Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations (DEVELOPMENTS IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES)

The proceedings of this workshop provide a valuable review of the methodologies of climate observations during the past 150 years, together with a summary of their findings, and a description of the difficulties inherent in their interpretation. In addition the volume reviews the use of climate model simulations of greenhouse-gas-induced equilibrium and nonequilibrium change. Finally, the contributed papers consider the methodologies of climate change detection by comparison of model simulations and climate observations, a summary of findings, and a description of what should be done to detect GHG-induced climate change. The volume will be of particular interest to researchers and students in the fields of meteorology, atmospheric science, oceanography, global change and climate impact assessement. Scientists in related fields will find much of value also Content: Further Titles in this Series Page ii Front Matter Page iii Copyright page Page iv Preface Page ix Acknowledgements Page xi Michael E. Schlesinger Inside Front Cover Pages xii-xiii Participants Pages xv-xix A Statistical Intercomparison of Temperature and Precipitation Predicted by Four General Circulation Models with Historical Data Pages 3-16 Stanley L. Grotch Comparing and Contrasting Holocene and Eemian Warm Periods with Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Warming Pages 17-33 Michael C. MacCracken, John Kutzbach Utilization of Paleoclimate Results to Validate Projections of a Future Greenhouse Warming Pages 35-45 Thomas J. Crowley The Equilibrium Response to Doubling Atmospheric CO 2 Pages 49-61 John F.B. Mitchell Computer Experiments with a Coarse-Grid Hydrodynamic Climate Model Pages 63-68 Georgi L. Stenchikov Climate Variability and Climate Change Pages 69-78 D. Rind Characteristics of Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean CO 2 Sensitivity Experiments with Different Ocean Formulations Pages 79-110 Warren M. Washington, Gerald A. Meehl The Southern Oscillation in a Coupled GCM: Implications for Climate Sensitivity and Climate Change Pages 111-128 Gerald A. Meehl Climatic Response to a Gradual Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Pages 129-136 R.J. Stouffer, S. Manabe, K. Bryan Preliminary Assessment of the Performance of a Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Pages 137-150 Ulrich Cubasch Marine and Land Temperature Data Sets: A Comparison and a Look at Recent Trends Pages 153-172 P.D. Jones, T.M.L. Wigley, G. Farmer Worldwide Surface Temperature Trends Since the Mid-19th Century Pages 173-193 D.E. Parker, C.K. Folland Climate Trends, the U.S. Drought of 1988, and Access to Data Pages 195-209 ROY L. Jenne Regional Greenhouse Climate Effects Pages 211-229 J. Hansen, D. Rind, A. Delgenio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, T. Karl Changes in Tropospheric and Stratospheric Global Temperatures, 1958-1988 Pages 231-247 J.K. Angell Representativeness of a 63-Station Network for Depicting Climate Changes Pages 249-259 Kevin E. Trenberth, JERRY G. OLSON Soil Moisture Content with Global Warming Pages 261-268 K.YA. Vinnikov Some Characteristics of Wet and Dry Regimes in the Contiguous United States: Implications for Climate Change Detection Efforts Pages 269-296 H.F. Diaz Data on Present-Day Precipitation Changes in the Extratropical Part of the Northern Hemisphere Pages 297-310 P.YA. Groisman Monitoring Tropospheric Water Vapor Changes Using Radiosonde Data Pages 311-327 W.P. Elliott, M.E. Smith, J.K. Angell Observational Evidence of Changes in Global Snow and Ice Cover Pages 329-345 R.G. Barry Observations of Long-Term Tide-Gauge Records for Indications of Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Pages 347-367 V. Gornitz, A. Solow The Southern Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Temperature Variability Pages 369-376 Chester F. Ropelewski, Michael S. Halpert Recent Climate Changes in the Northern Hemisphere Pages 377-390 Kevin E. Trenberth Pre-Instrumental Climate: How Has Climate Varied During the Past 500 Years? Pages 391-410 R.S. Bradley The Effects of Solar Variability on Climate Pages 413-428 M.I. Hoffert The Volcanic Contribution to Climate Change of the Past 100 Years Pages 429-443 Alan Robock Chaos, Spontaneous Climatic Variations and Detection of the Greenhouse Effect Pages 445-453 Edward N. Lorenz Natural Climate Variability in a Coupled Model Pages 457-469 Stephen E. Zebiak, Mark A. Cane Internally Generated Natural Variability of Global-Mean Temperatures Pages 471-482 T.M.L. Wigley, S.C.B. Raper Multivariate Statistical Assessments of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change and Comparison with Results from General Circulation Models Pages 483-503 Christian-D. Schönwiese On the Statistical Comparison of Climate Model Output and Climate Data Pages 505-510 Andrew R. Solow Multivariate Methods for the Detection of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change Pages 511-536 B.D. Santer, T.M.L. Wigley, P.D. Jones, M.E. Schlesinger On Greenhouse Gas Signal Detection Strategies Pages 537-558 T.P. Barnett, M.E. Schlesinger, Xingjian Jiang An Attempt to Detect the Greenhouse-Gas Signal in a Transient GCM Simulation Pages 559-568 T.P. Barnett Working Group 1: Observations Pages 571-582 (CHAIRMAN), K. Trenberth, J. Angell, R. Barry, R. Bradley, H. Diaz, W. Elliott, R. Etkins, C. Folland, R. Jenne, P. Jones, T. Karl, S. Levitus, A. Oort, D. Parker, C. Ropelewski, K. Vinnikov, T. Wigley Working Group 2: A Critical Appraisal of Model Simulations Pages 583-591 M. MacCracken, U. Cubasch, W.L. Gates, L.D. Harvey, B. Hunt, R. Katz, E. Lorenz, S. Manabe, B. McAvaney, N. McFarlane, G. Meehl, V. Meleshko, A. Robock, G. Stenchikov, R. Stouffer, W.-C. Wang, W. Washington, R. Watts, S. Zebiak Working Group 3: Greenhouse Signal Detection Pages 593-602 T. Barnett, H. Ellsaesser, P.YA. Groisman, S. Grotch, G. Jenkins, D. Karoly, M. Riches, B. Santer, C. Schönwiese, K. Vinnikov, F. Zwiers Index Pages 603-615 Edited By M. E. Schlesinger. Papers From A Workshop On Greenhouse-gas-induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal Of Simulations And Observations, Held At The University Of Massachusetts, Amherst, May 8-12, 1989. Includes Bibliographical References And Index.