective Probability / Amos Tversky And Derik J. Koehler -- Unpacking, Repacking, And Anchoring: Advances In Support Theory / Yuval Rottenstreich And Amos Tversky -- Remarks On Support Theory: Recent Advances And Future Directions / Lyle A. Brenner, Derek J. Koehler, And Yuval Rottenstreich -- Use Of Statistical Heuristics In Everyday Inductive Reasoning / Richard E. Nisbett [and Others] -- Feelings As Information: Moods Influence Judgments And Processing Strategies / Norbert Schwarz -- Automated Choice Heuristics / Shane Frederick -- How Good Are Fast And Frugal Heuristics? / Gerg Gigerenzer, Jean Czerlinski, And Laura Martignon -- Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, And Prosecutors: Exploring The Empirical Implications Of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors / Philip E. Tetlock -- Hot Hand In Basketball: On The Misperception Of Random Sequences / Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone, And Amos Tversky -- Like Goes With Like: The Role Of Representativeness In Erroneous And Pseudo-scientific Beliefs / Thomas Gilovich And Kenneth Savitsky -- When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking And Satisfaction Among Olympic Medalists / Victoria Husted Medvec, Scott F. Madey, And Thomas Gilovich -- Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives / Emily Pronin, Carolyn Puccio, And Lee Ross -- Assessing Uncertainty In Physical Constants / Max Henrion And Baruch Fischhoff -- Do Analysts Overreact? / Werner F.m. De Bondt And Richard H. Thaler -- Calibration Of Expert Judgement: Heuristics And Biases Beyond The Laboratory / Derek J. Koehler, Lyle Brenner, And Dale Griffin -- Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment / Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, And Paul E. Meehl -- Heuristics And Biases In Application / Baruch Fischhoff -- Theory-driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts And Probable Futures In World Politics / Philip E. Tetlock. Edited By Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 763-853) And Index. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, a series of papers by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman revolutionized academic research on human judgment.