From Lambs to Lions : Future Security Relationships in a World of Biological and Nuclear Weapons

In From Lambs to Lions, Thomas Preston examines current trends in the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons capabilities, know-how, and technologies for both state and non-state actors-and then projects these trends over the coming ten to fifteen years to assess how they might impact existing security relationships between states. For answers to questions about security in the face of biological and nuclear weapons proliferation, and for some potentially surprising reassurances, this clear and informative book will be invaluable. While many books discuss how nations can prevent the proliferation of biological and nuclear weapons, this unique and controversial volume begins with the premise that these weapons will certainly multiply despite our desperate desire to slow this process. How worried should we be and what should we do? In From Lambs to Lions, Thomas Preston examines current trends in the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons capabilities, know-how, and technologies for both state and non-state actors-and then projects these trends over the coming ten to fifteen years to assess how they might impact existing security relationships between states. With a new preface to the paperback edition, Thomas Preston also addresses the threat of biological and nuclear weapons proliferation that faces the Obama administration. How might a nuclear North Korea or Iran constrain U.S. freedom of action in its foreign or military policies? How might U.S. security be impacted by the current biotechnical revolution and spread of bioweapons know-how to opponents? How might terror groups like Al Qaeda make use of such weapons in future attacks against the United States or its allies around the world? These are the central, most fundamental questions facing American security policy over the coming decades, and to ignore them is to put ourselves at risk for new 9/11-style surprises. For answers, and for some potentially surprising reassurances, this clear and informative book will be invaluable. "While many books discuss how nations can prevent the proliferation of biological and nuclear weapons, this unique and controversial volume begins with the premise that these weapons will certainly multiply despite our desperate desire to slow the process. How worried should we be and what should we do? In From Lambs to Lions Thomas Preston examines current trends in the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons capabilities, know-how, and technologies for both state and nonstate actors - and then projects those trends over the coming ten to fifteen years to assess how they might impact existing security relationships between states. Nuclear and biological weapons create a new environment where weaker actors will increasingly be able to inflict immense harm or deter more powerful state opponents. To ignore this reality is to put us at risk for new 9/11-style surprises. For answers to important questions about U.S. security, and for some potentially surprising reassurances, this clear and informative book will be invaluable."--BOOK JACKET Contents 8 Figures and Tables 10 Abbreviations 12 Preface to the Paperback Edition 14 Acknowledgments 26 Chapter 1. The Challenge for Small States Seeking to Be Lions Rather Than Lambs 28 Chapter 2. Nuclear Proliferation, Deterrence, and Evolving Security Relationships 42 Chapter 3. Nuclear Security Relationships: Options and Constraints on New Nuclear States 110 Chapter 4. Biological Proliferation and the Future of Warfare 208 Chapter 5. Biological Security Relationships: Options and Constraints on New Bioweapon States 290 Chapter 6. The Bionuclear Security Threat: Implications and Recommendations for Policy 360 References 396 Index 442 About the Author 450 "Preston examines current trends in the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons capabilities, know-how, and technologies for both state and nonstate actors and then projects these trends over the coming ten to fifteen years to assess how they might impact existing security relationships between states. Providing thorough discussion and analysis of a potentially nuclear North Korea and Iran, the current biotechnical revolution, and the future threat of attacks against the United States by terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, Preston offers answers and some potentially surprising reassurances in this accessibly written and informative book."--Jacket Begins with the premise that the biological and nuclear weapons will certainly proliferate despite our desperate desire to slow this process.