هیاهوی آینده: افسانه‌های تغییر فناوری

conventional Wisdom Says That Technology Change Is Exponential, Giving Us An Ever-growing Number Of Exciting New Products. According To This View, We Live In An Unprecedented Golden Age Of Technological Expansion. Not So, According To Future Hype. author Bob Seidensticker, Who Has An Intimate Understanding Of Technology On Professional, Theoretical, And Academic Levels, Asserts That Today's Achievements Are Not Unprecedented. He Explodes Nine Major Myths Of Technology, Including Change Is Exponential, Products Are Adopted Faster, And The Internet Changes Everything, And He Argues That We Can't Control Technology Change Unless We Know How It Changes. Examining The History Of Tech Hype, Seidensticker Uncovers The Inaccuracies And Misinterpretations That Characterize The Popular View Of Technology, Explaining How And Why This View Has Been Created, And Showing How Technology Change Actually Works. He Concludes With Hype Vaccine, Specific Strategies To Become A Shrewder Technology Adopter. library Journal differentiating Between Technological Reality And Illusion Is Difficult When The Overwhelming Majority Of Information Available Is Produced By Spin Doctors. With This Book, Computer Industry Veteran Seidensticker Fires A Much-deserved Shot Across The Bow Of These Technology Spin Doctors-be They Marketers, Journalists, Academics, Or Public Technology Enthusiasts-investigating The Interplay Between Technology And Society By Looking Back Through Time At Specific Technologies And Patterns Of Behavior With Which They Are Associated. He Challenges Nine High-tech Myths (e.g., Exponential Rates Of Change, Technology Adoption Rates, Invention Gestation Times) By Examining The Facts And Posing Probing Questions. In The End, He Develops A More Accurate Model Of Technology Change Than The One With Which He Began, A Model That Can Be Used To Make Technology Purchasing Decisions. Unlike Other Books On This Topic, Seidensticker's Is Not Dense, Dry, And Boring. It Is Light, Entertaining, And Thought-provoking Whether You Fear, Abhor, Or Worship Technology. Strongly Recommended For All Libraries.-james A. Buczynski, Seneca Coll. Of Applied Arts & Technology, Toronto Copyright 2006 Reed Business Information. Contents......Page 8 Preface......Page 10 Introduction: Leveling the Exponential Curve......Page 14 PART I: THE WAYS WE SEE TECHNOLOGY INCORRECTLY......Page 20 1 The Birthday-Present Syndrome......Page 22 2 The Perils of Prediction......Page 35 3 The Unintended Wager......Page 49 4 If It Ain’t Broke, Be Grateful......Page 62 5 More Powerful Than a Locomotive......Page 76 6 Faster Than a Speeding Bullet......Page 93 7 Leap Tall Buildings in a Single Bound......Page 106 8 Corrective Lenses......Page 122 PART II: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE . . .......Page 134 9 For Better or For Worse......Page 136 10 Playing with Matches......Page 152 11 Fear and Anxiety......Page 167 12 Technologies That Touch Us......Page 180 13 Innovation Stimulation......Page 198 14 What’s Mine Is Mine......Page 214 Conclusion: Vaccinate Against the Hype......Page 226 Notes......Page 236 Acknowledgments......Page 252 About the Author......Page 266 B......Page 254 C......Page 255 E......Page 256 H......Page 257 K......Page 258 M......Page 259 O......Page 260 S......Page 261 T......Page 262 W......Page 264 Z......Page 265 Annotation. Conventional wisdom says that technology is the greatest new growth frontier, coupling infinite potential with an ever-growing number of faster, more efficient, and more reliable products and instruments. According to this view, we live in an unprecedented golden era of technological expansion. Future Hype argues the opposite. Author Bob Seidensticker, who has an intimate understanding of technology on professional, theoretical, and academic levels, asserts that today s technological achievements are neither fast nor progressive. He explodes seven major myths of technology, including Change is exponential, Product cycle time is decreasing, and Today s high-tech price reductions are unprecedented. Examining the history of tech hype, Seidensticker skillfully uncovers the inaccuracies and misinterpretations that characterize the popular view of technology, explaining how and why this view has been created, and offering specific strategies for measuring progress against what is actually known rather than against what its boosters have promised Everyone knows that today's rate of technological change is unprecedented. With technological breakthroughs from the Internet to cell phones to digital music and pictures, everyone knows that the social impact of technology has never been as profound. But everyone is wrong. In fact, the pace of change isn't notably faster than in times past and most “revolutionary” technologies are just refinements of past breakthroughs. Using dozens of entertaining examples, high-tech industry veteran Bob Seidensticker debunks nine technology myths, proving that: The rate of change is not exponential (myth #1), Important new products don't arrive any faster than they ever have (myth #3), The Internet doesn't really change everything (myth #8), and much more. Future Hype exposes the hidden costs of technology and will help both consumers and businesses take a shrewder position when the next 'essential' innovation is trotted out Contents 8 Preface 10 Introduction: Leveling the Exponential Curve 14 PART I: THE WAYS WE SEE TECHNOLOGY INCORRECTLY 20 1 The Birthday-Present Syndrome 22 2 The Perils of Prediction 35 3 The Unintended Wager 49 4 If It Ain’t Broke, Be Grateful 62 5 More Powerful Than a Locomotive 76 6 Faster Than a Speeding Bullet 93 7 Leap Tall Buildings in a Single Bound 106 8 Corrective Lenses 122 PART II: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE . . . 134 9 For Better or For Worse 136 10 Playing with Matches 152 11 Fear and Anxiety 167 12 Technologies That Touch Us 180 13 Innovation Stimulation 198 14 What’s Mine Is Mine 214 Conclusion: Vaccinate Against the Hype 226 Notes 236 Acknowledgments 252 About the Author 266 Index 254 A 254 B 254 C 255 D 256 E 256 F 257 G 257 H 257 I 258 J 258 K 258 L 259 M 259 N 260 O 260 P 261 Q 261 R 261 S 261 T 262 U 264 V 264 W 264 X 265 Y 265 Z 265 Everyone knows that today's rate of technological change is unprecedented. With technological breakthroughs from the Internet to cell phones to digital music and pictures, everyone knows that the social impact of technology has never been as profound. Future Hype surveys the past few hundred years to show that many of the technologies we now take for granted transformed society in far more dramatic ways than recent developments so often touted as unparalleled and historic. Seidensticker exposes the hidden costs of technology and will help both consumers and businesses take a shrewder position when the next'essential'innovation is trotted out. Argues that today's technological achievements are not as fast or progressive as popularly believed, challenging nine critical misperceptions in the areas of exponential change, product cycle time, and high-tech price reductions, in an account that offers specific strategies for measuring progress using proven methods. Original.