French Presidential Elections (French Politics, Society and Culture)

An original and comprehensive study of the sociological and psychological forces driving individual choices in French Presidential elections. Based on a unique comparative analysis of four French presidential contests over the last two decades, this book presents a rigorous examination of long-term and short-term voter motivations. French Presidential Elections is an original and comprehensive study of the sociological and psychological forces driving French voters' choices. Based on a unique comparative analysis of four French presidential contests over the last two decades, the book presents a rigorous examination of the long and short-term motivations that have played a key role in French voters re-electing the Socialist Francois Mitterand in 1988 and bringing the right-wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy to power in 2007. In doing so, the authors address many questions central to an understanding of contemporary French politics, including the effects of the double ballot system on key patterns of electoral behaviour, the evidence of change or continuity in contemporary French politics, and the relative contributions of short and long-term determinants of French voting behaviour in presidential elections. The authors conclude by examining the extent to which electoral behaviour in France is distinct from that observed in other mature democracies Cover......Page 1 Series page......Page 2 Title......Page 4 Copyright......Page 5 Dedication......Page 6 Contents......Page 8 List of Illustrations......Page 11 Foreword......Page 15 Preface......Page 19 1 Introduction......Page 22 1.1 French party competition......Page 23 1.2 French electoral institutions and the presidency......Page 26 1.3 Theories of French elections......Page 30 1.4 Our theoretical approach......Page 33 2 Social Structure......Page 36 2.1 An analytical method of explaining vote choice in France......Page 37 2.2 Socio-demographic determinants of vote choice in France......Page 38 2.3 A bivariate analysis of socio-demographic determinants of the presidential vote in France......Page 41 2.4 A multivariate analysis of socio-demographic determinants of the presidential vote in France......Page 52 2.5 Conclusion......Page 59 3 Class and Patrimony......Page 62 3.1 Occupation, economic sector, and the vote......Page 65 3.2 Occupation, economic sector, and the vote: contemporary bivariate results......Page 69 3.3 Income, patrimony, and the vote......Page 74 3.4 A multivariate analysis of the impact of socioeconomic variables on voting: cumulative results......Page 76 3.5 A multivariate analysis of the impact ofsocioeconomic variables on voting: detailed results......Page 83 3.6 Conclusion......Page 87 4 Left-Right Ideology......Page 89 4.1 The meaning of left-right ideology......Page 90 4.2 Ideological identification vs. party identification......Page 94 4.3 Ideology and the vote: bivariate results......Page 96 4.4 Ideology and the vote: multivariate results......Page 102 4.5 Conclusion......Page 106 5 The Role of Issues......Page 108 5.1 The meaning of issue voting......Page 109 5.2 Economics and the French voter......Page 116 5.3 Economics and the French voter: bivariate relationships......Page 119 5.4 Immigration and the French voter......Page 121 5.5 Immigration and the French voter: bivariate relationships......Page 123 5.6 Economics and immigration: multivariate relationships......Page 125 5.7 Adding Europe to the equation......Page 128 5.8 Conclusion......Page 132 6 Leader Image......Page 134 6.1 Leader image in French electoral studies......Page 135 6.2 Components of leader image......Page 137 6.3 Candidate image in French presidential elections......Page 141 6.4 General and specific evaluations of presidential candidates......Page 146 6.5 The impact of candidate image on French presidential voting......Page 156 6.6 Conclusion......Page 160 7 Campaign Influence......Page 162 7.1 Campaign attentiveness......Page 165 7.2 Time of vote decision......Page 172 7.3 The impact of television......Page 176 7.4 Conclusion......Page 181 8 Conclusion......Page 184 8.1 First round versus second round: the institutional context......Page 185 8.2 Change and continuity in French presidential elections......Page 186 8.3 Is the French electoral system “stalled”?......Page 190 8.4 Short-term vs. long-term factors......Page 191 8.5 Is a theory of French presidential elections possible?......Page 194 8.6 The French voter in perspective......Page 195 Appendix......Page 198 Notes......Page 234 Bibliography......Page 236 Index......Page 248 French Presidential Elections is an original and comprehensive study of the sociological and psychological forces driving French voters' choices. Based on a unique comparative analysis of four French presidential contests over the last two decades, the book presents a rigorous examination of the long and short-term motivations that have played a key role in French voters re-electing the Socialist Fraṅois Mitterand in 1988 and bringing the right-wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy to power in 2007. In doing so, the authors address many questions central to an understanding of contemporary French politics, including the effects of the double ballot system on key patterns of electoral behaviour, the evidence of change or continuity in contemporary French politics, and the relative contributions of short and long-term determinants of French voting behaviour in presidential elections. The authors conclude by examining the extent to which electoral behaviour in France is distinct from that observed in other mature democracies "Like all good scientific works, French Presidential Elections answers important existing questions and poses new ones...Lewis-Beck, Nadeau and Belanger have given us a most useful roadmap that will guide future inquiries. The result of their efforts is an outstanding example of the contemporary science of electoral choice." -From the Foreword by Harold D. Clarke, Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, USA "A superbly crafted inquiry of French elections from Mitterand to Sarkozy, with an uncanny sense for enduring as well as novel patterns of voting. Mindful of the peculiarities of la vie francaise, but also appealing for its broad theoretical outlook on electoral choice." -Helmut Norpoth, Professor, Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University, USA