راهنمای رشد اقتصادی. جلد اول

Introduction to the Series......Page 1 Contents of Volume 1A......Page 2 Preface to the Handbook of Economic Growth......Page 14 References......Page 17 Contents of Volume 1A......Page 19 Keywords......Page 31 Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations......Page 39 Keywords......Page 40 Introduction......Page 41 Endogenous growth: Infinite lifetimes......Page 42 Growth and the Solow model......Page 43 A one sector model of equilibrium growth......Page 45 Case I: One sector model with capital taxation.......Page 47 Case II: Physical and human capital: Identical technologies.......Page 48 Quantitative analysis of the effects of taxes......Page 49 A simple balanced growth result.......Page 51 Progressive taxes and transition effects.......Page 52 Innovation in the neoclassical model......Page 53 Notation......Page 54 Preferences.......Page 55 Balanced growth properties of the model......Page 56 Adding a non-convexity......Page 57 Empirical evidence......Page 58 A simple linear endogenous growth model......Page 65 Case 1: An Ak model......Page 69 Case 2: A two sector (technology) model......Page 72 Case 3: Aggregate vs. sectoral shocks......Page 73 Physical and human capital......Page 75 The opportunity cost view......Page 80 More on government spending, taxation, and growth......Page 82 Quantitative effects......Page 85 Concluding comments......Page 88 References......Page 89 Growth with Quality-Improving Innovations: An Integrated Framework......Page 92 Keywords......Page 93 A toy version of the Aghion-Howitt model......Page 94 A generalization......Page 96 Comparative statics on growth......Page 100 Linking growth to development: convergence clubs......Page 101 A model of technology transfer......Page 103 The role of financial development in convergence......Page 106 Linking growth to IO: innovate to escape competition......Page 109 The theory......Page 111 Empirical evidence and relationship to literature......Page 114 Theory......Page 117 The semi-endogenous solution......Page 118 Evidence......Page 119 Results......Page 120 Concluding remarks......Page 122 From Schumpeter to Gerschenkron......Page 123 A simple model of appropriate institutions......Page 125 Appropriate education systems......Page 126 Distance to frontier and the growth impact of higher education......Page 127 Empirical evidence......Page 130 Conclusion......Page 131 References......Page 132 Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development......Page 136 Keywords......Page 137 Introduction......Page 138 The benchmark model......Page 141 Two variations of the benchmark model: ``lab-equipment'' and ``labor-for intermediates''......Page 145 Limited patent protection......Page 147 Scale effects, economic integration and trade......Page 149 Innovation, imitation and product cycles......Page 152 Directed technical change......Page 155 Factor-biased innovation and wage inequality......Page 156 Appropriate technology and development......Page 161 Trade, inequality and appropriate technology......Page 165 Complementarity in innovation......Page 169 Financial development......Page 175 Endogenous fluctuations......Page 182 Deterministic cycles......Page 183 Learning and sunspots......Page 187 References......Page 191 From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory......Page 196 Abstract......Page 197 Keywords......Page 198 Introduction......Page 199 Historical evidence......Page 203 The Malthusian epoch......Page 204 Population growth and the level of income......Page 205 Fluctuations in income and population......Page 207 Population density......Page 208 Mortality and fertility......Page 209 The Post-Malthusian Regime......Page 210 Income per capita......Page 211 Income and population growth......Page 213 Growth in income per capita and population growth......Page 214 Fertility and mortality......Page 215 Industrialization and urbanization......Page 216 Industrialization......Page 217 Urbanization......Page 218 Early stages of human capital formation......Page 219 Growth of income per capita......Page 220 The decline in population growth......Page 223 Fertility decline......Page 225 Mortality decline......Page 227 Life expectancy......Page 228 Industrial development and human capital formation......Page 229 Developed economies......Page 230 England......Page 231 Continental Europe......Page 234 B. Human capital formation and inequality......Page 237 C. Independence of education reforms from political reforms in the 19th century......Page 239 International trade and industrialization......Page 241 The great divergence......Page 243 The fundamental challenges......Page 244 Mysteries of the growth process......Page 245 The Malthusian theories......Page 246 The Post-Malthusian theories......Page 247 Theories of modern economic growth......Page 248 Theories of the demographic transition and their empirical assessment......Page 249 The decline in infant and child mortality......Page 250 The rise in the level of income per capita......Page 252 The rise in the demand for human capital......Page 254 The rise in life expectancy......Page 255 Natural selection and the evolution of preferences for offspring's quality......Page 256 The decline in the gender gap......Page 257 The old-age security hypothesis......Page 259 Unified growth theory......Page 260 From stagnation to growth......Page 262 Central building blocks......Page 263 The basic structure of the model......Page 264 Preferences and budget constraints......Page 265 Optimization......Page 267 Technological progress......Page 269 The dynamical system......Page 270 A. The dynamics of technology and education......Page 271 The XX locus......Page 273 Conditional steady-state equilibria......Page 275 From Malthusian stagnation to sustained growth......Page 276 Main hypotheses:......Page 278 Complementary theories......Page 281 The rise in the industrial demand for human capital......Page 282 Mortality decline, the rise in life expectancy, and human capital formation......Page 283 Capital-skill complementarity and the emerging incentives for capitalists to support education reforms......Page 284 Alternative triggers for the demographic transition......Page 285 The emergence of human capital formation......Page 286 Alternative modeling of the transition from agricultural to industrial economy......Page 287 Human evolution and economic development......Page 289 Natural selection and the origin of economic growth......Page 291 Primary ingredients......Page 293 The main hypotheses......Page 296 Complementary mechanisms......Page 298 The evolution of life expectancy and economic growth......Page 299 Differential takeoffs and the great divergence......Page 301 Non-unified theories......Page 302 Unified theories......Page 304 Globalization and the great divergence......Page 305 Concluding remarks......Page 308 References......Page 310 Poverty Traps......Page 319 Keywords......Page 320 Introduction......Page 321 Poverty and riches......Page 327 A brief history of economic development......Page 328 Neoclassical growth with diminishing returns......Page 331 Convex neoclassical growth and the data......Page 336 Poverty traps: historical self-reinforcement......Page 341 Poverty traps: inertial self-reinforcement......Page 350 Bimodality and convergence clubs......Page 354 Testing for existence......Page 359 Model calibration......Page 361 Microeconomic data......Page 363 Nonconvexities, complementarities and imperfect competition......Page 364 Increasing returns and imperfect competition......Page 365 The financial sector and coordination......Page 367 Matching......Page 370 Other studies of increasing returns......Page 373 Credit markets, insurance and risk......Page 374 Credit markets and human capital......Page 375 Risk......Page 379 Credit constraints and endogenous inequality......Page 382 Institutions and organizations......Page 387 Corruption and rent-seeking......Page 388 Kinship systems......Page 391 Conclusions......Page 397 Lessons for economic policy......Page 398 Acknowledgements......Page 399 References......Page 403 Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth......Page 409 Abstract......Page 410 Keywords......Page 411 The question......Page 412 The argument......Page 413 Fundamental causes of income differences......Page 420 Economic institutions......Page 421 Geography......Page 423 Culture......Page 424 Institutions matter......Page 426 The Korean experiment......Page 428 The Reversal of Fortune......Page 431 The reversal among the former colonies......Page 432 Interpreting the reversal......Page 436 Economic institutions and the reversal......Page 438 Understanding the colonial experience......Page 440 Settlements, mortality and development......Page 441 Why do institutions differ?......Page 445 The efficient institutions view - the Political Coase Theorem......Page 446 The ideology view......Page 448 The incidental institutions view......Page 449 The social conflict view......Page 451 Sources of inefficiencies......Page 452 Hold-up......Page 454 Political losers......Page 456 Economic losers......Page 458 The inseparability of efficiency and distribution......Page 460 Comparative statics......Page 461 The colonial experience in light of the comparative statics......Page 462 The social conflict view in action......Page 463 Labor markets......Page 464 Financial markets......Page 465 Regulation of prices......Page 467 Political power and economic institutions......Page 469 Sources of political power......Page 472 Political power and political institutions......Page 473 A theory of political institutions......Page 475 Rise of constitutional monarchy and economic growth in early modern Europe......Page 476 Summary......Page 481 Rise of electoral democracy in Britain......Page 482 Summary......Page 486 Future avenues......Page 487 References......Page 488 Growth Theory through the Lens of Development Economics......Page 497 Keywords......Page 498 The aggregate production function......Page 499 The logic of convergence......Page 501 Physical capital......Page 503 Human capital......Page 508 Taking stock: returns on capital......Page 515 Is investment higher in poor countries?......Page 517 Does investment respond to rates of return?......Page 519 Access to technology and the productivity gap......Page 523 Human capital externalities......Page 525 Coordination failure......Page 527 Taking stock......Page 528 Government failure......Page 529 Excessive intervention......Page 531 Lack of appropriate regulations: property rights and legal enforcement......Page 532 The role of credit constraints......Page 533 Problems in the insurance markets......Page 536 Local externalities......Page 539 The family: incomplete contracts within and across generations......Page 542 Behavioral issues......Page 544 Calibrating the impact of the misallocation of capital......Page 546 A model with diminishing returns......Page 547 A model with fixed costs......Page 551 Taking stock......Page 558 An illustration......Page 559 Functional form issues......Page 562 Identification issues......Page 564 Empirical evidence......Page 565 Where do we go from here?......Page 566 References......Page 568 Growth Econometrics......Page 577 Abstract......Page 578 Keywords......Page 579 Introduction......Page 580 Stylized facts......Page 583 Data after 1960......Page 584 Differences in levels of GDP per worker......Page 585 Growth miracles and disasters......Page 587 The growth slowdown......Page 589 Does past growth predict future growth?......Page 590 Growth differences by development level and geographic region......Page 593 Stagnation and output volatility......Page 595 A summary of the stylized facts......Page 597 Growth dynamics: basic ideas......Page 598 Cross-country growth regressions......Page 600 Interpreting errors in growth regressions......Page 603 Convergence and initial conditions......Page 604 beta-convergence......Page 607 Robustness with respect to choice of control variables......Page 609 Identification and nonlinearity: beta-convergence and economic divergence......Page 610 Endogeneity......Page 611 Measurement error......Page 612 Effects of linear approximation......Page 613 sigma-convergence......Page 614 Evolution of the world income distribution......Page 615 Distribution dynamics......Page 618 Relationship between distributional convergence and the persistence of initial conditions......Page 620 Time series approaches to convergence......Page 621 Sources of convergence or divergence......Page 626 Statistical models of the growth process......Page 629 Specifying explanatory variables in growth regressions......Page 630 Parameter heterogeneity......Page 638 Nonlinearity and multiple regimes......Page 641 Time series approaches......Page 646 Panel data......Page 649 Event study approaches......Page 658 Endogeneity and instrumental variables......Page 659 Econometric issues II: Data and error properties......Page 662 Measurement error......Page 663 Missing data......Page 664 Cross-section error correlation......Page 665 Conclusions: The future of growth econometrics......Page 667 Key to the 102 countries......Page 673 Variables in cross-country growth regressions......Page 674 Instrumental variables for Solow growth determinants......Page 682 Instrumental variables for non-Solow growth determinants......Page 683 References......Page 685 Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences......Page 700 Abstract......Page 701 Introduction......Page 702 The measure of our ignorance......Page 704 Basic data......Page 706 Basic measures of success......Page 707 Alternative measures used in the literature......Page 709 Sub-samples......Page 710 Depreciation rate......Page 711 Initial capital stock......Page 712 Education-wage profile......Page 714 Years of education 2......Page 715 Hours worked......Page 716 Capital share......Page 717 Quality of schooling: Inputs......Page 719 Teachers' human capital......Page 720 Pupil-teacher ratios......Page 722 Spending......Page 723 Quality of schooling: test scores......Page 724 Experience......Page 727 Health......Page 729 Social vs. private returns to schooling and health......Page 731 Composition......Page 732 Vintage effects......Page 736 Further problems with K......Page 737 Sectorial differences in TFP......Page 738 Industry studies......Page 739 The role of agriculture......Page 740 Sectorial composition and development accounting......Page 745 Basic concepts and qualitative results......Page 748 Development accounting with non-neutral differences......Page 755 Conclusions......Page 758 References......Page 759 Accounting for Growth in the Information Age......Page 763 Abstract......Page 764 Keywords......Page 765 Introduction......Page 766 Faster, better, cheaper......Page 767 Semiconductor prices......Page 768 Constant Quality Price Indexes......Page 769 Computers......Page 770 Communications equipment and software......Page 771 Research opportunities......Page 774 Impact of information technology......Page 775 The role of information technology......Page 776 Output......Page 777 Capital services......Page 779 Labor services......Page 781 The American growth resurgence......Page 785 Production possibility frontier......Page 787 Sources of growth......Page 788 Contributions of IT output......Page 790 Total factor productivity......Page 794 Output growth......Page 796 Research opportunities......Page 798 Introduction......Page 799 Human capital......Page 800 Solow's surprise......Page 801 Radical departure......Page 802 The Rees Report......Page 803 Introduction......Page 804 Comparisons of output, input, and productivity......Page 807 Comparisons of capital and labor quality......Page 811 Investment in information technology......Page 816 Comparisons without growth accounts......Page 823 Convergence......Page 824 Conclusions......Page 825 Economics on internet time......Page 826 Acknowledgements......Page 827 References......Page 828 Further reading......Page 835 Externalities and Growth......Page 836 Keywords......Page 837 A brief guide to externalities in growth models......Page 838 Models with knowledge externalities......Page 839 Models with knowledge externalities and new-good externalities......Page 840 Models with new-good externalities......Page 841 Models with no externalities......Page 842 The world-wide growth slowdown......Page 844 Beta convergence in the OECD......Page 846 Low persistence of growth rate differences......Page 848 Investment rates and growth vs. levels......Page 850 R&D and TFP......Page 852 Models with common growth driven by international knowledge spillovers......Page 854 R&D investment and relative productivity......Page 855 Modeling growth in the world technology frontier......Page 858 Determinants of R&D investment......Page 862 Calibration......Page 864 The benefits of engagement......Page 873 Conclusion......Page 875 Acknowledgements......Page 876 References......Page 878 Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence......Page 881 Keywords......Page 882 Introduction......Page 883 What is financial development?......Page 885 Producing information and allocating capital......Page 886 Monitoring firms and exerting corporate governance......Page 888 Risk amelioration......Page 891 Pooling of savings......Page 895 Easing exchange......Page 896 The theoretical case for a bank-based system......Page 897 The theoretical case for a market-based system......Page 899 Countervailing views to bank-based vs. market-based debate......Page 902 Finance, income distribution, and poverty......Page 903 Evidence on finance and growth......Page 904 Goldsmith, the question, and the problems......Page 905 More countries, more controls, and predictability......Page 906 Adding stock markets to cross-country studies of growth......Page 909 Using instrumental variables in cross-country studies of growth......Page 913 Panel, time-series, and case-studies of finance and growth......Page 915 The dynamic panel methodology......Page 916 Dynamic panel results on financial intermediation and growth......Page 917 Dynamic panel results and stock market and bank development......Page 920 Time series studies......Page 921 Novel case-studies......Page 923 Industry level analyses......Page 926 Firm level analyses of finance and growth......Page 930 Are bank- or market-based systems better? Evidence......Page 934 Finance, income distribution, and poverty alleviation: evidence......Page 936 Conclusions......Page 937 References......Page 939 Human Capital and Technology Diffusion......Page 951 Keywords......Page 952 Introduction......Page 953 Variations on the Nelson-Phelps model......Page 956 Some microfoundations based on the diffusion model of Barro and Sala-i-Martin......Page 960 A nested specification......Page 962 Measurement of total factor productivity......Page 964 Model specification......Page 969 Base specification......Page 970 Conditioning on country characteristics......Page 972 Model forecasting......Page 975 Negative catch-up countries......Page 976 Conclusion......Page 980 References......Page 981 Growth Strategies......Page 983 Keywords......Page 984 Introduction......Page 985 What we know that (possibly) ain't so......Page 989 The indeterminate mapping from economic principles to institutional arrangements......Page 994 In practice, growth spurts are associated with a narrow range of policy reforms......Page 1005 The policy reforms that are associated with these growth transitions typically combine elements of orthodoxy with unorthodox institutional practices......Page 1009 Institutional innovations do not travel well......Page 1010 Sustaining growth is more difficult than igniting it, and requires more extensive institutional reform......Page 1012 A two-pronged growth strategy......Page 1013 Government failures......Page 1014 Market failures......Page 1015 Where to start?......Page 1018 An institution building strategy to sustain growth......Page 1021 Concluding remarks......Page 1025 References......Page 1026 National Policies and Economic Growth: A Reappraisal......Page 1031 Keywords......Page 1032 Theoretical models that predict strong policy effects......Page 1033 Models that predict small policy effects on growth......Page 1042 Empirics......Page 1048 Some empirical caveats......Page 1049 New empirical work......Page 1052 Policy episodes and transition paths......Page 1066 Institutions versus policies......Page 1070 References......Page 1072 Author Index......Page 1076 Subject Index......Page 1112