Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks : Transmission Channels to the South African Economy

This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy. Front Matter ....Pages i-xliv Introduction (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 1-25 Front Matter ....Pages 27-27 Heightened Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on the South African Economy: The Role of Credit Conditions and the Capital Flows Channels (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 29-50 UK Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock and the South African Economy: Inferences from the Exchange Rate, Exports and Inflation Channels (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 51-72 Foreign GDP Growth Uncertainty Shocks and the South African Economy (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 73-86 Interaction Between Economic Policy and GDP Growth Uncertainties: Implications for South African GDP Growth (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 87-109 Front Matter ....Pages 111-111 Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Exports and GDP Growth Dynamics (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 113-130 The Real Exchange Rate and Sectoral Gross Value Added: The Role of Foreign Demand and Economic Policy Uncertainty (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 131-142 Real Exchange Rate Depreciation Shock and Real Investment Growth: The Balance Sheet Channel (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 143-157 Rand Depreciation and Investment Dynamics: The Role of Imported Intermediate Inputs (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 159-168 Exchange Rate Depreciation Shocks and Redistribution of Income: The Marginal Propensity to Consume Channel (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 169-185 Is Macroeconomic Uncertainty a Source of Subdued and Volatile Economic Recovery? (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 187-208 Real Exchange Rate and Implications for Monetary Policy (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 209-221 Domestic Macroeconomic Uncertainty: What Are the Financial Stability Effects? (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 223-248 Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty, Lending Rate Margins and Credit Growth (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 249-268 Front Matter ....Pages 269-269 The Macroeconomic Effects of the Expected US Monetary Policy Normalisation Shock on the South African Economy (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 271-298 Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatilities: Implications for Output Dynamics (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 299-315 Capital Flow Episodes and Real Economic Costs of Flow Episodes (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 317-331 Transitory and Permanent Components of the Exchange Rate Volatility (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 333-358 Does the Rand Per US Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility Impact on Net Asset Purchases by Non-residents? (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 359-381 Business Confidence Shocks and the Relevance of Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Channels (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 383-399 Domestic Macroeconomic Uncertainty Shock and the Consumer Confidence Channel (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 401-408 Asymmetrical Real Exchange Rate Risk Effects on South African and US Exports Growth (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 409-421 Exchange Rate Depreciation, Risk and Exports: A Counterfactual VAR Approach (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 423-443 South African Exporters and the Pricing-to-Market Strategy (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 445-458 Does the Inflation Threshold Lead to Asymmetric Effects of the Rand Per US Dollar Exchange Rate Changes on Inflation? (Eliphas Ndou, Nombulelo Gumata, Mthuli Ncube)....Pages 459-470 Back Matter ....Pages 471-484 Annotation This text examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy's eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth